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Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Mountain Development in
the AndesKathmandu, Nepal, 4 April 2012
International Expert Consultation on Mountains and Climate Change
Regional context
Climate change contextClimate in the Andes• Complex climate system with
extreme natural gradients in temperature and precipitation
• Dominated by climate systems over Pacific Ocean, Amazon and Caribbean
• Altitudinal gradients (temperature)• N‐S and E‐W gradients
(precipitation)• Seasonality more pronounced in
south• Lack of information on current
climate conditions (e.g. rainfall over the Andes at suitable scales for modelling)
Future predictions• Overall, temperature increase
rainfall, seasonality uncertain
Regions where >80% of models coincide in direction of change of precipitation
Buytaert & Julián Ramírez‐Villegas in press
Impacts of climate change
• Biomes – vertical shifts (higher biomes only loose, lower ones loose and gain)
GCr Par PnH PnX BMs BMsd Arb PrP
Región A2.1039
Are
aK
m2
010
020
030
0
PérdidaEstableGanancia
Tovar et al. in press PNAS
• Species range shifts in the Andes9457 Plants (shaded)1555 Birds (non-shaded)
Ramírez‐Villegas et al. Unlimited dispersal No dispersal
Impacts of climate change• Water availability (how much and when)
Local variation – changes in water availability due to changes in rainfall seasonality and regulatory capacity of ecosystems and glaciers
Influence of glaciers: ‐ In the north, paramos most important factor for water regulation throughout year‐ Glaciers (and puna) more important in the Central Andes for maintaining water production during the dry seasons, e.g. maintaining grazing systems
Climate change effects exacerbated (or surpassed?) by land use change, poor governance, inadequate policies, insufficient infrastructure, inefficient use and recycling of water
Relative change (%) in water availability for combined impacts (temp + rainfall) under climate change (Buytaert et al 2010)
Other drivers of change
• Often difficult to distinguish between effects of different drivers (e.g. changes in land use and climate change in terms of water regulation) Combined effects Integral, flexible
policies
Photo: J. Voss
Other drivers of change in the Andes
Population growth Especially in urban areas
▫ % in urban areas in Andean countries
▫ 2010: 69% to 91%▫ 1990: 55% to 87%
▪ Mountain cities - higher population density
▪ Lowland population (e.g. Lima) on Pacific coast depend on Andes for water
▪ Concentration of demand for water in high Andean cities (e.g. Bogota, Quito, La Paz)
CIESIN, 2011
0.0E+00 2.0E+07 4.0E+07 6.0E+07 8.0E+07
0 ‐ 499
500 ‐ 1499
1500 ‐ 2499
2500 ‐ 3499
>= 3500
Andean countries urban area pop. by altitude
Other drivers of change in the Andes
Change in land cover and use▪ Agricultural expansion (e.g.
influenced by bilateral trade agreements)
▪ Upward shift in agriculture (due to more suitable areas at higher altitudes)
▪ Increase in agricultural area and harvest (agro-chemicals, lowland especially, but water from Andes)
▪ Land degradation – loss of capacity for water regulation 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Tonn
es/100
0 ha
of agricultural land
Prod
uctio
n (ton
nes) / Area
harvested
(ha)
Production
Area harvested
Fertilizer use
Other drivers of change in the Andes
Change in land cover and use Mining (expansion, continued
reliance of economic systems on extractive industries)
Deforestation, ecosystem degradation▫ South America: largest net loss
of forest 1990-2010 (FAO2010)
▫ Decrease from 38% to 35% of forested area lost 1990 - 2010
Cuesta et al 2009
• Institutional frameworks and policy ‐ decentralization, participation• e.g. Local government (e.g. environmental authorities, water
committees), regional policies, citizen’s participation in budgets, decision‐making
• Implementation of International Agreements (e.g. CBD, UNFCCC)• International to local level ‐ strategies, programmes, plans• NBSAPs – to regional level• Adaptation actions (regional, national, local)• Increase in protected areas (12% Andes), other conservation areas
(designation process leads to awareness, effectiveness?), management instruments
• Regional Integration – Andean Community• e.g. Regional Biodiversity Strategy, Andean Environmental Agenda
Progress in Sustainable Mountain Development
• Specific Mountain Initiatives• Ramsar Wetland Strategy, Vicuña Convention, Andes Initiative, National
mountain committees (Mountain Partnership), AMA, CONDESAN• Many events, meetings, conferences on mountain issues and
development
• Other trends• increased focus on institutionalization of learnings• integration of development and conservation issues• increased focus on climate change and recently disaster management• changes in international cooperation as % of GDP
Progress in Sustainable Mountain Development
Key policy actions• Protect mountain ecosystems to safeguard water supplies
e.g. Paramos, puna, legal protection, mining no‐go zones, basin‐wide responsibility for strengthening upstream‐down‐stream partnerships
• Climate change adaptation addressed specifically for mountainsregional, national and local policies with flexible approaches (adaptive management) given uncertainty, further develop water management policies
• Innovate agricultural production in mountain areasrecuperate knowledge (especially of native products), work towards food security, protection of biodiversity with responsible agriculture, market access
• Transform current mining methods with responsible mining codespolicy formulation, push for more efficient use of mining products
Key policy actions• Effective communication mechanisms within government
i.e. between government departments (with overlapping jurisdictions); between government levels (local and national)
• Use regional cooperation mechanisms to share and replicate experiencese.g. where decentralization and increased citizens’ participation has been beneficial to sustainable mountain development
• Improve coordination/communication to ensure knowledge generated is applied to SMDe.g. between state universities in mountain areas, research NGOs, government bodies
• Implement decision support systems at local and regional levelse.g. for water management and climate change adaptation
Creatingjoint solutions
from our diversityusing our knowledge
in harmony with the environment
condesan@condesan.orghttp://www.condesan.org
Thank you
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