Big City Density and Sun Belt Sprawl

America’s Major Metropolitan Areas in the 2000s

Big City Density and Sun Belt Sprawl

AgendaRecapping A Decade in a Few Minutes

Metro Areas, the Census and American Community Survey

Population Changes in the 2000s

Differences onTransportationIncome Poverty

During the 2000s… America grew in several ways*

Suburbs 12% population growth

Central cities7% population growthSome see an economic revitalization in areas beyond “Downtown”

More than twice as many people live in suburbs vs. central cities

*Sources: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map , New York Times, Mapping America: Every City, Every Block and SustainableCitiesCollective (blog), “New Census numbers confirm the resurgence of cities”, December 15, 2010,

During the 2000s…Mid-decade economic boom driven by real estate…

which busts in 2007-2008Properties de-value, foreclosures rise

Greatest impact felt inSeveral of the fastest growing metro areas “Exurbs” – areas relatively far from central cities“Drive ‘til You Qualify”

Escalating Gas Prices

During the 2000s…Budgets are squeezed

Gas prices drive up transportation costs (among other things)Declining property values and ballooning mortgage interest

rates

Poverty rate grows faster in suburbs than in central cities*

Real wages fall more among suburban households*

*Source: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map

Major Cities Are Dense, Sun Belt Less So

High Growth Rate in Sun Belt

Metro Area Trends

Differences between higher density metros of America’s major cities and lower density, high growth metros in the Sun BeltTransportation

Primary commuting alternatives to driving alone Income levelsPoverty rates

County-level trends within these two sets

54 Metro Areas with 1 Million People or Greater*Metro Areas

Atlanta Cleveland-Akron Indianapolis Minneapolis-St. Paul Pittsburgh San Antonio

Austin Columbus Jacksonville Nashville Portland, OR San Diego

Baltimore (Part of Washington, DC - 1999

MSA)Dallas-Fort Worth Kansas City New Orleans Providence

San Francisco-Oakland (1999 MSA includes

San Jose)

Birmingham Denver-Boulder Las Vegas New York City Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill

San Jose (Part of San Francisco-Oakland -

1999 MSA)

Boston-Worcester Detroit-Ann Arbor-FlintLos Angeles (1999 MSA includes Riverside-San

Bernardino)

Norfolk-Virginia Beach Richmond Seattle-Tacoma

Buffalo Grand Rapids-Muskegon Louisville Oklahoma CityRiverside-San

Bernardino (Part of Los Angeles - 1999 MSA)

St. Louis

Charlotte Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem Memphis Orlando Rochester, NY Tampa-St. Petersburg

Chicago Hartford

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (West

Palm Beach separate MSA in 1999)

Philadelphia Sacramento Tucson

Cincinnati Houston Milwaukee Phoenix Salt Lake CityWashington, DC (1999

MSA includes Baltimore)

*2000 Census based on 1999 MSA definitions, or 2007-2009 American Community Survey based on 2003 CBSA definitions

Change in Metro Area DefinitionFederal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines

Metro Areas Revised in 2003*

Previously – Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Commuting relationship between central city and surrounding counties

New – Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) Examine commuting patterns between counties Urban core – ‘central city’ or several communities # of metropolitan areas grew from 280 to 362

Suburbs of large MSAs split offAreas are smaller, but likely more densePop density figures in 2012 when metro area data for 2010 Census is

released

*Source - Office of Management and Budget, Standards for Defining Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas; Notice, Federal Register, Vol. 65, No. 249, 12/27/00

1999 (MSA) and 2003 (CBSA) Metro Areas

2000 Census and 2007-2009 ACS 2000 Census

Entire population 1/6 of households –survey on housing and economic status

(discontinued for 2010 in favor of ACS)Metro Area statistics

CBSA – population count MSA – population density and characteristics

American Community Survey (ACS) Surveys 2 million households each year, official since 2005

Similar to longer-form 2000 census survey3-year average reduces margin of error

Info on geographic areas with pop. of 20K or greater (annual info for areas with pop. of 65K or greater)

Limitation - economic and social change during time periodCBSA - all metro area data

Overcame differences with 2000 Census by looking at county-level data

Population Changes In the 2000s

High Growth Rate in Sun Belt

Strong Growth – Suburbs of Sun Belt Metros

Strong Growth – Suburbs of Sun Belt Metros…

…Which Are Low Density In 2000, Indicating Sprawl

Differences between Higher and Lower Density Metros

Rail Offers Transportation Alternative in Major Cities

Less Public Transit Use in Sun Belt…

…So Carpooling is More Prevalent

Denser Major Cities Are Among Highest HH Incomes

Sun Belt Tends To Have Lower Per-Capita Income

Higher Poverty Rates Common In Sun Belt

Poverty Strong In Sun Belt Cities and Suburbs

Incomes Also Lower In Sun Belt Suburbs

Suburban Poverty Grows At A Faster Rate

Suburban Poverty Grows At A Faster Rate

In SummaryDenser metro areas of our major cities may have slower growth rates,

butHigher incomesLower poverty ratesExtensive rail networks help lessen auto-dependency

Sun Belt – High growth, lower densitySprawlingAuto-dependent Lower incomesGrowing suburban povertyAs transportation costs increase, could residents find themselves isolated

from jobs?Some regions taking action

Sun Belt Regions Adding Transit

Metro AreaLight Rail (lower

capacity and speed)*

Heavy Rail (heavy volume, high speeds, i.e.

Subway)*

Commuter Rail (between central city and outlying

suburbs)*

Austin1 line opened in

2010

Dallas-Fort Worth

4 lines, 2 undergoing expansion

1 line between Dallas and Fort-

Worth

Houston

1 line partially opened in 2004,

5-line system under

construction

Nashville1 line opened in

2006

Phoenix1 line opened in

2009

Sprawling development patterns limits reach of these systems

*Source: Federal Transit Administration, National Transit Database, Glossary; Websites of transportation agencies in above-mentioned cities and regions

Fed Policy Initiatives

HUD, DOT and EPA Partnership for Sustainable Communities1

Grants to 45 regions in December, 2010, including agencies in Austin, Greensboro and Houston

Development of joint sustainability, affordable housing and transit plans

1Partnership for Sustainable Communities Website, www.sustainablecommunities.gov

Thank You!