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S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

BS6 Emission Norms & Vehicle Electrification

Presented by:

Dr. Saravanan Muthiah

Head – Advanced Technology

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Jan 25, 2019

StAR Annual Conference & Trade Show 2019, Kochi

S. Muthiah – StAR Annual Conference 2019Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 2

Presentation Flow: Contents

1) Introduction to Emission Regulations

2) Technology Options

3) Challenges in meeting BS6 Norms

4) Some Overall Trends

5) Vehicle Electrification

6) Opportunities

7) Summary

Emission Norms - Introduction

Air Pollution in India: PM2.5 (Particulate Matter 2.5 Microns)

Source: Berkeley Earth

Sources of Particulate Matter: NCR Region

Source: ARAI / TERI, Aug 2018

Automotive Vehicles contribute < 25% to PM pollution in NCR.

BS VI versus BS IV: Pollutant Limit Comparison

Source: Delphi Emission Booklet, 2017-18

Improvements Required: BS VI vs BS IV

Spark Ignition (Gasoline) Compression Ignition (Diesel

Source: ICCT, April 2016

Implications are

more stringent for

Diesel Vehicles.

Real Driving Emission (RDE) Implementation Map

Source: AVL, 2018

Europe

Brazil

PEMS for detection

of defeat devices

Monitoring: April 2016

CFs: Sep 2017

L7, L8 Procedure to be

published by 2020.

Monitoring: 2022 ?

CFs: 2024/2027?

Monitoring: April 2020

CFs: April 2023

ChinaMonitoring: July 2020

CFs: July 2023

South Korea Sep 2017 (Diesel Only)

2022 CF2 (Diesel Only)

Source: AVL, 2018

Ambient Temperature Altitude Vehicle Weight

TRAFFIC

Rural (45-65 kmph)Urban (<45 kmph) Highway (>65 kmph)

~ 1/3rd of Each part (Distance = 16km/part, Total time = 90 to 120 min)

Gradient ≤ 1200m / 100km, Abs. Altitude ≤ 1300 m

Low/High Temperature (8 to +45 deg. C)

Upto ~ Max. Allowed Vehicle Weight

RDE Emission Challenges: Real World Operation

Technology Options

Emission Strategies: Engine Out & Exhaust After-treatment

Engine Out Emission Control:

• Low pressure EGR

• High rail pressures

• Throttle control

• Injector rate shaping

• Multiple injections

After Treatment Pollution Control:

• Lean Nox Trap (LNT)

• Selective Catalyst Reduction

• Diesel Particle Filter (DPF)

• Gasoline Particle filter (GDPF)

Source: VW

After-treatment Technologies: NOx

Source: Ford, 2015 Source: VW

Challenges

Emission Regulation Timelines: EU vs India

2006 2007 2008 2009

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2015 2016 2017

EU6 RDE

2018 2019 2020

Only Metros

Across India

5 Years

3 Years

Lead time available for BS6 norms is much shorter. This puts a lot of stress on development timelines.

BS6 Compliance Cost: Diesel Vehicles

BS6 would make diesel vehicles much more expensive than similar Gasoline vehicles.

Source: Hindu Businessline, Jan 2018

Engine Capacity Cost Est. (Rs)

1.5L ~ 50K

2.0L ~ 70K – 125K

>2.5L ~ 100K – 150K

Regulatory Challenges: Indian Scenario

1996 2000 2005 2010 2014 20171992

BS1BS2 BS3

BS1BS2

Nationwide

Major cities

BS4 OBDII

2020 2022

BS4 BS6

CAFÉ Stage-2 norms in 2022 and Govt. of India’s intent to electrify most of the vehicle fleet by 2030

could be important milestones with regards to transmission trends.

STAGE - 1 STAGE - 2

ELECTRIFICATION

EMISSION

CAFE Nationwide for

M1 Vehicles

Source: Figure adapted from presentation by Mr. IV Rao, MSIL

FE Regulations

Industry Reference PointA – FE Corresponds to 129.8 g/km @ 1037 kgB – FE Corresponds to 113.0 g/km @ 1145 kg

Baseline = 3.5*

2* upper limit line

CAFÉ (Corporate Avg. FE) Star Labelling

Some Overall Trends

Market Trends in Passenger Vehicles (M1): India

Source: ICCT, Sept 2018

SUVs are gaining traction while diesels are losing their charm.

Diesel

Gasoline

CO2 versus Curb Weight : Passenger Vehicles (M1) - India

Source: ICCT, Sept 2018

• CO2 reduction has

resulted in renewed

focus on

lightweighting

• Opportunity for

alternative materials

Vehicle Electrification

Electrification: Vehicle Types

Source: MIT

Battery

Transmission

Motor/Generator

Battery Fuel

Transmission

Engine

Transmission

Engine

Battery ElectricHybridConventional ICE

Is Electrification Hype Real?

Source: IEA, 2018

Electrification looks

imminent. The pace

of electrification

could differ.

Battery Price: Li-Ion

Source: Blooomberg

USD / kW-Hr

2019$ 157.9 2025

$ 96.5

Li-ion Battery pack price has dropped by 70% in the last 5 years.

2014$ 540

Cost of Ownership Analysis : Passenger Vehicles

Source: Ernst & Young 2017

Would Enough Electricity be Available for Charging?

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, May 2017

Additional energy requirement from BEVs is

only 3.3% (82 TWh/year) of the total electric

energy demand in 2030.

EV Sales Projections: India

Source: Avalon Consulting / IMC

Impact of Electrification: Auto Components

Vehicle electrification would have a significant impact on Auto Component Industry.

Source: Ernst & Young 2017

Opportunities (Sample)

Some Opportunities: Conventional Vehicle

Fuel Tank Urea Tank

Engine Belt Cover

Oil Sump

Engine Cover Cam Cover

Battery Box

Harness ShieldsController Box

Wheel Arch LinerHVAC Duct

Thermal Ducts

Some Opportunities: Electric Vehicle

Summary

India is on the path to a 2-step emission norm upgrade (BS4 BS6) in a short span on 3 years.

Exhaust emission technology needs to be tailored for India specific conditions.

High cost especially for Diesel after-treatment solutions is a cause of concern. This has the potential to negatively impact diesel market share further.

CAFÉ Stage 2 norms and Electrification would bring in more focus on vehicle weight reduction.

With due diligence, this can be converted into an opportunity for further usage of Rotomolded parts in automotive applications.

References

1) Berkeley Earth Website: http://berkeleyearth.org/air-quality-real-time-map/ (accessed on Jan 16, 2019)

2) “Source Apportionment of PM2.5 & PM10 of Delhi NCR for Identification of Major Sources”, Report No. ARAI/16-17/DHI-SA-NCR/Exec_Summ, August 2018

3) “Worldwide Emission Standards – Passenger Cars and Light Duty Vehicles: 2017 |18 ”, Delphi

4) “INDIA BHARAT STAGE VI EMISSION STANDARDS”, ICCT, April 2016

5) “LNT or Urea SCR Technology:Which is the right technology for TIER 2 BIN 5 passenger vehicles?“, 12th DEER conference, 2006, Richard Dorenkamp Diesel Engine Development, Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg

6) “Emissions Overview, stage 6 addressing real driving”, Future Powertrain Conference 2015, Jon Caine, Ford Motor Company

7) https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/bs-vi-policy-diesel-cars-could-get-priced-off-the-roads/article9962588.ece(accessed on Jan 19, 2019)

8) “Auto industry preparedness for advancement of vehicular technologies & Fuel efficiency in India”, IV Rao, MSIL, 2014

9) “Compliance with India’s first fuel consumption standards for new passenger cars (FY 2017–2018)”, ICCT, Sept 2018

10) “Electric Vehicles 101”, MIT EVT, Dan Lauber, 2009

References (Contd. )

11) “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA

12) Bloomberg: “https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-22/electric-car-costs-set-to-fall”

13) “Standing up India’s EV ecosystem - who will drive the charge?”, Ernst & Young, 2017

14) “Techno-Economic Assessment of Deep Electrification of Passenger Vehicles in India”, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, May 2017

15) “ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA, Prospects and Challenges”, Avalon Consulting & IMC

16) Photos from various sources (Google, Amazon, Ebay and others)

Thank You

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