Chuck Maxey - School of Business - California Lutheran University Ventura County Demographics A...

Chuck Maxey - School of Business - California Lutheran University

Ventura County Demographics

A Presentation to the Ventura County Leadership Academy

September 2005

Ventura County

• Ventura County’s our name.

• Quality of Life is our game.

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Ventura County, California

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Golf Courses

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County Line Beach

Wide-Open Freeways

But we also have…

Growing Traffic Problems

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Not all beaches are created equal!

Farm worker Poverty

Variations in School Effectiveness

In some sense, we are at a crossroads

• Where we don’t want to end up!

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source: US Census American Communty Survey

Ventura Compared to Other US Counties - 2003

• Language– 35th - Speak Language Other

Than English at Home (34.0%)

– 20th - Speak Spanish at Home (27.2%)

• Foreign Born– 37th @ 20.3%

• Education– 120th - % with Bachelor

Degree (28.2%)– 61st - @ with less than High

School Diploma (17.1%)

• Economic Well Being– 14th - Housing Value

of Those with Mortgage

– 55th - Median Family Income ($68,334)

– 166th - % of Children in Poverty (10.0%)

• Commute– 83rd - @26.0 Minutes

Some CA County Comparisons

2000 Census Data Marin Sonoma Orange VenturaPopulation 247,289 458614 2,846,289 753,197Median Age 41.4 37.5 33.4 34.2Education - College Degrees 51.30% 28.50% 30.80% 26.90%Median Household Income $71,715 $53.59 $59,028 $59,730Per Capita Income $44,266 $25,284 $25,481 $24,263Owner-Occupied housing Units 61.0% 60.3% 59.3% 65.3%Unemployment Rate 3.0% 4.3% 5.0% 5.1%Drive to Work 76.2% 87.3% 89.9% 90.1%Median travel Time to Work (min.) 30 21 24 21 Source: FreeDemographics.com

Source: California Quick Facts, US Census

Ventura County - Some Basics

• 2004 Population = 797,699

• Ranks 11th among California Counties

• Growth rate about 1.7% per year

• Land Area = 1845 Square Miles

• Persons per Square Mile = 408.2

• 400,000 Workers; 300,000 Jobs

VC - Ethnically Diverse

• Ethnicity (2000)– 56.8% White Non Hispanic

– 33.4% Hispanic or Latino Origin

– 9.8% Other

• 20.7% Foreign Born

• 33% Speak Language Other Than English at Home

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And Becoming More Diverse

Hispanics Become a Majority

Now - births 2006 - children entering kindergarten 2014 - students entering high school 2017 - new adults entering the labor force 2019 - people newly eligible to vote 2040 - people in middle age 2060 - seniors

VC Population Change Sources

Natural Increase vs. Net MigrationVentura County

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

people

Net Migration Natural Increase

VC Immigration Changes

Domestic Migration vs. Foreign ImmigrationVentura County

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

people

Domestic Migration Foreign Immigration

VC Educational Attainment

• 7.8% - K-9• 9.5% - 9-11• 19.7% HS Grad• Some College 25.5%• AA Degree 7.9%• BS/BA 17,4%• Grad Degree 9.5%

Why Educational Attainment Matters

Median Earnings - US Workers 25 and Older - 2003

$16,655$19,130

$26,518

$30,744$32,336

$42,030

$51,238

$86,221

$70,378

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

< 9th grade Some HS HS Grad Some College AA Degree B's Degree Master'sDegree

Prof. Degree Doctorate

Family Economics

• 12.1% - Children in Poverty

• 31.1% Children in Low Income

• $6,022 Annual Cost of FT Child Care

• 26.3% Food Insecurity• 8,807 Reports of

Abuse

• 22% Students Who Are English Learners

• 31% Disadvantaged Student at 50th % on 4th grade reading

• 34% DS @ 50th % on 8th Grade Math

• 2.4% Annual Latino HS Drop Out rate

Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University

The Local Economy

VC Unemployment

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectUnemployment Rate

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

9.4%

5.0%

6.7%

6.2%

9.0%

4.5%

5.4%

4.9%

California

Ventura County

The Size of the County’s Economy

Nominal Gross County ProductVentura County

20.2121.1722.1724.3126.7631.89

35.4638.5241.0743.7646.50

49.6252.90

56.3059.91

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

$billions

Real Growth Rate of GCP

Real Gross County Product GrowthVentura County

5.2%

2.8%1.9%

7.8%9.4%

18.2%

8.5%

6.4%

3.5%3.7%3.4%3.8%4.0%3.9%3.9%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Job Growth in VC and CA

Job GrowthVentura County and California

0.4%

2.5%

1.3%

0.4%

1.8%

3.8%4.1%

4.7%

1.6%

0.7%1.1%

0.4%

1.5%

-0.8%

1.1%

2.0%

2.8%3.0%3.4%

2.8%3.5%

0.6%

-1.0%-0.4%

0.9%

2.4%

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Ventura County

California

Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University

Thank You Amgen

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VC Jobs by Sector

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectEmployment Distribution (jobs)Ventura County - 2004

20,664

600

18,179

23,417

13,492

5,679

6,612

12,008

34,631

23,126

104,205

42,338

Agriculture

Mining

Construction

Durable Manufacturing

Non-Durable Manufacturing

Trans., Warehousing & Utilities

Information

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Finance, Ins.& Real Estate

Other Services

Government

Other Services include:•Personal & laundry• Repair and maintenance• Civic, Religious, andProfessional• Personal household

VC Salaries by Sector

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectAverage SalariesVentura County - 2004

$22,004

$58,487

$38,044

$53,149

$91,461

$47,101

$65,796

$21,533

$59,646

$35,666

$46,127

Agriculture

Mining

Construction

Durable Manufacturing

Non-Durable Manufacturing

Trans., Warehousing & Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Finance, Ins.& Real Estate

Other Services

Government

VC Job Growth

UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectJob GrowthVentura County and California

-0.8%

0.4%

2.5%

1.3%

0.4%

1.8%

3.9%4.1%

4.7%

1.6%

0.7%1.0%

0.3%

-1.5%

3.4%2.8%

3.5%

-1.0%

0.6%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Ventura County

California

VC 5 Year Job Changes

UCSB Economic Forecast Project5-Year Job Growth by IndustryVentura County - 2004

17.9%

-37.9%23.7%

-10.1%1.7%

5.2%

-19.1%

27.3%

7.9%

43.3%11.5%

-3.6%

AgricultureMining

Construction

Durable ManufacturingNon-Durable Manufacturing

Trans., Warehousing & UtilitiesInformation

Wholesale TradeRetail Trade

Finance, Ins.& Real EstateOther Services

Government

California - Home Ownership 2003

• States range from 78.1% to 54.3%

• US average is 68.3%

• California ranks 48th• California’s rate is

58.9

Median House Prices 2003• no County Median Lower BoundUpper Bound• 1 San Mateo County, CA 664,180 649,495 678,865• 2 San Francisco County, CA 597,493 585,173 609,813• 3 Santa Clara County, CA 587,034 572,204 601,864• 4 Santa Cruz County, CA 575,097 540,041 610,153• 5 Westchester County, NY 502,822 475,415 530,229• 6 Santa Barbara County, CA461,593 403,331 519,855• 7 Alameda County, CA 456,643 445,324 467,962• 8 Contra Costa County, CA 430,312 416,366 444,258• 9 Sonoma County, CA 428,523 411,990 445,056• 10 Monterey County, CA 426,103 397,073 455,133• 11 San Luis Obispo County, CA 420,129 394,373 445,885• 12 Orange County, CA 418,712 409,482 427,942• 13 Fairfield County, CT 406,071 386,246 425,896• 14 Ventura County, CA 394,318 384,634 404,002• 15 San Diego County, CA 385,798 379,879 391,717

Single and Multi-Family Residential PermitsVentura County

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

thousands of permits

Multi-Family Single Family

Housing Prices in VC

Nominal Median Home PriceVentura County

206.6199.9205.7219.3233.8255.0295.1322.6

372.4462.5

593.1682.2

763.8844.6

935.1

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

$ thousands

Housing Permits in 3 Counties

Housing Unit Permits per 1,000 peopleComparison

1.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.33.1

4.0 3.8 3.4 3.33.7

3.2 3.23.8

4.6 4.35.1

5.7

7.3 7.0 6.6

8.17.6

8.88.2 7.8

7.3 6.9 6.9

2.0

3.53.1 3.3 3.2

4.3

6.05.3

4.2

3.2

4.6

3.2

4.3 4.1

3.1 2.9

1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Santa Barbara County San Luis Obispo County Ventura County

Home Prices - VC and CA

Nominal Median Home PriceCalifornia and Ventura

185.0178.2177.3186.5200.1217.5241.4262.4316.1

372.7452.3

514.2565.0

616.6670.1

206.6199.9205.7219.3233.8255.0295.1322.6

372.4462.5

593.1682.2

763.8844.6

935.1

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

$ thousands

Ventura County - lineCalifornia - bar

Median Priced Home?

Affordability: VC and CA

Affordability IndexComparison

0%5%

10%

15%20%25%30%35%

40%45%50%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ventura County California

Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University

Is There a Housing Bubble?

Who saysYes?

Who SaysNo?

Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University

The Pessimist? ÒYes, a bubble exists. Ó

Fundamental demand isgiving way toinvestment buying.

Bubbles rarely burst,but they do deflate.

2006 or 2007 could seeproblems.

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Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University

The Optimist? ÒCalifornia home price gains are

justified by real events.Ó

ÒAlmost surely the growth rate ofVentura CountyÕs home prices willdecrease, but home prices willremain firm.Ó

Wealthy retirees and babyboomers are changing the relevantdemographics.

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One More Topic:

Civic Engagement

Voter Registration 2004

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

CA

VC

CA 68.9% 43.2% 35.5% 4.8% 16.4%

VC 72.9% 37.8% 42.2% 4.9% 15.1%

Registered Democrat Republican Other Independent

Source: California Abstract

VC Voter Participation - March 2004

• Ventura Voting– 47.0% of Registered

– 34.1% of Eligible

• California Voting– 44.3% of Registered

– 30.5% of Eligible

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Chuck Maxey -- CaliforniaLutheran University

Some On-Line Resources Government Performance Project: Grading the

States. http://results.gpponline.org Southern California Association of Governments:

State of the Region 2004 www.scag.ca.gov www.venturaprofile.org - An information cite for

Ventura County hosted by CLU The UCSB Economic Forecast Project www.ucsb-

efp.com The California Forecast www.californiaforecast.com

Thank You!