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Food security challenges for the future -Agricultural productivity and the growing role of R&D
Joachim von BraunCenter for Development Research (ZEF)
University of Bonn
AGRINATURA Board meeting, ZEF April 2013
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
World food security?
• Availability
• Access
• Nutritional value
• Stability
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
The Changing Equation of World Food and Agriculture
Supply =Land
Water
Inputs & Transport costs
Workforce
Climate change
Farm size structure
Technology
DemandIncome growth
Poverty and inequality
Consumer behavior
Bioenergy
Biomass (CO2)
Prices, Markets & TradePrices and speculationInternational tradeSupermarkets
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Which time subscripts „t“ are relevant for which nutrition problems?
• Long-term (decade/year):
nutritional status (stunting);
water-, land-use; climate, technology; polit. change; investments
• Medium-term (months):
nutrient deficiencies (Cal., micro-nutrients);
weather, grain stocks
• Short-term (weeks, days):
nutrition shocks in early childhood;
trade shocks (export bans), shocks in commodity and financialmarkets
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
World population 2050- from 7 to 9 Billion -
Source: Worldmapper 2009.
The 9 Billion will eat like 12 Billion
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Increased Global Food Demand 2010 – 2021 ca. + 20% per decade
Quelle: OECD – FAO Agriculture Outlook 2012-2020, 2012.
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Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Nexus Perspective neededwater - food - energy
Bonn2011 Conference: The water, energy and food security nexusSolutions for the Green Economy, 16-18 Nov. 2011
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Energy and biofuels
• Energy prices now affect not just agric. input prices, but also output prices strongly via biofuel-land competition
• Increased biofuel demand contributed to 30% of increase of grain prices by 2008
© Dave Reede Photography.
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Increase of global energy consumption by 40 % in 2030
Biomass for energy use will grow
Source: IEA, 2009
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Climate change implications for agriculture
• Substitution to drought resistant crop species
• Demand for development of drought resistant varieties
Dry DaysSoil Moisture
Source: IPCC 2007. Figure shows changes for 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
How did farm size change in past 40 years (1970 – 2010)
Change of
numbers of
farms (%)
Average size
in (ha)
from – to
China + … 0,6 - 0,4
Africa + … 1,6… (2007)
India + 58 2,2 - 1,2
Brazil + 6 59 - 68
US - 26 374 - 418
Sweden - 47 32 - 43
Source: FAOSTAT, US Census Bureau, IBGE, Statistics Sweden, Eurostat
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Total arable land is limited
• Climate change, urbanization and degradation affectarable land
• Protection of forests imposes further environmental limits
1220
1240
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
1360
1380
1400
1420
Global Arable Land (Mio ha)
Source: FAOSTAT
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Land shortage and land degradationconstrain production
42% of the poor live in degraded areasSource: Bai et al., 2008.
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Water use and supply
Germany is No. 7 in terms of water foot print
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group, 2009.
Fresh water withdrawal is 60% above sustainable supply
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Investment in land(sales and long term lease)
Source: Land Matrix Homepage (accessed May 6, 2012)
Data: Land Matrix Project, April 2012
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Global Agric. Production Growth
Annual growth rates (%)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2002-2011 2012-2021
Source: OECD – FAO Agriculture Outlook 2012, 2012.
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Yield gaps: where may they be tapped?
Source: N.D Mueller et.al. Nature 2012
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Innovation feeds the world
Source: IFPRI, 2012 Global Policy Report, 2013.
Sources of productivity growth in world agriculture
Beitrag vonTFP
Inputintensivierung
Bewässerung
Anbauflächen-erweiterung
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Innovation: Economic Regime and Agriculture
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Mauritania
Nepal
Cote d'IvoireBangladeshSudan
Ethiopia
Guinea
EritreaSierra Leone
Myanmar
Haiti
Tajikistan GhanaZambia
LesothoYemen, Rep.
Burkina Faso
Mali RwandaTanzania
Madagascar
Mozambique
Brazil
China
Guatemala
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Kenya
Senegal
UgandaMalawi
Bolivia
Pakistan
Nigeria
Zimbabwe
BeninCameroon
12
34
56
Inn
ova
tion
0 1 2 3 4 5EconIncentiveRegime
Low Innovation - Low Incentive Low Innovation - High Incentive
High Innovation - Incentive High Innovation - Low Incentive
Source: Pangaribowo and Gerber (2013), calculation based on KEI 2012
Econ and Institution Regime: tariff and nontariff barriers, regulatory quality and rule of lawSource: KAM (2012) and WDI (2010)
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Imbalances in world food trade(cereals, flour, oils, feed for animal production)
Source: Cargill.
Trade surplusses and deficits in Mio. t
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Food price crises 2008 and 2011: New price levels, volatility, extreme spikes
Quelle: FAO, FAO Giews.
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Pre
is in
$ p
ro T
on
ne
Reispreis $/t
Weizenpreis $/t
Globaler Getreidepreisindex
Ind
ex
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
But: Area decisions almost as volatile as yieldoutcome
Area uncertainty a challange for
• input industry• storage decisions• food security
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Which prices drive food prices (and vice versa)?
• input prices
• land price
• labor wages
• water price (costs)
• energy price
• financial asset (commodities)
All these prices are more interlinked
And volatility is a disincentive for investment
Food prices
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Biomass and its products -- Bioeconomy
Biomass
Foods and beverages______________
Bio-energy
Staples / animal feeds
Bio materials
Biochemicals
Source: Bioeconomy Council, Germany, 2010
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Towards zero waste and reduced losses
Source: J. Gustafson et.al. FAO 2011
Waste and losses are very different things, and Kilogram is not appropriate unit of measurement
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
Strategic food and nutrition security agenda1. Risk prevention: Promotion of agriculture productivity across
value chains with research and technology and investment (public and private) to address price levels and risks on supply side in sustainable ways.
2. Risk management: Facilitation of reduced market volatility and spikes with appropriate stocks, more trade openness, appropriate regulation, and international cooperation.
3. Social protection: productive safety nets, (conditional) cash transfers; expanded action for nutrition security of children.
4. Insurance systems: insurance of crops, peoples health and disabilities, public insurance mechanisms for catastrophic events in poor countries (e.g. regional droughts, climate shocks)
Joachim von Braun, ZEF, March 2013
EU science agenda: key for international food security
• Sustainable food security under climate change: modelling, benchmarking and policy research,
• Sustainable growth and intensification of agricultural systems under current and future resource availability,
• Assessing and reducing trade-offs between food production, biodiversity and ecosystem services,
• Adaptation to climate change and Greenhouse gas mitigation
See: FACCE – JPI, Strategic Research Agenda. Agriculture, Food Security, and Climate Change 2012
www.faccejpi.com
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