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China Affordable Housing Development
China Index Academy
June 2011
Contents
Historical development of China affordable housing1
2
Effect on private housing market3
Key issues to be resolved in 20114
Cross-board comparison and suggestions5
Achievements in 2010
3
20.78%
22.69%
20.17%
16.89%
13.49%
9.64%
6.46% 6.02%5.00%
6.12%
3.55% 2.94%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
单位:万平方米
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
经济适用房销售面积 住宅销售面积 占比
China residential and economic housing sales in GFA
(1999-2010)
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
Economic housing sales Total residential sales EH as % of total residential sales
(10k sqm GFA)
Historical development
4
16.57% 16.37%
14.21%
11.27%
9.16%
6.86%
4.78% 5.10%4.55% 4.32% 4.43%
3.13%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
单位:亿元
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
经济适用房投资额 住宅投资额 占比
Real estate investment on China residential and
economic housing (1999-2010)
Economic housing Total residential EH as % of total residential
(RMB100mn)
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
Historical development
5
Y-Y growth in GFA starts and investment of
China affordable housing (1999-2010)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
经济适用房投资额增长率 经济适用房新开工面积增长率
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
y-y % in real estate investment y-y % in GFA starts
Historical development
Contents
2
1
3
4
5
Historical development of China affordable housing
Effect on private housing market
Key issues to be resolved in 2011
Cross-board comparison and suggestions
Achievements in 2010
7
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
海南
天津
上海
北京
浙江
江苏
宁夏
甘肃
青海
江西
新疆
黑龙
江
广东
安徽
广西
河南
四川
陕西
辽宁
福建
山西
重庆
湖北
吉林
湖南
河北
内蒙
古
贵州
云南
山东
单位:公顷
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Actual land supply for affordable housing in 2010 was 32,400ha, or 25.9% of total residential land supply
Only five provinces and municipalities met the land supply target in 2010
>50% provinces and municipalities achieved <50% of the targets
Actual land supply for affordable housing and
target achievement ratio in 2010
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
(Hectare)
Achievements in 2010
8
Land supply achievement ratio for affordable housing in 2010
Cities 2007 2008 2009 2010
Shanghai ─ 130% 123% 119.29%
Beijing 60% 18% 31% 106.6%
Guangzhou 7% 18% 60% 163.8%
Shenzhen 54% 28% 58% 228.0%
Tianjin 12% 10% 101% 121.2%
Wuhan ─ 44% 96% 150.6%
Chongqing ─ 85% 37% 35.2%
Hangzhou 41% 12% 84% 138%
Nanjing ─ 10% 56% 112.3%
Suzhou ─ ─ 48% 36%
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
Achievements in 2010
9
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
200%
重庆 北京 苏州 成都 南京 深圳 西安 天津 杭州 广州 上海 武汉
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
New start achievement ratio for affordable housing in 2010
Chongqing Beijing Suzhou Chengdu Nanjing Shenzhen Xi’an Tianjin Hangzhou Guangzhou Shanghai Wuhan
Achievements in 2010
10
Highlights of affordable housing development in 2010:
New starts: 5.9mn units
Completion: 3.7mn units
Stock as of 2010: 16.47mn units (219mn of urban households X 7.5% of affordable housing coverage)
Stocks in five years: 52.47mn units (30% of total urban housing stocks)
Funding sources for affordable housing development in 2010:
Central gov’t subsidies: RMB76.5bn
Land revenue: RMB46.4bn (3% of net land transfer income)
Housing provident fund: ~RMB5bn
Planned housing provident fund mortgage: ~RMB49.3bn
Achievements in 2010
3
1
2
4
5
Historical development of China affordable housing
Effect on private housing market
Key issues to be resolved in 2011
Cross-board comparison and suggestions
Achievements in 2010
Contents
12
231485 590
1000 1000
600 600400
733 826
11691410
1701
2051
2474
2983
31.5%
58.7%
50.5%
70.9%
58.8%
29.3%24.3%
13.4%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
单位:万套
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
保障性安居工程 商品住宅 保障与市场比例
(10k units)
Affordable housing
Units start in affordable and private housing sectors
(2008-2015F)
Private housing Affordable housing as % private housing
Effect on private housing market:
dual-track housing system in 5 years
Scenario 1: 20.6% pa growth for private housing starts in 2011-15F
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
13
231485 590
1000 1000
600 600400
826
1169 1169
1487.15
1891.18
2404.99
1169
73331.5%
58.7%50.5%
85.5% 85.5%
40.3%31.7%
16.6%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
单位:万套
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
保障性安居工程 商品住宅 保障与市场比例Affordable housing Private housing Affordable housing as % private housing
(10k units)
Scenario 2: private housing starts flat y-y in 2011-12F; 27.2% pa growth for 2013-15F
Effect on private housing market:
dual-track housing system in 5 years
Units start in affordable and private housing sectors
(2008-2015F)
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
14
Fund and land requirements for affordable housing in 2011-15F
CategoryLand requirement
(k hectares)
Fund requirement
(RMB trn)
Low and public rental housing 60 1.8
Economic and price-capped housing 32.7 1.75
Relocation housing 51.3 1.38
Total 144 4.93
Effect on private housing market:
dual-track housing system in 5 years
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
15
CityNew starts
(10k sqm)
New starts
(10k units)City
New starts
(10k sqm)
New starts
(10k units)
Beijing 100 Wuxi 400
Shanghai 100 Hefei 1000
Guangzhou 1000 Zhengzhou 2211.29 29.24
Shenzhen 1616 24 Jinan 550 10
Tianjin 2635 40 Fuzhou 280
Dalian 118 Nanning 11.6
Nanjing 2000 29 Guiyang 500
Suzhou 5 Nanchang 8
Hangzhou 2000 Urumqi 5.8
Xiamen 1.7 Haerbin 13
Wuhan 1000 Shijiazhuang 10
Chengdu 2000 Yinchuan 2
Chongqing 2700 Sanya 202.3 2.96
Xi’an 1598 31.6
Affordable housing development targets (2011-15F)
Effect on private housing market:
dual-track housing system in 5 years
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
黑龙江
重庆
陕西
江苏
内蒙古
安徽
河南
湖南
吉林
云南
河北
浙江
湖北
四川
辽宁
山东
广东
广西
山西
新疆
福建
贵州
江西
上海
甘肃
北京
天津
青海
海南
宁夏
单位:万套
2011F new start targets for affordable housing
(10k units)
Effect on private housing market:
dual-track housing system in 5 years
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
17
0
10
20
30
40
浙江
江苏
安徽
天津
四川
河北
福建
新疆
陕西
山东
辽宁
广东
河南
北京
青海
江西
黑龙江
广西
宁夏
海南
山西
上海
贵州
甘肃
单位:万套
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
保障房 公租房占比
2011F new start targets of affordable housing and
public rental housing’s proportion
(10k units)
Effect on private housing market:
dual-track housing system in 5 years
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
18
On the demand side: effects to be seen in 2-3 years
Effect of low rental housing and public housing: in 3-5 years
Effect of public rental housing: in 2-3 years
Price-capped housing and relocation housing: in 3-5 years
On the supply side: effects to be seen after 2013
Effect on the new starts of private housing
Supply of affordable housing will peak at >10mn units in 2013
Effect on private housing market:
on both demand and supply sides
19
Supply of affordable and private housing
(2008-2015F)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
单位:万套
保障性安居工程开工 商品住宅开工(假设方案1) 商品住宅开工(假设方案2) 商品住宅竣工
(10k units)
Starts of affordable housing
Effect on private housing market:
to be seen in 2013
Completion of
private housingStarts of private housing (scenario 1) Starts of private housing (scenario 2)
Source:CREIS, fdc.soufun.com
4
1
2
3
5
Historical development of China affordable housing
Effect on private housing market
Key issues to be resolved in 2011
Cross-board comparison and suggestions
Achievements in 2010
Contents
21
Land supply – 41,300ha
Fund requirement– RMB1.4trn
Central government
Land transfer revenue
Housing provident fund
Municipality bonds
Bank loans …
Participants and business model
SOEs
Regional leading developers
Developers with large exposures to suburban areas …
Key issues to be resolved in 2011F
5
1
2
3
4
Historical development of China affordable housing
Effect on private housing market
Key issues to be resolved in 2011
Cross-board comparison and suggestions
Achievements in 2010
Contents
23
Thank You!
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