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CHRISTIAN LUIGA president & CEO
Douglas lubbeCFO
interim REPORT JANUARY – September 2019 Q3
TRENDS AS EXPECTED
SERVICE REVENUE DECLINE SOFTENING
STRONG OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOWEBITDA IN POSITIVE growth TERRITORY
* Like for like, Adjusted EBITDA excluding IFRS 16 impact 2
-2.6% -1.4% -1.3%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
-4% -2% 1%
Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
YoY growth*
YoY growth*
11.6BN
YTD Q3 2019
OPEX REDUCED IN q3 VS INCREASED IN h1
(+1% h1 2019)
(SEK 9.4bn YTD Q3 2018)
-4%Q3 2019
Share buy-back program TO END SPRING 2020
3
RECENT SHAREHOLDER REMUNERATIONSEK in billions
Rational
0
4
8
12
16
2016 2017 2018
Ordinary dividend Share buy-backs
SEK 2 PER SHARE
SEK 2.30 PER SHARE
SEK 2.36 PER SHARE
• The 2018 share buy-back decision based on strong balance sheet and model being flexible
• Carried out as long as credit targets are not breached and strategy allows for it
• In total SEK 10 billion, about 6% of shares to be bought back until AGM 2020
• Current pro forma leverage* of 2.7x
• Credit rating target A-/BBB+
• Slower overall economic outlook
• Positive EBITDA trend but below internal plans
• Sustain flexibility going forward
DECISION TAKEN by the Board not to execute on the remaining SEK 5 billion of the three-
year share buy-back program ambition
* Based on Q3 2019 leverage and including second 2019 dividend tranche and remaining share buy-backs until AGM 2020
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
Service revenue growth Service revenue growth excl. Telia Carrier
-1.3%
-0.9%
COST DRIVEN EBITDA RECOVERY
• Unchanged sequential trend
• Loss of low-margin revenues in Telia Carrier still weights on group
4
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENT*Organic & like for like growth, external service revenues
* 2018 based on the previous organic growth definition (stable FX and M&A excluded) 2019 based on the new definition “like for like growth” (Stable FX and M&A included in current & corresponding period)
6,977 6,735 7,468 7,520 8,268
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
Reported EBITDA Organic/like for like EBITDA growth
• EBITDA turned positive driven mainly by sequential improvements in Sweden and Norway
• Lower costs in central functions also contributed
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENT*SEK million in reported currency, organic & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
+1%
0%
ACCELERATE EXECUTION
5
Strong customer position in core
DRIVE LOYALTY FURTHER
Grow Arpa and
add services
CPS
Hub to digital experiences in homes and offices
Digitalization partner of choice
Cost leadership through scale and synergies
Industry leader in digital impact through UN’s Sustainable Development Goals
5GFWAOCNFiber ICT
Drive loyalty & protect
core revenues
Monetize digi-
talizationgrowth
Strong position in core
services
Drive loyalty
5G
Utilize network superiority New operating model
b2c b2b efficiency
0
1
2
3
MINOR PART OF BASE MIGRATED – 3% arpu GROWTH
6
Postpaid arpu - B2CPostpaid ARPU B2C excluding VAS
New mobile portfolio migration overviewPostpaid B2C subscriptions in million
• IDD* and top-ups temporary burden
IDD* OtherQ3 18 Subscription fee
Top-ups Q3 19
-1%
+3%
• Subscriptions in scope migrated Q3 2019 delivered a +3% ARPU impact
• Gradual impact over the coming ~20 months
subscriptionsNot in scope for CURRENT
migration
* EU international direct dialing regulation, introduced May 2019
Telia subscriptions migrated in Q3 2019Telia subscriptions to be migrated
Again #1 on quality in sweden
7
Telia had the Most satisfied B2B & b2C customers*
#1 also in 2019 on the back of superior product quality, especially relating to
Coverage
Speed
Reliability
* According to SKI (Svenskt Kvalitetsindex, English: Swedish quality index)
B2B (Telia) B2c (halebop)
-0.8%
Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19* Q3 19
Improved long-term b2b trend
8
B2B service revenue GROWTH – all marketsOrganic growth 2018 & like for like growth 2019
• Gradually improving last two quarters in B2B from increased customer relevance
• Main drivers are the large and public segments in Sweden and Norway
• Sweden B2B NPS trending upwards
• Significant improvement in Norway the last two quarters
• IoT growth YTD Q3 >20%
• Sizable deal with E.ON in Sweden on smart electricity meters secured in Q3 (totaling ~1m SIMs over time)
• Good traction in Crowd Insights with two strategic wins in the public transportation space in Q3
* Q2 2019 positively impacted by one-off like revenues in Sweden
OPEX STARTED TO COME DOWN
9
OPEX development*External expenses, like for like
-4%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
• Decrease in Q3 mainly driven by lower resource and marketing costs in Sweden & Norway
• Sweden reduced by 5%
• Norway reduced by 10%
• Positive development estimated to continue also in Q4 from
• Synergy realization in Norway
• New operating model (Finland enrolled from October)
• Easier comparisons
• Other efficiencies
• Full year target of around -2% on OPEX remains
* Including an estimated 2% cost inflation
Staying in the front of digitalization via 5g
10
5GEUR 49.90/Month
Sweden Finland
• Network upgrade and 5G roll-out over 4 years
• Target to fully cover Norway
• Strong FWA business case
• 5G devices and price plans now available
• Initial roll-out program to cover the 7 largest cities
1,000 MBIT
Norway
• The world’s first 5G network underground launched
• Sweden’s first 5G network for remote steering of construction equipment
Full year cash flow outlook unchanged
11
O P E R A T I O N A L F R E E C A S H F L O W
S E K 1 2 - 1 2 . 5 B I L L I O NU N C H A N G E D
• Full year outlook reiterated with outcome likely in the lower end of the range
• EBITDA and CAPEX YTD Q3 combined below internal expectations whereas WC and other items are ahead
• Composition and run-rate into 2020 slightly different vs. view at the beginning of the year
• Currently there is a higher uncertainty on the operational free cash flow level for 2020
Douglas lubbeCFO
interim REPORT JANUARY – September 2019 Q3
LOWER COSTS COMPENSATED FOR REVENUE DECLINE
• Pressure on legacy, mobile and fiber installation revenues in Sweden
• Copper dismantling and legacy pressure in Finland
• Norway flat driven by one-off revenues
• Loss of low-margin revenues in Telia Carrier
Q3 18 SWE DENFIN NOR LIT EST LAT Telia Carrier
Other Q3 19
-1.3%
13
SWEQ3 18 FIN NOR DEN LIT EST LAT Telia Carrier
Other Q3 19
+1%
• Sweden rather neutral given cost reduction
• Service revenue loss and lower equipment margin in Finland
• Synergies, one-offs and lower marketing in Norway
• Solid cost control in central functions
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, external service revenues
EBITDA DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, excluding adjustment items and IFRS 16
B2C improved and B2b normalized vs STRONG q2
• Price adjustments made continued to yield in B2C
• B2B came back down after being impacted by one-off like mobile revenues in Q2
B2B
14
B2C
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTReported currency, external service revenues
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
B2C excl. fiber OTC B2B B2C
-1.1%
-0.9%
-1.9%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENT*Organic & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
* 2018 based on the previous organic growth definition (stable FX and M&A excluded) 2019 based on the new definition “like for like growth” (Stable FX and M&A included in current & corresponding period)
• Positive trend continued driven primarily by lower OPEX and easy COGS comparisons
Changing revenue mix puts pressure on margin
3,258 3,315
1,291 1,366
Q3 18 Q3 19 Q3 18 Q3 19Service revenues EBITDA
-1.8%
• Stable on mobile subscription revenues but loss of interconnect revenues
• Fixed telephony fell from network dismantling
• Pressure on the equipment margin
= Like for like growth excl. IFRS 16 * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items 15
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million in reported currency & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
-5%
• Stable subscription base development
• ARPU uplift driven by both B2C and B2B
15
16
17
18
19
20
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
Subscriptions ARPU+2.4%
= ARPU growth y-o-y
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS AND ARPUTotal subscription base in 000’, blended ARPU in local currency
2,303
3,348
1,1261,794
Q3 18 Q3 19 Q3 18 Q3 19
NORWAY BENEFITED FROM SYNERGIES AND ONE-OFFS
+9%
+0.1%
• Mobile and fixed broadband compensated for pressure on fixed telephony, TV and business solutions
• Synergies supported EBITDA but also a few special items
• Growth in Get from broadband
• B2B segment growth driven by mobile
16
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million in reported currency & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
service REVenues - BB/TV & full B2B segmentSEK million, like for like, external service revenues
= Like for like growth excl. IFRS 16 * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items
Service revenues EBITDA 0
300
600
900
Q3 18 Q3 19
TV Broadband
+1.2%+4%
Underlying
0
200
400
600
800
Q3 18 Q3 19
B2B
+2.7%
361 364
282 311
202
288
Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
Estonia Lithuania Denmark
Q3 18 Q3 19Estonia
Q3 18 Q3 19Denmark
+2%
Q3 18 Q3 19Lithuania
Solid estonia & further danish cost control
-7%+1%
-6.0%
+5.0%
+1.7%
• Another solid quarter for Estonia
• Lithuania back to growth due to less pressure on fixed
• Denmark remains challenging on both mobile & fixed
• Lithuania burdened by higher resource costs
• Estonia benefited from good revenue development
• Solid work on costs in Denmark
17
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTLike for like growth, external service revenues
Adjusted EBITDA DEVELOPMENTSEK million in reported currency & like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
= Like for like growth excl. IFRS 16
Step up in operational free Cash flow
18
02468
101214
Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW developmentSEK billion, rolling twelve months
SEK 13.0 billion
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW bridgeSEK billion, rolling twelve months
• Full year likely at the lower part of the SEK 12-12.5 billion range due to:
• Seasonality
• WC reversal
WC
1.6
FY 2018
1.2
EBITDA less
leasing*
-0.9
CAPEX ex.
licenses
0.3
Other R12 Q32019
10.8
13.0
• WC tailwind of SEK 0.3 billion YTD Q3 from new handset financing program in Norway
• CAPEX decline in Sweden more than offset by increase in Norway (Get consolidation and the handset financing program “Svitsj”)
* Repayment of lease liabilities
net debt and leverage fell in the quarter
• Net debt down Q3 driven by strong cash flow from operations
• Leverage also down but still not enjoying the full run-rate contribution to EBITDA from IFRS 16
• Second dividend tranche of SEK 5 billion to be paid Q4 (pro forma leverage impact of 0.16x)
• Share buy-backs of around SEK 2.5 billion left to do until the AGM 2020 (pro forma leverage impact of 0.08x)
19
3.31.4
1.6
77.7
Q2 19
-8.6
Operations CashCAPEX
Buy-backs Other
75.4
Q3 19
2.65x
2.50x
= Leverage ratio (multiple, rolling 12 months including a full 12 months of Get/TDC Norway)
NET DEBT DEVELOPMENTContinuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion, and leverage ratio
Q&A
REPORTED EBITDA POST IFRS 16 IMPLEMENTATION Q3
Reported sekIllustrative graph
Like for like growthIllustrative graph
Like for like growth ex. Ifrs 16 impactIllustrative graph
21
2019Q3
2018Q3
2018Q3
2019Q3
• Growth in the existing business including/excluding any acquired or disposed businesses in current and corresponding period, as well as including the positive impact from IFRS16
• At stable FX
2019Q3
2018Q3
• Based on like for like growth but 2018 adjusted as if IFRS16 would have been implemented
• At stable FX
• Reported numbers in SEK including impact from M&A and changes in FX as well as the positive impact from IFRS16
FX Numbers incl. IFRS 16M&A Numbers incl. IFRS 16M&A
+18.5% +11.0% +1%
M&AIFRS16 est. adj.
Numbers incl. IFRS 16
DISCLAIMER & FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document contains the use of alternative performance measures (APM’s) to provide readers with additional financial information that is regularly reviewed by management, such as adjusted EBITDA, CAPEX and operational free cash flow. These APM’s should not be viewed as a substitute for Telia Company’s IFRS based figures, but as a complement. APM definitions can be found in Telia Company’s interims reports and Annual and Sustainability Report 2018 and may be defined differently by other companies and are therefore not alwayscomparable to similar measures used by other companies. Telia Company’s management considers these APM’s combined with IFRS performance measures and in conjunction with each other, the most appropriate way to measure the performance of Telia Company.
Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company.
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