Brian Wernham - Agile Governance and Chaos Theory v05 - Cleaned

Brian Wernham

“Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance”

Presented at

APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014

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brian.wernham@gmail.com

@BrianUkulele http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50

Why are YOU here today?

http://bit.ly/About-Brian

@BrianUkulele

What is

‘Agile’? ‘Agile’ only for

web

development? ‘Agile’ only for

tiny stuff? ‘Agile’ = loss of

control?

What is

‘DSDM’?

‘Agile’ in

mission critical

projects?

2

What is

‘Scrum’?

Are we talking

Governance of a project

of Governance of

portfolios of change?

This talk:

1. What is ‘Agile’?

2. What is Agile Governance?

3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of

the unexpected?

- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity

4. Kick-off the development of a guide for

Agile Governance

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1. What is Agile?

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The “Big Design Up Front”

mind-set

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I had better ask for all

possible features…

At last – a chance to get what I

want!

5

The Big Design Up Front is born…

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The result of Big Design Up

Front…

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D’oh! http://bit.ly/About-Brian

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As difficult as trying to swim up a

waterfall…

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Scrum at the team level – two

popular methods…

Scrum

DSDM

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1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach

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Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum

15 Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)

An overview of two agile methods 2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach

2. What is Agile Governance?

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a) Time Driven

“I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday”

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Traditional Agile

Agile inverts the normal project management paradigm…

b) … and minimises Work in Progress

“There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse”

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Traditional Agile

Design

Build

Test

Deploy

P/type

?

P/type

P/type

P/type

Agile focuses on flow…

Can we define Agile Governance

principles at several levels:

Project Level?

Governance of one specific project?

Scrum? DSDM?

Programme Level?

Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:

Waterfall projects

& Agile projects?

Portfolio Level?

Governance across many projects?

19

Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about

being adaptable?

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Traditional

Project

Innovation

project Hybrid

Programme

Design

Build

Test

Deploy

P/type

P/type

P/type

P/type

Control-freak

Governance

Agile

Governance

Arms-length

Governance

Innovation

Project

Innovation

Project

Traditional

Project

Traditional

Project

3. Can we be ready for & take

advantage of the unexpected?

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A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)

How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)

Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)

Complex outcomes from simple systems

Self-organisation

Ants

People (so very different?)

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial

conditions)

For want of a nail the shoe was lost

For want of a shoe the horse was lost

For want of a horse the battle was lost…

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Heat convection – any difference in

initial conditions produces an

unpredicatble outcome after a

while:

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Increase the feedback and the

Lorenz equation becomes unstable

and ‘chaotic’:

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Complexity out of simplicity

e.g. the Lorenz Equation

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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial

conditions)

For want of a nail the shoe was lost

For want of a shoe the horse was lost

For want of a horse the battle was lost…

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“No two snowflakes are the same”

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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“No two snowflakes are the same”

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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How long is a piece of string?

(Fractals)

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Ruler length = x

Answer = y Ruler length x/2

Answer = y*2.5

The result runs away from you the

closer you try to measure it…

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The ‘fractal dimension’ measures

this disappearing event horizon

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How long will it take to add “just a

bit more detail” to a business case

or spec?

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Alternative stable states

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“Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems”

Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001

Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - People

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References

Daňa, Josef

“Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno

2014

Christopher, Martin

“The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial

Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44

Yang, C

“Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel University

Scheffer, Marten

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001

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4. Kick-off the development of a

guide for Agile Governance

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brian.wernham@gmail.com

Blog: brianwernham.wordpress.com

@BrianUkulele

http://bit.ly/About-Brian

`

Thanks for listening!

39

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