Causes and pathways of tropical deforestation - UNFCCC · 2013-05-31 · No universal policy for...

Causes and pathways

of tropical deforestation

Prof. Eric Lambin

Departement of GeographyUniversity of Louvain

Belgium

Interannual variability in rates of deforestation

Causes of tropical deforestation

Meta-analyses of case studies:

• Synergetic combinations of multiple factors at different spatial & temporal scales.

• At short time scales: mostly individual and social responses to new opportunities and constraints created by markets and policies, and mediated by local institutional factors.

• At longer time scales: also demographic factors: population increase & decrease, breakdown of extended families, migration.

• development of the forest frontiers by weak state economies

• institutions in transition from communal to private land ownership

• loss of entitlements to environmental resources (e.g. due to encroachmentby other land uses) leading to an ecological marginalisation of the poor

• urbanization followed by changes in consumption patterns and in income distribution

• new economic opportunities linked to new market outlets, changes in economic policies, or capital investments

• inappropriate policy intervention

• macroeconomic shocks and structural adjustment policies

Cluster of inter-related factors with direct or

indirect, intended or unintended impacts on forests

• national demand for land

• policies to develop the forest frontier

• capital investments in logging and agricultural activities

• population movements

• the commodification of the economy

• development of urban markets

• infrastructure expansion

Lambin and Geist (2003)

Driving forces of tropical deforestationby scale of influence

77%94%74%82%11%11-94%Several scales: global to local

interplays

---1%-0-1%Global

7%2%3%14%1%1-14%National

16%4%23%2%88%2 - 88%Local

Cultural or socio-political

factors(n=101)

Policy and institutional

factors(n=119)

Technological factors

(n=107)

Economic factors

(n=123)

Demographic factors*

(n=93)

All factors(range)

(N=152 cases)

in % of all cases

Scales

* 6 cases of ‘population pressure’ (unspecified) could not be attributed to scales.

n = 152 cases

Latin American (especially Amazonia) pathway of deforestation

• a phase of extraction and harvesting of timber plus initial colonization,

• generally followed by the establishment of colonists with a greater access

to capital,

• competition to define or redefine the rules of land and capital access takes

place, frequently involving violent conflict,

• winners and losers : those increasing land holdings and those

pushed/pulled onwards to expanding the agricultural frontier further,

where land is still cheap,

• for the winners : large-scale land conversion to pasture follows since

cattle provides the largest economic rewards, given market conditions

and/or government subsidies,

• this, in turn, drives up land prices, leading to further land consolidation.

Forest transition in Denmark

Source: Mather et al., 1998.

Forest cover trends, Jitai Basin / Jiangxi, SE China

Source:Zhao Shidong et al., 2001.

Forest transition

Area

Time

forest cover

triggers positive feedbacks negative feedbacks

transition

cropland

Two processes of forest transition

Economic development path: Economic development has

created enough non-farm jobs to pull farmers off of the land,

thereby inducing the spontaneous regeneration of forests in old

fields

Forest scarcity path: A scarcity of forest products has

prompted governments and landowners to plant trees

Rudel et al. 2005

Halting deforestation?

Area

Time

positive feedbacks

… or accelerating the forest transition?

Area

Time

positive feedbacks

No universal policy for controlling tropical deforestation.

Find the right balance and the correct mix of factors most suitable for a particular region.

Many factors that are among the causes of deforestation are also part of the solution,

e.g., land-use policies, economic development, institutional arrangements, transportation infrastructure.

Policy implications

Policy packages should always include:

1. Improving governance, fighting corruption,

2. Decentralizing forest management with a concomitant increase in the local capacity to enforce law,

3. Developing public participation in environmental planning,

4. Designing creatively new institutional instruments(including market-based ones).

Difficulties• Weak state control on forests: globalisation, economic priorities

• Difficult to attribute reduced deforestation to state policies:complex causal clusters, inter-annual variability, forest transition

• International leakage: international trade in forest and agricultural products

• Permanence of avoided deforestation: no quick fix to deforestation,

forest transition linked to economic modernization

• Multiple users of forests: winners & losers, markets for forest services

with local value

• Measurement uncertainties: consistency of time series, forest degradation

& fragmentation