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Can We Quantify the Risk Can We Quantify the Risk Principle?Principle?
Kimberly Gentry Sperber, Ph.D.
Today’s SessionToday’s Session
• Review of the risk principle• Discussion of ways to operationalize the
risk principle• What does the research say about
operationalizing the risk principle into practice?
• What counts as dosage?• Findings from Talbert House dosage
study• Questions unanswered
The Risk PrincipleThe Risk Principle
• Identify those offenders with higher probability of re-offending
• Target those offenders with higher probability of re-offending
• Targeting lower risk offenders can increase recidivism
• Referred to as the WHO principle
2002 UC Study of Halfway 2002 UC Study of Halfway Houses and CBCFsHouses and CBCFs
Findings on the Risk Principle
Increased Recidivism
Reduced Recidivism
Treatment Effects For High Risk Offenders
-34
-18-15 -14
-6 -5-2 -2
2 3 3 35 6 7 8 8 9 10 10
12 12 12 13 13 1315
21 2224 25
2730
3234
0
10
20
30
40
-10
-20
-30
-40
P rob
abil
ity
o f R
einc
arc e
r ati
o n
2010 UC Study of Halfway 2010 UC Study of Halfway Houses and CBCFsHouses and CBCFs
Findings on the Risk Principle
Treatment Effects for Low RiskTreatment Effects for Low Risk
Treatment Effects for High RiskTreatment Effects for High Risk
GeneralizabilityGeneralizability
• To whom does the risk principle apply?– Adults– Juveniles– Males– Females– Sex Offenders– Violent Offenders
Operationalizing the Risk Operationalizing the Risk PrinciplePrinciple
• Separate living quarters• Separate groups• Risk-specific caseloads• Varying dosage by risk• Varying length of stay by risk
What Does the Research Say?What Does the Research Say?
• Lipsey (1999)– Meta-analysis of 200 studies on
serious juvenile delinquents– Minimum length of stay of 6 months– Approximately 100 hours
What Does the Research Say?What Does the Research Say?
• Bourgon and Armstrong (2005)– 620 incarcerated males– 12 months recidivism rates– 100 hours to reduce recidivism for
moderate risk OR few needs• 100 hours not enough for high risk
– 200 hours for high risk OR multiple needs
– 300+ hours for high risk AND multiple needs
Talbert House Dosage StudyTalbert House Dosage Study
• Conceptual understanding of the risk principle versus operationalization of the risk principle in real world setting to achieve maximum outcome
• “Can we quantify how much more service to provide high risk offenders?”
Talbert House Dosage StudyTalbert House Dosage Study
• Implemented new dosage protocol at CBCF to better align risk/need and treatment dosage– Implementation began 1/08
• Minimum hours dictated by risk level (LSI-R)
• Maximum hours dictated by individual criminogenic needs
The ProgramThe Program
• 100-bed CBCF for adult male felons
• Prison diversion program• Average length of stay = 4 months• Serves 3 rural counties• Cognitive-behavioral treatment
modality
Community Correctional Center Risk Level Structure Guide
MediumHigh High Medium Low/ Moderate Low
LSI Score Range 34+ 31-33 24-30 19-23 0-18Length of Stay Target (days) 147 133 119 105 60
Corrective Thinking 200 180 132 92 52AOD 62 54 46 38 28Individualized Relapse Prevention 21Anger Management 24 24 24 24 if neededDomestic Violence 24 15 15 15 if neededVocational* 15 15 15 15 8Life Skills* 16 16 16 16 8Personal Development* 10 10 10 10 if needed
*not counted in dosage total
Total hours available: 351 314 258 210 117
MethodologyMethodology
• Sample size = 689 clients• Clients successfully discharged between
8/30/06 and 8/30/09– 300 clients pre-implementation– 123 clients during implementation– 266 clients post-implementation
• Excluded sex offenders• Dosage defined as number of group hours per
client• Multiple measures of recidivism – arrest,
conviction, reincarceration– All offenders out of program minimum of 12 months
Sample CharacteristicsSample Characteristics
• 88.8% White• Average age 33• 59.7% single, never married• 43.2% less than high school education• 95.5% Felony 3 or higher
– Almost half Felony 5
• 80% moderate risk or higher• 88% have probability of substance
abuse per SASSI
low moderate high overall0-99 Tx hours 39 52 46
100-199 Tx hours 26 45 81 43200+ Tx hours 43 57 48
Recidivism Rates by Treatment Intensity and Risk Levels
Average low=78, Moderate= 155 High =241
What Counts as Dosage?What Counts as Dosage?
• Activities/techniques based on evidence-based approaches– CBT, Structured Social Learning
AND
• Activities/techniques targeting criminogenic needs
Unanswered QuestionsUnanswered Questions
• Is there a saturation effect?– What is maximum return on
investment?• What counts as dosage?• Does dosage requirement vary by
setting?– Halfway house versus CBCF
• What is the impact of sequencing of dosage?
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