Chaos Scenario

The ideas in this presentation are taken from an article by Bob Garfield which appeared in Adage.com in April 2005

The conventional advertising model:

Advertiser MediaAgency Customer

Focus on:

Customer Satisfaction

Customer Delight

Customer Value

Focus on:

Customer Buying Behaviour

Customer Motivations

Messages

Proposition

Focus on:

Customer Targeting

Coverage

Content

The emerging model:

Customer

Advertiser

Exchange Value: Customer Needs

Information

Interrogation

The emerging model:

Customer

Advertiser

Media

Exchange Value: Customer Needs

Information

Interrogation

Exchange Value: Entertain

Inform

Educate

Access on demand

The emerging model:

Customer

Advertiser

Media

Network Groups

Exchange Value: Customer Needs

Information

Interrogation

Exchange Value: Entertain

Inform

Educate

Access on demand

Exchange Value: Information

Opinions

Experience

The emerging model:

Customer

Advertiser

Media

Network GroupsAgency

Exchange Value: Customer Needs

Information

Interrogation

Exchange Value: Entertain

Inform

Educate

Access on demand

Exchange Value: Information

Opinions

Experience

Exchange Value: ??????????

US network TV audiences are declining by an average of 2% every year (Nielson)

The cost of reaching 1,000 households in US TV Prime Time rose from $7.64 in 1994 to $19.85 in 2004

Conventional media measures:

Reach

Frequency

Exposure

Cost per Thousand

What advertisers want to measure now:

Outcomes

Engagement

Effectiveness

Video on Demand

Vs

Prime Time TV

Network TV still delivers the largest audiences…. for now

TV is…”the last surviving conglomeration of human beings in the living room”

- Geoffrey Frost, chief marketing officer of Motorola.

Mass marketing via TV is losing cost-effectiveness

”There’s been research that the real cost of obtaining 30 seconds of the consumer’s attention is the same in 2005 as it was before the invention of television.” - Shawn Burns, MD of Wunderman, Paris.

Conventional Media:

Advertisers are paying more and more for fewer and fewer viewers.

But what else can deliver broad-based audiences?

What will replace TV?

• Internet• Video on Demand• Smartphones• Internet / Cable

Smaller total audiences = Fragmentation

“Opportunities to have a conversation with small clusters of consumers.”

Consumers are no longer passive receivers.

Consumers actively seek the content and information they

want.

Large budget players are on the same playing field as small scale advertisers and content

creators:

Bloggers, podcasters, vloggers, virals

Broadcast TV

Mass media

Mass marketing

Online

Micro media

Permission marketing

The big questions:

• Broadband– How many have access?

• Capacity– Who/How will create

content?• Quality

– Who will want to watch content?

• Finance– Who will pay for content?

• Legislation– Peer-2-Peer: Who will

protect creator rights?

• Cost– As cost of online

advertising rises, will cost advantage be eroded?

• Suitability– Will content be suitable for

advertising?– Will social networks be

suitable advertising media?• Infrastructure

– Who is going to create and administer online content?

• Preparedness– Nothing is ready!

For further information:

http://adage.com/adreview/post?article_id=143120

http://www.bobgarfield.net/adAge.php

http://www.bobgarfield.net/video.php?video=video2

http://thechaosscenario.magnify.net/

http://adage.com/garfieldtheblog/

Thank You

Created by: Steve Raybould

steveraybould@btinternet.com