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B a n g l a d e s h
The Dazzl ing Delta Your Growth Strategy in Asia
Bangladesh’s growth story is one that few saw coming. In the face of
persistent challenges, the country’s stable economic growth has provided
the bedrock for a prosperous future.
With a forecasted growth rate that’s only second to India, Bangladesh looks
to stride towards middle income country status by 2021, banking on the
shoulders of both established core industries such as the RMG sector as
well as newer, rapidly growing sectors such as the ITES industry. The
growing middle class, with its big appetite for consumerism, also has a large
role to play in this future growth.
2
The Bangladesh Growth Story ………………………………………………………………………………... Page 3
Shifting Sands of the Apparel Industry ………………………………………………….……………….. Page 10
Powering Bangladesh’s Future ……………………………………………………………....……………… Page 14
Is Footwear Bangladesh’s Next Export Tiger? ………………………………………………………… Page 18
Pharmaceutical Industry Remains a Key Thrust Sector ………………………….………………. Page 22
IT and ITES Growth Key to Achieving Digital Bangladesh ………………………..……………… Page 26
Global Brands Already on the Bandwagon ……………………………………………………………… Page 30
Investing in Bangladesh …………………………………………………………………………………………… Page 31
3
Shifting Sands of
the Apparel Industry
Bangladesh’s economy has held strong with stable economic growth
throughout the last decade. In the next ten years, it is set to perform even
better. The country is being buoyed by brisk domestic demand and
supported by a booming RMG sector, flourishing remittance flow, record
high foreign currency reserve and international investors’ interest in FDIs.
Geographic proximity to emerging Asian powerhouses - India and China - will
further add impetus to the country’s drive towards middle income status.
173 Billion USD
Annual GDP (2014)
6.7% GDP Growth Rate
ADB Forecast, FY 15-16
31.2 Billion USD
Total Exports, FY 14-15
25.5 Billion USD
RMG Exports, FY 14-15
27 Billion USD FOREX Reserve, October 2015
12.8 Billion USD
Remittance Revenue, FY 14-15
1.53 Billion USD
FDI, FY 14-15
17% Debt to GDP Ratio
FY 14-15
4
While many of its competitors have faltered and lost their ways, Bangladesh’s economy has held strong in the last decade with GDP growing by 6.1% per annum as of 2014. This growth is impressive, taking into account frequent instances of natural calamities and political unrest in this period which have at times hindered economic activity.
Inflation has remained stable over 2015 at 6.21% (Source: Bangladesh Bank) as the country has enjoyed a relatively stable political situation this year. Reining of inflation is attributed to declining growth of non-food inflation e.g. Rent, which has contributed to lower inflationary pressure. Bangladesh Bank has also adopted a tight monetary policy which has further led to lower inflation.
This fiscal year, the Asian Development Bank is particularly bullish about Bangladesh’s economic
prospects. The ADB has upgraded its FY 2015-16 GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh from 6.5% to
6.7%. This is notable as for the rest of the Asia Pacific (except Vietnam and Fiji) the ADB has
downgraded its initial forecasts.
7.56
6.83
6.39
6.31
6.15
5.51
4.81
4.60
4.59
4.10
0.92
India Bangladesh Philippines China Vietnam Indonesia Pakistan Egypt Nigeria Nepal Brazil
AVERAGE GDP GROWTH (%)- 2015-2020
SOURCE: IMF
8.2%6.8% 6.7% 6.3% 6.20% 5.6% 5.0%
4.1% 3.5% 3.4%
Indi
a
Chin
a
Ban
glad
esh
Phili
ppin
es
Asi
a A
vera
ge
Mal
aysi
a
Indo
nes
ia
Thai
land
Sou
th K
orea
Sin
gapo
re
ADB FORECAST OF GDP GROWTH RATE (%),
FY 2015-16
3.3
11.2
7.7
3
9.6
5.86
13
9
3.2
9.8
6
Export Import Remittance Agriculture Industry Service
Sectors
SECTORAL GROWTH RATE IN FY 2014-2015 VS
ADB's FORECASTS FOR FY 2015-2016
FY 2015 FY 2016
SOURCE: ADB
SOURCE: ADB
5
Bangladesh has performed well compared to other comparable countries and sovereign ratings by both
Moody’s and S&P are testament to the economy’s resilience. The ratings are driven by a healthy
economic outlook, progress on policy reform and limited vulnerability to fiscal and external funding
stress. Local currency country risk ceiling is affirmed at Baa3, Long term foreign currency bond B2 and
Bank Deposit ceiling at B1.
Exports have been growing based on the blossoming RMG sector which has clocked USD 25.49 billion
in FY 14-15. Remittance revenues has grown to the tune of USD 12.8 Billion in 2015, albeit at a slower
pace. However, import growth has declined at a relatively higher rate which contributed to positive
current account balance.
Bangladesh is experiencing record high forex reserve position, currently standing at USD 27 billion as
of October 2015. The current reserve can comfortably cover 7 months of country’s import. This
continued growth in Forex reserve is attributable to steadily improving RMG export, the stable exchange
rate and satisfactory growth in remittance earnings.
Manpower export is also set to improve as the new opportunities are opening up in markets such as
Japan and Thailand. Malaysia also continues to have high demand for Bangladeshi workers.
Government has been investing heavily in infrastructure developments, especially in the field of power
generation. Since 2009, power generation capacity has more than doubled, increasing from 4,942 MW
to 11,877 MW in 2015, with 68% of the population having access to electricity. Over the next five years,
the government plans to increase power generation by 12,853 MW. The private sector will provide 40%
of this increased electricity.
The private sector is mainly involved in the power industry through rental power plants. Entrepreneurs
have established quick rental power generation plants which have been regularly supplying to the
national grid, contributing to lower electricity shortage.
Government has been working to improve efficiency of the Chittagong Port which has the potential of
doubling its capacity. In fact, in May 2015, the port handled 185, 684 TEU (twenty foot equivalent
units) of import and export, the highest in the port’s 38-year history.
There also are long term plans of establishing a deep sea port in Sonadia and both Chinese and Indian
investors have expressed interest in developing the sea port. Establishment of seaport can significantly
reduce export lead times and earn steady flow of revenue for the government.
6
A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group on Bangladesh’s growing middle class consumer
segments highlights the exciting opportunities for B2C firms in Bangladesh that will emerge in the next
decade. According to their research, over 60% of consumers expect their income levels to rise in the
next 12 months. They represent the middle and affluent consumer (MAC) class: although currently
they only account for 7% of the population, by 2025 that will increase to 19%. This translates to a
market base of 34 million spread out over 61 cities in Bangladesh.
Although MAC consumers usually work within a budget, they want value for money and are less likely
to be swayed by pricing decisions compared to their counterparts in other South Asian markets.
Overall, Bangladeshi consumers spend $130 billion annually, with a 6% annual growth in consumer
spending. This huge consumer base is something that global consumer brands can hardly ignore.
374520
818
1314
2002 2007 2012 2014
GDP/Capita (USD)
SOURCE: BCG
SOURCE: World Bank
7
Bangladesh is at the crux of “Chindia”. The close geographic proximity to these fast-growing economic
powerhouses not only leads to strong trade relations but also gives access to potent market
opportunities.
Furthermore, the shift in manufacturing in China as it moves out from low cost production to more value
addition oriented production has created a gap that many emerging economies are scrambling to fill.
Bangladesh is one of the better equipped countries with the capacity, access and cost-base to assume
a leading role in this shift.
With competitive labor wage rates compared to other countries, Bangladesh is also set to continue its
success story in the RMG sector. With product diversification and new markets in Asia the volume may
well exceed USD 40 billion by 2020.
68 113
66 120
118 126
193 204
262
Bangladesh
India
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Pakistan
Cambodia
Indonesia
China Inland
China Coast
MIN. WAGE RATE FOR RMG SECTOR (IN USD/MONTH)
SOURCE: ILO
8
Additionally, Bangladesh has one of the lowest Public Debt to GDP ratios compared to other frontier markets – even India and Vietnam.
Although RMG provides the lion’s share of Bangladesh’s export volume, the country is rapidly
diversifying into other sectors for exports as well. Non-RMG exports currently stand at 5.8 Billion USD
and are exported to grow to 11 billion by 2025. This growth is driven by emerging sectors such as Light
Engineering, Pharmaceuticals, Leather and IT.
Italy- 132%
USA- 103%
UK- 89%
India- 66%
Vietnam- 51%
Bangladesh- 17%
PUBLIC DEBT TO GDP RATIO (2014)
509.72
249.16
483.81
126.06
132.54
90.11
72.67
42.92
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Shrimp
Leather Goods
Leather Shoes
Bicycles
ITES
Consumer Electronics
Pharma
Ceramics
Export - Emerging Sectors in USD mn (FY 2014-15)
Bangladesh-
1.17%
Frontier
Market-
2.90%
SOURCE: CIA FACTBOOK
FDI TO GDP RATIO
0.28
0.8 0.74 0.79 0.770.96 0.91 0.78
1.19
1.731.53
FY 2003-
04
FY 2004-
05
FY 2005-
06
FY 2006-
07
FY 2007-
08
FY 2008-
09
FY 2009-
10
FY 2010-
11
FY 2011-
12
FY 2012-
13
FY 2013-
14
FDI (USD BN)
SOURCE: WORLD BANK
SOURCE: EPB
SOURCE: WORLD BANK
9
Bangladesh has been experiencing increasing FDI over the last decade. FY 2014 inward FDI was USD 1.53 billion (highest in the manufacturing sector – USD 722.8 million). However, there is still room for much improvement, as the FDI to GDP ratio in Bangladesh (1.2%) is still well below the frontier market average (2.9%).
Bangladesh capital markets have developed steadily over time, although they still lack depth and
breadth due to the absence of financial instruments such as derivatives.
However, to their credit, Bangladesh capital markets have very low and even negative correlation with
developed, emerging and other frontier equity markets. Therefore, an exposure to Bangladesh
significantly improves risk adjusted returns.
The market has returned 203% since Jan 2007 (16.33% p.a.). For long term investors looking to participate in the Bangladesh growth story – now is a good time to start investing.
It is worth noting that 4 of the 5 largest stocks in December 2015 belong to the infrastructure or
infrastructure sectors.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
3/1/
2007
3/4/
2007
28-0
6-20
07
26-0
9-20
07
6/1/
2008
3/4/
2008
2/7/
2008
5/10
/200
8
12/1
/200
9
8/4/
2009
5/7/
2009
6/10
/200
9
5/1/
2010
1/4/
2010
28-0
6-20
10
29-0
9-20
10
29-1
2-20
10
31-0
3-20
11
28-0
6-20
11
2/10
/201
1
4/1/
2012
3/4/
2012
28-0
6-20
12
4/10
/201
2
8/1/
2013
8/4/
2013
8/7/
2013
8/10
/201
3
13-0
1-20
14
10/4
/201
4
9/7/
2014
16-1
0-20
14
15-0
1-20
15
13-0
4-20
15
13-0
7-20
15
14-1
0-20
15
DSEX
Inde
x
Mar
ket C
ap (i
n M
illio
n BD
T)
DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE PERFORMANCE (JAN'07 TO DEC'15)
Total Market Cap in Taka (mn) DSEX Index
2.45 2.41 2.23 2.131.7
Khulna Power Company
Limited
Beximco Pharma BSRM Steel Lafarge Surma Cement KDS Accessories Limited
STOCK VALUE IN USD (BN)
SOURCE: DSE
SOURCE: DSE
10
Shifting Sands of
the Apparel Industry
Bangladesh currently sits as the second largest player in the apparel industry
behind China. As China moves up towards more value-added products, it
leaves behind more opportunities for countries like Bangladesh to
strengthen their foothold in low-value apparel markets. However, the
competition is also hot on its trail, with emerging players such as Vietnam
and Ethiopia vying to make headway as well. Although Bangladesh is
undoubtedly doing well in the apparel industry, it can ill afford to rest on its
laurels.
25.4
Billion USD
RMG Export (FY 14-15)
81%
Of Total Export
RMG Export (FY 14-15)
14%
Annual Growth
FY 13-14
5.1%
Global Market Share
11
When Bangladesh’s export-oriented readymade garments (RMG) sector began its modest journey in the
late 1970s, few foresaw its meteoric rise and the substantial role it would play in driving Bangladesh’s
economic fortunes. Bangladesh’s substantial cost advantage in labor, augmented by early advantages
gained by preferential trade agreements such as the MFA have contributed to the industry’s rise as a
global player from the 90s onwards.
At the moment, Bangladesh occupies a comfortable position in the global apparel export scenario,
contributing 5.1% of the export volume. Although the end of the MFA in 2005 sparked doom and
gloom predictions from many analysts, Bangladesh has continued to grow at a robust pace. An
important factor for this sustained growth is China’s shift towards higher value production, leaving much
room to grow for Bangladesh’s apparel industry—exports grew from 6.9 billion USD in 2005 to 25.5
billion USD in 2015.
Despite international backlash following a series of industrial accidents in 2012 and 2013, Bangladesh
still remains the top sourcing destination among CPOs for the next five years. Although countries such
as Vietnam are hot on its heels, the true long-threat might arise in the form of new players such as
China,
34.0%
India,
5.4%
Bangladesh,
5.1%
Vietnam,
4.7%
Indonesia,
4.5%Turkey,
3.5%
SOURCE: UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION
GLOBAL APPAREL EXPORTERS
0
10
20
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RMG EXPORT TREND 2001-2014 (IN
USD BN)
Knitwear Woven
SOURCE: MCKINSEY
48%
33% 30% 30% 30%23%
13% 10%5% 5% 5%
Bang
lade
sh
Viet
nam
Indi
a
Mya
nmar
Turk
ey
Chin
a
Ethi
opia
Indo
nesia
Egyp
t
Sri L
anka
Tuni
sia
TOP SOURCING DESTINATIONS, 2015-2020
SOURCE: EPB
3768
120
Ethi
opia
Bang
lade
sh
Viet
nam
AVERAGE WAGES IN RMG
SECTOR
SOURCE: WAGEINDICATOR
12
Ethiopia. Ethiopia currently enjoys a vast cost advantage over Bangladesh, with rage rates currently
almost half of those in Bangladesh.
Furthermore, other factors such as preferential trade agreements (GSP to USA and EU) surplus
electricity, cheap land price, preferential investment terms and proximity to EU and USA also play an
important role in accelerating Ethiopia’s apparel export growth.
Although Bangladesh’s apparel industry is currently buoyed by robust domestic growth, it faces some
external challenges in regards to some of its export destinations. The EU, which is currently the largest
market for Bangladeshi apparels (61%), has been experiencing sharp depreciation due to the Eurozone
crisis caused by Greece’s debt default. A depreciating Euro means that Bangladeshi apparel exports are
becoming more expensive in the Eurozone.
Bangladesh is also facing running into problems with the US market, which is currently the single largest
importer of Bangladeshi apparels. In 2013, USA cancelled GSP for Bangladesh’s exports citing a variety
of reasons. It should be noted that, although apparel did not originally fall under GSP, BGMEA was
lobbying hard to get tariff free access for apparel exports. Thus GSP cancellation is a significant
roadblock on the way to getting such benefits for the apparel industry.
Move towards higher value products: As it stands, Bangladesh runs the risk of entering a
race to the bottom, with both current competitors and new entrants sporting highly
competitive wage rates which are close to or even lower than Bangladesh’s average wages in
the apparel industries. With future pressure from unions being likely to pressure further
increases in wages, staying exclusively in low value product markets will be difficult to
maintain. Thus, moving into higher value products should be an important long-term focus
for the key players in the apparel industry.
Stick with drive for renewed compliance: Moving into higher value products will require
significant amount of investment in factory development and R&D. Two ways to secure this is
through government patronage, which can be garnered by showing a consistent commitment
to compliance, which is an important issue in the post-Rana plaza landscape. Secondly,
compliance is also a good green signal for international buyers who will be more likely to give
orders for higher value products in the future.
USA
21%
Canada
4%
EU
61%
Emerging
Markets
14%
Bangladesh's RMG export FY 2015
SOURCE: EPB
SOURCE: EXCHANGERATES.ORG
13
At the moment, satisfactory progress has been made in the 528 factories visited by the
Alliance for Bangladesh Workers Safety to deliver the highest international standards as of
September 2015. However, there is still a lot of room to grow as 1/5th of the factories visited
have completed less than 20% of the planned upgrades.
Depreciatory Monetary Policy: Depressing the Bangladeshi taka will make Bangladeshi
exports cheaper to buy in our export destinations. This can provide a good mitigating
influence in the face of rising costs due to higher wages.
Improve Backward Linkages: Most of the raw material for apparel sector has to be imported
from abroad. Although some of the cotton used is sourced locally, for instance, the vast
majority of it is sourced abroad, mostly from China. In this regards, manufacturers can
consider forward contracting to protect against potential shocks in the global cotton market.
Alternatively, manufacturers can explore the option of acquiring lands in Africa to establish
cotton plantations in the long run.
Developing Mid-Tier Management: Currently, there is a significant deficit of talented mid-tier
managers in the apparel industry. Due to branding issues and low pay compared to other
industries such as banks and FMCG, most fresh graduates are reluctant to enter the apparel
sector. RMG leaders and the government must work hand in hand to increase the
attractiveness of the apparel industry as a place of employment.
Some ways this can be achieved is through closer relations with reputed public and private
universities, for example through seminars, programs and courses that introduce the
prospects and workings of the RMG sector to university students.
Strengthening Diplomatic Ties: The government must pursue diplomatic overtures with top
importers such as the US and EU. With the USA in particular, reinstating GSP privileges should
be a priority since that will pave the way for similar tariff free access for apparel exports.
14
Powering Bangladesh’s
Future
If RMG is at the heart of the Bangladesh success story, then the power
infrastructure is its lifeblood. Greater power generation as well as access to
electricity is key to fueling the growth of not only key industries but also the
growing appetites of urban middle-class households. At the moment,
continued heavy investment in energy infrastructure has made improvements
but by 2030 Bangladesh’s power demand may well reach 34,000 MW. The
challenge of filling this gap represents a multibillion dollar opportunity for
investment.
12,071
MW Current Installed Capacity
6,431 MW
Current Average Demand
34,000 MW
Projected Energy Demand (2030)
62% Of the Population
Have Access to Electricity
63% Of Electricity Fuel
Is Supplied by Natural Gas
42%
Of Electricity Is supplied by the Private Sector
15
The government has made great strides in electricity generation over the last decade. Over the period
2006-2015, peak demand of electricity in the national grid grew at a CAGR of 8.11% per year, from
2787 MW in 2006 to 6078 MW in 2015. On the supply end, installed capacity grew at a faster pace of
9.11% CAGR per year, from 4650 MW to 11282 MW.
Furthermore, load-shedding has become far less frequent during this period as peak electricity
generation has usually kept pace with peak demand. Consistent electricity generation is a key issue for
thrust sectors such as RMG, and also a key factor in facilitating greater internet activity among the
population.
However, there is still much work to be done for the future, as electricity demand may well reach
34,000 MW by 2030. This means that not only will the government need to continue to heavily invest
in the power sector, but must also expand the scope of operations as well as change its nature over
time.
Moreover, 62% of the population is currently covered by the electricity grid with the rest of the
population set to come online in the near future. This represents a still untapped market of 61 million
people who will be connected to the national grid in the coming years as Bangladesh continues its
growth trajectory out of the LDC category.
10,283
17,304
25,199
33,708
6,170
10,382
15,749
21,910
2015 2020 2025 2030
POWER GENERATION AND DEMAND (MW),
2015-2030
Prj Demand Prj Elec GenSOURCE: BPDB
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
POWER GENERATION AND DEMAND (MW),
2006-2015
Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Hour Generation Peak Demand (MW)
SOURCE: BPDB
16
The power industry is unique in the fact that overhauling it can impact all components across the vertical
production chain. This presents ample opportunity for investment in areas ranging from electricity
generation to distribution channels in the fuel sourcing function.
At the moment, the vast majority of the electricity generated (62.59%) comes from natural gas, which
is currently the cheapest fuel source. However, this status quo cannot remain much longer as natural
gas reserves are depleting fast and won’t be able to support electricity demand after 2019.
For the next five-year plan of 2016-2020, the Planning Commission has outlined the need to move away
from natural gas. The focus will be shifted towards imported coal and LNG, which will be used to
generate an additional 6000 MW of electricity.
A significant portion of this additional power will be provided by the private sector. Already, the private
sector provides 42% of the total installed capacity.
The search for long-term alternatives to natural gas is already underway. Although coal currently is
the target of the largest efforts in this context, other options such as hydroelectricity and solar power
are also being explored. Overall, there is the opportunity to potentially invest 70.5 Billion USD to
gear up for Bangladesh’s power needs of 2030.
Coal: Currently providing only 3% of the fuel mix, coal is scheduled to provide 50% of the fuel
for electricity generation by 2030. This move can be justified by two reasons: firstly, there are
huge reserves of coal in Northern Bangladesh, estimated to be around 3 Billion Tonnes.
Secondly, there is also the option of importing coal in the short term, as laying the
groundwork for building substantial coal mining facilities will take some time.
Currently, the Coal Power Generation Company is courting foreign firms for building the
Matarbari Coal Power Plant, which is set to be the largest coal-fired power plant in
Bangladesh’s history.
Hydroelectricity: With hydroelectricity, there is the option of exploring regional power grid
connectivity in earnest. This has already seen some modest beginnings with the start of
electricity import from India in October 2013 on a pilot basis of 173 MW, with the potential
21.11%
8.05%
2.10%
4.21%
1.94%
62.59%
CURRENT FUEL MIX
Furnace Oil Diesel Coal Power Import Hydro Natural Gas
25.9
17.9512.2
8.1 6.22.57
Diesel Furnace
Oil
LNG Imported
Coal
Imported
Power
Domestic
Gas
COST OF GENERATION (TK/UNIT)
SOURCE: BPDB
SOURCE: Planning Commission
17
to generate 1000 MW of electricity from this arrangement. However, with hydroelectricity,
the scope of regional connectivity is much greater. In fact, the SAARC region, especially
countries like Nepal and Bhutan, has the potential to generate 300,000 MW worth of
hydroelectric power, which would significantly benefit member states like Bangladesh who
have shortages.
Solar Power: Bangladesh has managed to implement one of the most successful long-term
Solar Home System (SHS) Projects so far. Since the program’s inception in 2003, IDCOL has
worked with 47 partner organizations to install 3.8 million SHSs, providing electricity to 20
million rural people. IDCOL currently targets to build 6 million more units by 2017. The
project has also garnered financial support from World Bank, who offered the government
78.4 million USD in 2014 to finance 480,000 SHSs.
The private sector is also deeply involved with other solar power projects. Rahimafrooz, the
nation’s largest solar power provider, has expressed interest in building rooftop solar
installations at various areas of Dhaka and Chittagong. In fact, it has already built a 50kw
grid-tied solar panel on the rooftop of the Bangladesh Secretariat building at Segunbagicha,
Dhaka. Dhaka Power Distribution Company Limited (DPDC) is buying electricity from the
plant.
In fact, the government has committed to eventually installing solar panels on the rooftops
of all government buildings.
The solar power sector is also experiencing foreign investor activity. Skypower Global, one of
the world’s largest solar power producing companies, is set to invest 4.3 billion USD in
Bangladesh’s solar power industry.
LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) can augment the country’s energy needs by allowing for
import of liquefied natural gas and subsequent gasification on landing and distribution. The
groundwork has been laid to construct Bangladesh’s first floating LNG terminal at
Moheshkhali which is going to have a capacity to handle 5 million MT/year of LNG.
Importing LNG is a logical next step if we want to continue use natural gas as a majority fuel
source in the face of depleting reserves.
Furthermore, the state-owned North-West Power Generation Co Ltd (NWPGCL) is also
planning to build a 750MW-850MW re-gasified LNG-based combined cycle power plant in
Khulna. This plant will use LNG imported through India.
Wind Power: Although the potential benefits to be reaped from this sector are extensive, no
significant project has been yet started in wind energy. Bangladesh’s 710 km coast line
provide ample ground for future projects.
18
Is Footwear Bangladesh’s Next Export Tiger?
Although RMG provides 80% of Bangladesh’s total exports, several sectors
have popped up over the last decade which represent potential for greater
export diversification. Footwear is one such sector. Footwear exports have
grown almost 10 times over the last decade, from 68 million USD in 2004 to
673 million USD in 2015. With eyes set on lucrative markets such as the EU,
USA and India, Bangladesh’s footwear industry is in a prime position to play
a larger role in Bangladesh’s export fortunes over the next decade. This is
due, in part, to robust backward linkages, especially leather sourcing.
673
Million USD
Footwear Export (FY 14-15)
2.2%
Of Total Export
Footwear Export (FY 14-15)
25.76%
CAGR
(2004-2015)
211
Billion USD
Projected Global Market
Size (2018)
19
Bangladesh’s footwear industry has experienced a
meteoric rise since the last decade. With a CAGR of 25.76% per year, total footwear exports grew from
68 million USD in 2004 to 673 million USD in 2015. This growth parallels the current growth of the
global footwear market, which is currently forecasted to grow to 211 billion USD by 2018. At the
moment, Bangladesh only holds 0.5% of this market.
The growth of the local footwear industry is boosted to a large extent by the growth of the overall leather industry. Recently, total export has exceeded USD 1 billion mark in 2014 for the leather sector which has been due to rising global demand and renewed interest amongst local entrepreneurs for manufacturing footwear. Some international investors have forayed in the sector setting up factories in local Export Processing Zones (EPZs). The strong leather industry in Bangladesh gives unique advantages to the footwear industry, as there is the opportunity of total vertical integration in the value chain, from raw leather to the final product. For instance, Bangladesh produces superior quality leather from local livestock, which is subsequently processed by tanneries concentrated around the capital city. The annual production of leather hovers around 250 Million square feet each year with supply peaking during the religious festivals of Eid, especially Eid-ul-Adha. The tanneries in Bangladesh have often come under criticism for being environmentally unfriendly. This has prompted the government to build a 200-acre Leather Industrial Park in Savar at a cost of USD 60 Million. The park will include state of art Effluent Treatment Plants (ETPs) to treat the waste generated while processing the leather in the tanneries.
185 189 192 196 200 203 207 211
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SOURCE:TRANSPARENCY MARKET RESEARCH ON FOOTWEAR
GLOBAL FOOTWEAR DEMAND (USD BN),
2011-2018
PROJECTED
@ 1.9%
CAGR68 88 95 123 159 183 204298 336
419
550
673
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FOOTWEAR EXPORTS (USD MN),
2004-2015
SOURCE: EPB
20
As the majority of leather is exported to the EU (54%), the recent decline in demand in EU market of
leather hides has adversely affected the Bangladesh leather market.
This decline in demand has been reflected in a fall in global hide prices, prompting local buyers being
less likely to buy the raw hides as well. As a result, 40% of the hides bought by tannery warehouses
since last Eid-ul-Adha is still unsold.
If this global demand deficit persists, then there is an opportunity for the rawhide sellers to shift their
focus to local footwear manufacturers, provided that the expanding footwear industry also has
matching demand for their excess hide supply.
The crackdown on compliance in the leather industry, especially the insistence on shifting tanneries
from Hazaribagh to Savar, has prompted many footwear manufacturers to try their hand in the non-
leather footwear sub-sector, which, at the moment, is free from such regulation.
Over the years, Bangladesh has emerged as a leading exporter of quality, low price non-leather
footwear to key global retailers such as H&M, Decathlon, Kappa, Sketchers, Fila, and Puma. Exports
from this sector stood at 171.57 million USD in FY 13-14.
This shift is also driven by the comparatively low input costs of non-leather footwear. While a leather
shoe costs $9 to make, a pair of non-leather shoes can cost as low as $3.2.
106.76 106.06 104.5 100.33 96 9482.5
71 74.8 74.75 70.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
PRICES OF HIDES IN GLOBAL MARKET, 2015
(IN DOLLARS PER POUND)
Countries
including Japan,
USA, Australia,
India
28%
EU
54%
Emerging
Markets such as
Vietnam,
Indonesia,
Turkey, Costa
Rica
18%
Regionwise Market for Bangladesh Leather Exports
SOURCE: EPB
SOURCE: INDEXMUNDI
21
The growing middle class segments in key Asian markets such as China and India means that products such as footwear are going to be increasingly seen as more brand and status-driven instead of being necessities. This will create the opportunity to market higher value products to these regions. In fact, there is good potential for growth in Bangladesh’s domestic market as well. Rising per capita income, along with the growing MAC segment, shows encouraging signs for both entry level and higher value products in the future.
A good strategy for footwear manufacturers would be shift their focus to the top export destinations in
the long run. At the moment, the EU is the largest export destination of Bangladesh’s footwear
industry. However, even in 2013 only 4 EU countries (Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy) feature
in the top 10 global footwear markets (source: Euromonitor).
To gain a greater share of the pie, Bangladeshi footwear manufacturers should target both established
top markets such as USA, China and Japan and also emerging markets such as Mexico, which will be
thriving by 2018.
Top 5 Global
Markets (China,
Russia, Brazil,
USA, Japan),
206,950,308.65,
31%
EU,
361,586,029.27,
54%
Emerging Markets
such as India, Peru,
Panama, UAE
, 104,732,256.98,
15%
REGIONWISE MARKET FOR BANGLADESH
FOOTWEAR EXPORTS (USD MN), FY 14-15TOP 10 FOOTWEAR MARKETS, 2013 AND 2018
Ranking 2013 2018
1 USA USA
2 China China
3 Russia Russia
4 Brazil Brazil
5 Japan Mexico
6 Mexico Japan
7 Germany United Kingdom
8 France Germany
9 United Kingdom Italy
10 Italy France
SOURCE: EPB
SOURCE: EUROMONITOR
22
Pharmaceutical Industry Remains a Key Thrust Sector
The pharmaceutical sector in Bangladesh is one of the thrust sectors and
plays a vital role for the country’s economy. The sector utilizes highly
skilled manpower along with advanced machinery for manufacturing high
quality generic medicines and vaccines for local and international markets
at competitive prices. With a current market size of $1.2 billion, the
market is poised to cross $2 billion by 2018. In fact, provided the political
situation remains as stable as it has been for the last year, the growth may
be even higher than projected.
1.2
Billion USD Local Market Size (2015)
2 Billion USD Estimated Local
Market Size (2018)
300 Companies
Operating in the Market
72.64 Million USD
Total Pharma Exports (FY 14-15)
23
According to IMS projections, the global pharmaceutical market will grow to USD 1.135 trillion from
USD 953 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3-6% during 2013-2017.
Led by China, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) accounts for almost 70% of all
pharmaceutical market sales. Parallel to the global picture, the emerging countries show a positive
growth trend, where Bangladesh is one of the Tier 3 pharmerging countries that is forecasted to
contribute to this industry growth by 6–9% between 2013–2017.
In the global market, the lion’s share of export is contributed by patented drugs. In the domestic
market, however, the inverse is true: 85% of the drugs sold are generics and 15% are patented drugs.
The local market comprises of 83 active pharmaceutical companies, out of which top 20 companies
control 85% of the market share. The local market size currently rests at USD 1.53 billion, with local
manufacturers meeting 97% of the demand.
Incepta Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Renata Ltd, Drug International Ltd, Eskayef Bangladesh Ltd, Sanofi, Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd and Opsonin Pharma are the top market players. Square Pharmaceuticals stands out as the market leader with 19.3 percent market share with its close rivals being Incepta, Beximco and Opsonin. Beximco has recently entered EU market and is enlisted in London Stock Exchange as well. These companies are also well known for exporting high end branded drugs such as anti-cancer drugs and cardiac medicines. High-tech insulin manufacturing plants have started operation to meet the country's growing demand.
As a member of WTO and being enlisted as one of the LDCs, Bangladesh currently enjoys the benefits of intellectual property rights that allows producing generic drugs and exports until 2032 without compulsory licenses or paying the patent holders and thus providing an advantage to the local manufacturers and exporters. This has allowed pharma companies to exports to 107 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America with export standing at USD 72 million in 2015. However, there is still much ground to be covered, in terms of both share of Bangladesh’s total export (0.23%) and share of the global pharmaceutical export market (0.11%).
1,776 2,043 2,349 2,701 3,104 3,573 4,108 4,725
5,433
FY
2014
FY
2015
FY
2016
FY
2017
FY
2018
FY
2019
FY
2020
FY
2021
FY
2022
B A N G L A D E S H G R O W T H F O R E C A S T
( U S D M N )
SQUAR
E
INCEPTA
PHARMA
9%BEXIMCO
9%
OPSONIN
PHARMA
ESKAYEF
5%
RENATA
5%
ACME
4%
A.C.I.
ARISTOPHARMA
4%
DRUG
INTERNATIONAL
4%
Others
31%
TOP 10 FIRMS' MARKET SHARE
SOURCE: BAPI
SOURCE: PHARMA WORLD
24
Healthy growth trajectory is boosting the pharmaceutical manufacturers towards R&D for newer generics with global standards in place. The DGDRA Bangladesh is playing the key role in inspecting the WHO, GMP and SOP of the pharmaceutical manufactures and enrolling the certifications for subsequent two years’ validity from the date of inspection. Furthermore, to meet the staggering local and international demand, the government has extensively imposed lower or zero import duty and VAT for certain raw materials/ items and certain capital machineries, and also allowed tax holidays of four to six years to investors in this sector.
The Bangladeshi pharmaceutical market is growing at a fast pace and has a promising future. According to Business Monitor International's latest report, Bangladesh has moved one step upward to occupy the 14th position amongst 17 regional markets. This sector offers an enormous investment opportunity and has the potential to export alongside the RMG sector in terms of value, catering to increasing consumption worldwide.
Under WTO’s Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), 48 LDCs,
including Bangladesh, were granted exemption from drug patent fees in producing generic drugs until
2016. Recently, this was extended to 2032.
Although the advantage that can be gained from TRIPS has been much lauded in Bangladesh, in reality
not much benefit has been gained due to lack of infrastructure required for producing quality generic
drugs cost effectively.
To rectify this, the industry needs to focus on strengthening backward linkages. The government also
needs to create an export-friendly environment with activity from both public and private sector
stakeholders.
1.2% 1.6%
19.2%
78.1%
ITEMWISE EXPORT IN FY 2014-15
Glands & Extracts, Secretions for
Organotherapeutic Uses
Human & Animal Blood; antisera,
vaccines, micro-organism
Medicament mixtures not In
dosages
Medicament mixtures put In
dosages
41.68 45.14 49.1260.94
70.45 72.64
FY 2009-
10
FY 2010-
11
FY 2011-
12
FY 2012-
13
FY 2013-
14
FY 2014-
15
Pharmaceuticals Products Export (USD Mn)
SOURCE: EPB
SOURCE: EPB
25
Localize Pharmaceutical Value Chain to Reduce Costs: One of the highest cost components in
medicine production is APIs, which can contribute as much as 40% of the total cost. At the
moment, 80% of these APIs are imported from India and China.
Although 15 Bangladesh companies (such as Beximco, Square and Opsonin) are
manufacturing active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), this is a very small percentage of the
85 active firms in the market.
Backward integration in APIs is a key issue for the pharma industry’s growth. Currently India,
the top generic drug player, has 3500 Drug Master File (DMFs) approval for APIs whereas we
have none.
To mitigate this, the government has taken the significant step of constructing an API
Industries Park at Munshiganj, 40 km from the capital. About 40 firms are planned to be
established at the plant, which will include a central effluent treatment plant incinerator.
However, the project, originally scheduled to be completed by 2012, has been repeatedly
delayed, with costs rising by 55%. As a result, progress in backward integration regarding APIs
has stalled.
Bioequivalence testing, which determines if the generic version is identical to original brand,
is another crucial part of the value chain. This is mandatory for product registration in any
developed market and is very expensive when conducted abroad in USA or Europe.
A central bioequivalence and drug testing laboratory would help the industry by not only
reducing this cost, but also allowing for routine quality checks on locally produced drugs,
further strengthening the case for entry into developed markets.
Greater collaboration between industry and academia: A potent and mature medical
academic community is instrumental to fostering a healthy R & D culture in the industry. The
government can take cues from its Indian counterpart, which has taken steps to establish
specialized pharmaceutical institutes such as the National Institute of Pharmaceutical
Education and Research (NIPER).
More long-term commitment to creating export-friendly environment: In addition to the
existing tax holidays and import duty exemptions, the government can also explore other
options such as creating Special Economic Zones (SEZs) for the pharma industry to create
localized, internationally competitive export environments. SEZs already have a proven track
record as SEZs in India and China have significantly boosted pharma exports.
Similar to the way the government is currently supporting the IT industry, it can hold various
seminars, conferences and exhibitions to promote the industry. Creating a dedicated seed
fund, or even better, a venture capital fund for funding entrepreneurs aspiring to carry out
R&D for emerging products such as biologic drugs is also another option that is worth
considering.
Engage in Contract Manufacturing with MNCs: Bangladesh’s considerable cost advantages
makes it a good candidate for contract manufacturing as MNCs are looking to shift outsourcing
operations from previously cost effective regions such as India and China. Already a 60 billion
USD business, contract manufacturing has huge potential for Bangladesh.
26
IT and ITES Growth Key to Achieving Digital Bangladesh
With modest beginnings in the late 90s, the ITES industry has come a long way.
Buoyed by strong internet and mobile infrastructure along with falling internet
bandwidth costs, the ITES sector now has over 800 firms, along with 10,000
freelancers. With a current market size of 400 million USD, a significant
portion of the ITES industry is export oriented. Enjoying strong government
support and burgeoning private sector interest in tech startups, the IT and ITES
industries are targeted to capture 1 billion USD worth of exports by 2018.
400
Million USD
Total Market Size (FY 14-15)
132.54
Million USD
Total IT Exports (FY 14-15)
20-30%
Growth Per Annum
1
Billion USD
IT Export Target (2018)
27
Of the 800 IT companies currently registered in Bangladesh, majority of them are involved in
customized application development and maintenance. This caters to the needs of firms in sectors like
banking, telecom, pharmaceutics, RMG and Textile sectors, who have contributed to the increasing
domestic demand for customized ITES solutions.
Manufacturing sectors including garment, textile and pharmaceuticals have created sustainable
demand for IT solutions like ERP, HR and Payroll management systems, and production and financial
management software. As a result, the domestic IT service industry has grown by 20 to 30 percent per
annum over the last few years (Source: BASIS).
Although most Bangladeshi market players initially offered their services and products predominantly
on the domestic market, Bangladeshi software solutions and ITES are nowadays exported to other
regions like Europe and Northern America.
Around 200 Bangladeshi ICT companies are serving international markets offering outsourcing
services and project delivery models. Total IT and ITES exports stand at 132.34 Million USD for FY 14-
15.
76%50%
45%18%17%
11%7%
3%3%
Customized Application
IT Enabled Services
E-commerce
Product Development
Mobile Application
System Integration
R&D Services
IT Infrastructure
Reseller
SPECIALIZATION OF IT & ITES COMPANIES
Software
44%
ITES
56%
Industry Revenue Proportion
SOURCE: BASIS
SOURCE: BASIS
26.08 24.0932.91 35.96
45.31
70.81
101.63
124.72 132.54
FY 2
006-
07
FY 2
007-
08
FY 2
008-
09
FY 2
009-
10
FY 2
010-
11
FY 2
011-
12
FY 2
012-
13
FY 2
013-
14
FY 2
014-
15
Yearly IT Export Earnings (USD mn)
68%
33%20% 18% 15%
9% 9% 8% 8% 8%
USA UK
Cana
da
Aust
ralia
Denm
ark
Net
herla
nds
Ger
man
y
Indi
a
Japa
n
UAE
TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
SOURCE: BASIS, EPB
SOURCE: BASIS
28
In terms of export destinations, North America (Canada and the US) dominates, whereas European
countries like the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany have emerged over the last few years as
major export destinations. Furthermore, with over 10,000 ICT freelancers active in Bangladesh as of
2015, the prospect of IT outsourcing is now brighter than ever.
The government’s Digital Bangladesh initiative has played an instrumental role in helping to boost IT
exports through setting up infrastructure for enhanced connectivity, ICT based citizen service delivery
and also an ICT based Education system.
Initiatives like Digital World and BASIS Softexpo are playing a positive role in building awareness and
promoting IT sector to both domestic and the international market. Internet connectivity has been
vastly enhanced over the country, with internet penetration standing at 23.03% as of 2015.
Although it is still in its infancy, ITES industry’s robust growth rate (19.8% CAGR per annum) represents
an opportunity to build the next thrust sector for Bangladesh exports. The global ITES market is vast
(2.19 trillion USD), and with the right strategies, Bangladesh can become a key global player before
long.
Sub-sectors such as BPO (93.4 billion USD) are sizeable in their own right. India, the market leader in
BPO, currently has a BPO export earnings of 19 billion USD.
At the moment the majority of ITES firms (62%) in Bangladesh cater only to the domestic market. In the
long run, however, export-orientation is the only logical choice for using ITES as a major avenue for
export-led growth.
Domestic-
Driven, 62%
Export-
Oriented,
38.00%
FOCUS OF ITES FIRMS IN BANGLADESH
19
14.4
2
India Phillipines Sri Lanka
EXPORT EARNINGS OF TOP BPO EXPORTERS (USD
BN) IN FY 13-14
SOURCE: BASIS, IDLC
SOURCE: GULF TIMES, CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
29
For the last few years, Bangladesh has seen the rapid rise of a vibrant startup community. This mostly
informal but tightly connected private sector community, which consists of investors, mentors and
startup evangelists, have worked closely with government initiatives such as a2i and Digital World.
Startup events such as Innovation Xtreme have also attracted global attention to the exciting tech
startup developments in Bangladesh.
Local ventures like BDJobs.com and NewsCred have raised international funds with many local tech companies like chaldal.com raising seed finance from local and international investor networks. In the last year, the startup community has become more organized with several incubators, mentorship and networking platforms and even accelerators appearing in quick succession.
Notable stakeholders acting in this regards include the Founders’ Institute, Seedstars Dhaka, Startup Bangladesh, Startup Cup Bangladesh and most recently, GP Accelerator. With the growth of such an extensive support structure buoyed by both public sector and private sector support, there is now more opportunity than ever for aspiring IT entrepreneurs to enter the market and contribute to the industry’s growth on both national and global levels.
30
Global Brands Already Aboard the Bandwagon
Many multinational companies are maintaining market presence as a
precursor to more heavy involvement. However, some major international
companies in different sectors have chosen to take the plunge and enjoy
superior returns. Some of them are:
31
Investing in B angladesh
Recently, attractiveness of Bangladesh as an investment destination has increased manifold, especially due to the country’s preferential trade status in major international markets, inexpensive labor and proximity to China and India. Increasing labor costs in China has further precipitated a shift of investment to neighboring regions. Given the backdrop, Bangladesh government is keen to attract investment not only to positively tilt the balance of payment position, but to further rejuvenate the economy through employment generation and GDP growth.
A host of policies have been adopted to incentivize foreign investment. Tax Holidays: Foreign investors will receive tax holiday ranging from 5 to 7 years based on geographic location. For instance, for industrial enterprises located in Dhaka and Chittagong, tax holiday is for five years. While it is seven years for locations in Khulna, Sylhet, Barisal and Rajshahi divisions. Accelerated depreciation facility: Industrial units financed by foreign investors will enjoy an accelerated depreciation allowance post tax holiday period. Such allowance is available at 100 per cent cost of the machinery or plant if the industrial undertaking is set up in the areas falling within Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna. If the industrial undertaking is set up elsewhere in the country, accelerated depreciation is allowed at the rate of 80 per cent in the first year and 20 per cent in the second year. Concessionary duty on imported capital machinery: No import duty will be charged for imported machinery for industrial units which are 100% export oriented in nature. For the rest, 5% import duty will be charged for initial installation or BMRE/BMR of the existing industries. Full repatriation of Capital: Full repatriation of capital invested from foreign sources will be allowed. Similarly, profits and dividend accruing to foreign investment may be transferred in full. If foreign investors reinvest their dividends and or retained earnings, those will be treated as new investments. Legal protection: The policy framework for foreign investments in Bangladesh is based on 'The Foreign Private Investment (Promotion & Protection) Act. 1980, which ensures legal protection to foreign investment in Bangladesh against nationalization and expropriation. It also guarantees non-discriminatory treatment between foreign and local investment, and repatriation of proceeds from sales of shares and profit. Despite change in government, there has been a continuity of policies with regards to attracting foreign investments. Bilateral agreement and treaty: The Government of Bangladesh has a series of bilateral investment agreements with a number of countries in Asia (China, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines), Europe (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Sweden, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, Italy, Romania, Switzerland, Turkey) and North American (Canada, USA). In addition, Bangladesh is a signatory to MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency), OPIC (Overseas Private Investment Corporation) of USA, ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes) and a member of the WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization) permanent committee on development co-operation related to industrial property. Preferential Trade Agreements: Bangladesh has a number of preferential trade agreements with countries having significant market size e.g. GSP with EU, quota and tariff free access to Canada and Japan.
32
Alongside, Bangladesh has recently signed Trade and Investment Co-operation Framework Agreement (TICFA) with the US where bilateral trade issues will be discussed. Currently, talks are underway to revive the GSP suspension imposed by the US government last year.
International investors can undertake investments seamlessly through the Board of Investment (BOI) and Central Bank’s support.
Foreign investors can also invest directly in Bangladesh’s vibrant Capital market which can hedge investor’s portfolio risks in the event of global economic downturn. The following steps need to be taken by foreign investor for investing in the capital market:
A Foreign Currency (FC) Account is needed for inward and outward remittance.
A Non-resident Investor’s Taka Account (NITA) is required for converting foreign currency into Taka.
All Capital Market investors are required to conduct trading through a Stock Broking Account maintained with any Stock Broker/Member of the respective Stock Exchange.
In order to trade dematerialized shares listed with the Stock Exchanges, investors must have a Beneficiary Owners (BO) Account with CDBL.
NRB & Foreign Investors may choose to appoint a Custodian to ensure trade execution and safe custody of shares.
Set-up of plant:
- Purchase/lease of factory land
- Import of machinery
- Industrial Adhoc IRC
- clering of capital machinery
- Environmental Risk clearance
- Fire license
- Connection of utility lines
Step-3
Application to BOI will include:
- BOI prescribed form
- Project profile
- Memorendum of Artices of Association
- Certificate of incorporation
- TIN/ VAT registration
- Trade license
Step-2
-Opening bank account as per 'Foreign Exchange transactions 1996.
- Trade license
- Tin Certificate
- Company formation
Step-1
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firm. We work at the intersection of market
data and company specifics to simplify
decisions and drive business growth. Till date,
we have served several reputable clients
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KPMG and Delloite.
About Us
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