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Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean , Brazilian and Uruguayan Pampas. Principal Scientists Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and
develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems
in the Argentinean , Brazilian andUruguayan Pampas
Principal Scientists
• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
• Gilberto Cunha, Brazil• J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil
• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay
• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia
Establishing
Applied Systems Analysis
Networks
for
Building Regional Adaptation Capacity
(AIACC LA 27)
Agriculture Crops:Wheat
Abiotic FactorsBiotic Factors
WHEAT DISEASES
Powdery mildew Glume blotch
Tan spot
Spot blotch
Take allBYDV
Blast
Leaf rust
Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables
FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT
Mycotoxins
DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat zero Barley
Maize Flour ? DON, Fuminosin,...
CROP MODELS
DSSAT - Decision Suport System for Agrotechnology Transfer
Wheat Model (Soil-H20, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables)
FHB Sub-modelHeading starts
+PATHOGENSUSCETIBLE
HOST
=
FHB
+WEATHER(P, T ºC)
FHB Model
WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO
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2002241
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Inf.Heads: 0
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2002242
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Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002243
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Heads: 16
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2002244
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002245
0.04
Flowers: 114
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002246
0.0
Flowers: 156
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 495
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002247
0.0
Flowers: 212
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 719
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1078
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002248
0.0
Flowers: 134
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 886
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1418
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1595
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002249
0.4
Flowers: 225
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 486
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1636
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 1951
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1788
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002250
0.0
Flowers: 198
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 713
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 502
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 1926
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1839
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1453
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002251
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Flowers: 243Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 889
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1497
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 732
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 2331
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1958
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1294
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002252
0.0
Flowers: 172
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 1094
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1923
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 2471
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1187
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 2652
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1885
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1136
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002253
0.0
Flowers: 287
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 798
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 2355
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 3151
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3361
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1732
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 2399
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1555
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 843
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002254
0.0
Flowers: 287
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 798
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 2355
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 3151
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3361
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1732
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 2399
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1555
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 843
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002255
0.35
Flowers: 238
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:927
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1027
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 2861
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3149
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 2998
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1453
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1879
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1092
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers:536
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002256
0.3
Flowers: 176
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:971
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 3,59
Flowers: 1724
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 4,95
Flowers: 1183
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 5,93
Flowers: 3035
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 6,76
Flowers: 2878
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 5,03
Flowers: 2253
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 4,19
Flowers: 855
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 3,15
Flowers: 1200
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 1,04
Flowers:622
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0,62
Flowers: 253
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0,31
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002257
0.14
Flowers: 32
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:1119
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 2003
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.65
Flowers: 2652
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 10.71
Flowers: 1509
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.08
Flowers: 3127
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 9.36
Flowers: 2442
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 7.80
Flowers: 1694
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 5.85
Flowers: 468
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 2.85
Flowers:709
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.17
Flowers: 306
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.58
Flowers: 83
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.09
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002258
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:647
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 2370
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 3194
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 12.47
Flowers: 3455
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 13.10
Flowers: 1900
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.38
Flowers: 2630
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 9.48
Flowers: 1823
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.11
Flowers: 1102
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 3.69
Flowers:211
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.67
Flowers: 333
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.71
Flowers: 95
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.13
Flowers: 76
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.02
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002259
0.4
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:303
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 1048
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 2916
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 12.47
Flowers: 3256
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 13.10
Flowers: 3174
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.38
Flowers: 1682
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 9.48
Flowers: 2136
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.11
Flowers: 1335
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 3.69
Flowers:733
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.67
Flowers: 125
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.71
Flowers: 113
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.13
Flowers: 97
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.02
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002260
0.60
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 393
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 1220
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 3108
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 18.86
Flowers: 3001
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 17.13
Flowers: 2416
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 14.28
Flowers: 1043
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 10.70
Flowers: 1384
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 6.09
Flowers:776
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads:3.11
Flowers: 355
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 1.43
Flowers: 43
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.37
Flowers: 112
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.14
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002261
0.42
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 19
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 567
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 1593
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 27.50
Flowers: 3258
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 25.78
Flowers: 2610
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 21.48
Flowers: 1880
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 16.11
Flowers: 645
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 9.69
Flowers: 854
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 5.27
Flowers: 401
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 2.51
Flowers: 123
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.73
Flowers: 48
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.50
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002262
0.45
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 428
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 3501
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 1977
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 2734
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 26.52
Flowers: 1945
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 19.89
Flowers: 1224
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 12.21
Flowers: 317
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 6.79
Flowers: 407
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 3.28
Flowers: 127
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.98
Flowers: 117
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.76
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002263
0.36
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 2950
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 1368
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 1759
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 2228
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1431
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 14.94
Flowers: 820
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 8.42
Flowers: 187
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4,09
Flowers: 141
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.26
Flowers: 135
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.03
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002264
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 2239
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 567
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 1029
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 938
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1420
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 811
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 382
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 56
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 130
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002265
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 462
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 448
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 639
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 852
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 403
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 125
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 53
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002266
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1222
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 316
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 408
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 128
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 120
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002267
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1464
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 850
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 209
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 151
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 150
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002268
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 1325
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 738
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 406
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 68
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 145
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002269
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 269
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 100
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 22
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002270
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 92
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 14
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002271
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002272
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002273
0.45
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002274
0.39
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002275
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002276
0.19
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002277
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002278
0.35
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002279
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002280
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Incidence = 65 %
Severe
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002281
0.45
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Incidence = 65 %
Severe
observed FHB index (%)
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27
deviations (%)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Weather inputsHistoric daily weatherScenario daily weather
Wheat crop model
Agronomic inputsEarly spring wheatNine sowing datesThree-day intervalsSoil properties
FHB incidence
FHB INC PASSO FUNDO 1957-1980
FHB INC PASSO FUNDO 1981-2003
FHB INC PASSO FUNDO SCENARIO
FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1931-1965
FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1966-1999
FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO
FHB INC PERGAMINO 1931-1966
FHB INC PERGAMINO SCENARIO
Final Remmarks
Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk
FHB - Blame it on Minimum Tillage
More frequent FHB epidemics
Raise food safety concerns
There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat
Interactions with other crops/pests
Recommended