Building the Smart Future - Semiconductor Digest€¦ · Home Automation=16B connected devices by...

Building the Smart Future

CONFAB 2015

Jim Feldhan President

jimf@semico.com

Global Economics Affect Semiconductors

World

GDP Consumer

Confidence

Regional

Conflicts

Aging

Population

Oil

Prices

© Copyright Semico Research Corp.

Our environment which we can not control but must manage

World GDP: A Mixed Bag

GDP Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China 10.3% 9.5% 8.1% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2%

India 7.4% 7.8% 4.5% 5.4% 4.8% 7.0%

Korea 6.1% 4.3% 2.9% 3.0% 3.6% 3.3%

Brazil 7.5% 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 0.8% 1.5%

U.S. 2.8% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8%

EU 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% -0.3% 0.8% 1.4%

Japan 3.9% -0.5% 2.0% 2.5% -0.8% 0.7% Source: Semico Research Corp. and Government Statistics

3

Mobility Driving the Market

Source: Semico Research Corp.

• Smartphone • Up 21% in 2014 • Up 14% in 2015

• Tablet • Up 24% in 2014 • Up 16% in 2015

• Notebook/Convertible • Up 10% in 2014 • Up -1.3% in 2015

4

Source: Semico Research Corp.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Smartphones

Million of Units

Semiconductor Forecast

5

IPI Points to Growth in 2015

Source: Semico Research IPI Report

6

World Semiconductor Forecast

7

Source: Semico Research Corp.

Dollars in Millions

Wafer Demand

The Smart Future

9

Where’s the IoT growth?

Source: Semico Research Corp.

**IoT Less Mobile Computing & Smartphone Units

10

Wearables

Wearable Air Quality Sensor

� allergens like pollen � car exhaust, � fine dust, and � smoke � UV sensor to help users track sun exposure � as well as temperature and humidity sensors � $199

Connecting with your environment

2 way Communication with your Pet

IoT and Animal Wearables

Action Heroes Finding Wandering Fido

The Athlete Really are you Kidding!!

Animal IoT isn't just about cats & dogs

Industrial Sector Will Lead the IoT Revolution

Smart Lighting

Source: Philips

Hospitality

Street Lighting Office & Industrial

Retail & Public Venues

Outdoor/Area Lighting

Architectural Lighting

Video Screens/Ads

1/5th of global electricity is used

for

Lighting

Smart Lighting JVs

Industrial IoT Air Quality Monitoring

Source: Perkin Elmer

• Standard electronics • Compact low power

batteries • Ingestible materials

considerations Source: Medtronics

Real time sweat analysis using wearable micro-fluidic devices • MC10 BioStamp hydration sensor • Electrozyme tattoo biosensor

analyzes chemical constituents of sweat

• galvanic skin sensors

Sports, Medical Monitoring and Diagnostics Smart Pills Fluid Analysis

Sports and Health

A New IoT Era Smart Renewable Energy

Powerwall

• 10 kWh weekly cycle and 7 kWh daily cycle models

• Guaranteed for 10 years • Sufficient to power most homes during

peak evening hours • Multiple batteries may be installed

together for homes with greater energy need

• Up to 90 kWh total for the 10 kWh battery and 63 kWh total for the 7 kWh battery

Powerpack • Aimed to support power needs for businesses

with larger than 90 kWh demand of capacity for weekly cycles or 63 kWh of capacity for daily cycles

• Designed to scale infinitely, the Powerpack is a 100 kWh tower available in a minimum of 500 kWh capacity groupings. Source: Tesla

Home Automation=16B connected devices by 2020

21

IoT End Markets Fueling ICs

• 8, 16 and 32 bit MCUs • Sensors/MEMs (optical, pressure,Gyro, Accel etc.) • Communication devices ( Wi-Fi, Bluetooth) • Low power SRAMs • Embedded NVM (eNVM) • Analog • Power Management ICs ( & energy harvesting) • Embedded SoCs

Basic Building Blocks for IoT

23

Sensor Hub Innovations

24

Sensor Fusion Ecosystem (2014)

25

Sensor Fusion Ecosystem (2015)

ARM’s View of IoT

Source: ARM and Semico Research

Total MEMS Shipments by End Markets

28

MEMS ASPs

• Falling prices driven by high volume consumer markets • Smartphones drive technology and innovation • Increasing integration and package innovations • Other markets take advantage of trend

Factors for IoT to Takeoff

• Reduced costs of sensors, MCUs, RF, LEDs – Lower manufacturing costs – Move to 300mm for efficiency, high volume

• Low Power • Distributed vs Centralized Processing • Interoperability

– Manageable number of standards – Open source framework for apps

• Security – Connectivity & privacy

30

Source: Semico Research Corp.

Summary

• Consumer will still upgrade smartphones every 2 years or less over forecast period – More features and functionality the driver – Continued migration from feature to smart

• IoT the next big wave. – Broad based semiconductor tech usage – Sensor and MEMs adding data for processing

• Moores Law still alive -- just getting more complicated requiring novel innovation

Source: Semico Research Corp.