Bda Barossa 8th April

“Building with nature – Building design in a

changing environment”.

April 2011, Novotel Barossa Valley Resort, SADarren Bilsborough, Managing DirectorAdjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University

More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-

City Vulnerability

Identifying the issues Climate Change Global Population and Consumption

Leading to Resource Depletion and;- Peak Oil Peak Water Peak Food Pollution (air, water and soil)

Health and Well Being (future liabilities) Housing Affordability

1981 – 2005: global GDP more than doubled, but 60% of world’s ecosystems degraded/exploited unsustainably

Future Health Liability

Future Health Liability – Unfunded Health Budgets

Peak Oil

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Degree of SprawlTransportation as Percent of Expenditures

Sprawling Places Are More Expensive

How Much Time Have We Got?

Some future scenarios have petrol prices at up to $8/litre in Australia. Even modest scenarios foresee $2 a litre within a few years

Surveys by Budget Direct suggest 30% of motorists in Australian cities will stop using their car to commute if petrol reaches $1.75 a litre

Watch the arctic this September – the canary in the mine. We may only be three-four years from an ice free arctic in summer

Courtesy of Professor Peter Newman

Climate Code Red

Costs to government$86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost.

Cost to people$250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe developments drive more frequently and own more cars $ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments have higher risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people.

Cost to the planet4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200 homes – an estimated dollar value of approximately $19.32 million.

Productivity OpportunityA 6% improvement in productivity due to active travel Lifestyle.

PB-CUSP Alliance Research

Climate Change Adaptation

The Biggest Problem?

Adaptation Strategies in response to Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions

a) Risk minimisation which takes into account impacts associated with rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changing storm frequency, type and intensity.

b) Response to changes in land use/value and planning. c) Prepare communities to adapt to climate change

including: impacts of population increases (or changes) on infrastructure needs such as transportation, energy and waterbushfire intensity and frequency

Climate Change Adaptation

The Next Wave?So....Where to from here?

More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-

City Vulnerability

Identifying the issues Climate Change Mitigation Ecological Debt Housing and Household Affordability Climate Change Adaptation Health and Well Being (future liabilities)

“If you’re looking for a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON

Let’s look at some opportunities and future influencer’s on the building industry

More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-

City Vulnerability

Identifying the issues Climate Change Mitigation

Where do Australian emissions come from?

48%

14%

Stationary energy(power plants, etc)

Transport(vehicles)

6%

3%

2%

Garbage tips

Industrial processes

Gases escaping (during mining, from pipes)

17%

10%Land use change and forestry (clearing, etc)

Agriculture (mostly ex-animals)

AGO, figures for 1999

Where do Australian emissions come from?

Stationary energy(power plants, etc)

Transport(vehicles)

AGO, figures for 1999

62% of all emissions from Transport and Energy

Mitigation Strategies - Energy

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Fuel SwitchingBiosequestrationForests & Soils

CO2 Captureand Storage

Nuclear Fission

Stabilization Triangle

2005 2055

7 BtC/y

14 BtC/y

Renewable Electricity and Distributed Energy

Energy Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s

Mitigation Strategies - Energy

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

BiosequestrationForests & Soils

Stabilization Triangle

2005 2055

7 BtC/y

14 BtC/y

Renewable Electricity and Distributed Energy

Energy Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s

Energy Efficiency a Key Differentiator in the Short Term (for holders of property assets)?

As a result of required investment in green and renewable electricity generation and new carbon pricing mechanisms, it is certain that electricity prices will rise.

It is certain that under any carbon pricing mechanism super energy efficient green buildings will not only have lower operating costs (by a much greater margin than available to-day due to the future rise in energy costs) but may also be able to economically benefit from either avoiding carbon tax or by trading available credits.

A key initiative raised at the Prime Minister’s 2020 summit was “ carbon neutrality for all new buildings constructed beyond 2020”.

But the problem is even bigger…

Building Integrated PV

European leadership…Vauban Frieburg100% renewable

Roof mounted wind systems eg Windpods

Destiny of all life lies within technology

Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s

Alternate Fuels electric cars

electric motor-scooter

electric-assist bike

electric gopher

Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s

Availability?

What if we replaced all of the cars in Australia with EV’s?

We would have 3 times (300%) the current power generation capacity for the nation........

Availability?.......and Capacity?

Smart Grids: An Alternative Renewables Enabler

EVs, Distributed Energy and Smart Grids

Courtesy of EPRI

Effects on Housing design

EVs and Renewable Communities

EVs in Toyota’s Dream House, Japan MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates

More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-

City Vulnerability

Identifying the issues Climate Change Mitigation Ecological Debt Housing and Household Affordability

Not only more energy more resources too…

Consumption of Non-Renewable ResourcesWhat does this mean?

No More New Buildings?......Probably the “right” answer but this is just not practical

We must encourage the market to Refurbish and Reuse and if new buildings are required (and they will be required due to increasing population and growth demands in the short to medium term) we need them to be developed using a high proportion of renewable resources and to operate on zero waste principals including carbon neutrality.

....and more Affordable

More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-

City Vulnerability

Identifying the issues Climate Change Mitigation Ecological Debt Housing and Household Affordability Climate Change Adaptation Health and Well Being (future liabilities)

The Biophilic City ConceptAn Example and maybe a possible future trend?

• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems

The Biophilic City Concept The Biophilic City Concept

Biodiverse Cities

• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems

• Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles

The Biophilic City Concept The Biophilic City Concept

Mole Hill Vancouver

Edible Cities

Cuba

Vertical Farms

• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems

• Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles

• Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling

• Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future

• Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia and Reduced Pollution) and Associated Productivity Improvements

• Bio-sequestration of Legacy CO²

The Biophilic City Concept The Biophilic City Concept

Conclusions New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction

Sustainable Built Form and Land Use

• Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities

Joyce Station,Vancouver, 2004

Joyce Station,Vancouver, 2004

Hotel, Offices, Farmers Market, Cafes, Restaurants

Generous, people-oriented public environments

A range of housing densities that are people-oriented

Vauban Redevelopment, Freiburg, Germany

Sustainable Built Form and Land Use

• Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities

• Urban growth containment• Higher density residential development with 1st

class public transport access nearby (TOD’s)• Resource Efficient Housing (not just Energy)• Urban farming, local food supply• Biophilic cities

Conclusions New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction

The Biophilic City in the Pilbara? Pilbara CitiesPB Entry to Living Cities Competition

“Building with nature – Building design in a

changing environment”.

April 2011, Novotel Barossa Valley Resort, SADarren Bilsborough, Managing DirectorAdjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University