Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State SOURCE:

Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State

SOURCE: www.nationalatlas.gov

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Back to Blue? Shifting Tides in the Tar Heel State

The State of North Carolina The Candidates The Campaign The Results

SOURCE: www.nationalatlas.gov

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

The State of North Carolina

Race/Ethnicity 70.5% White 21.3% Black 1.8% Hispanic 6.7% Asian

Occupation 36% White Collar 64% Blue Collar

Median Income $43.9k

Partisanship 34% Republican 45% Democrats

‘04 Presidential Vote

Bush, +12%

SOURCE: www.nationalatlas.gov

Figure 1. Republican Strength in North Carolina Federal Elections 1960–2006

Figure 2. Republican Strength in North Carolina State Elections 1960–2006

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

The Candidates: Incumbent Elizabeth Dole

SOURCE: bioguide.congress.gov

Occupation President, American Red Cross, 1991-99

Political Experience

Secretary of Labor, 1989-90 Secretary of Transportation,

1983-87 Director, White House

Office of Public Liaison, 1981-1983

Federal Trade Commission, 1975-1979

Deputy Assistant to the President for Consumer Affairs, 1969-1973

First Elected 2002

Committees Armed Services Banking, Housing, and

Urban Affairs Small Business and

Entrepreneurship

Table 1. Congressional Vote Scores for Elizabeth Dole, 2003-08

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

The Candidates: Challenger Kay Hagan

Occupation Attorney Banker

Political Experience

Senator, North Carolina State Senate, 1999-2009

SOURCE: hagen.senate.gov

Figure 3. Approval of Barak Obama and Kay Hagan, April 2008-October 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

The Campaign: “Results”

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The Campaign: “Salisbury”

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The Campaign: “Only”

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The Campaign: “Days B”

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The Campaign: “Budget Expert”

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The Campaign: “Voices”

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The Campaign: “Level”

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The Campaign: “Factory”

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The Campaign: “Votes”

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The Campaign: “Market”

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The Campaign: “Ineffective”

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The Campaign: “Rocking Chairs”

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The Campaign: “Firepower”

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The Campaign: “Arf (Fibber Kay)”

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The Campaign: “Ka-Ching (Fibber Kay 2)”

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The Campaign: “Promises (Godless Americans)”

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The Campaign: “Promises 2 (Godless Americans 2)”

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The Campaign: “Belief”

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The Campaign: “Crossed”

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The Campaign: “Closer Look”

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The Campaign: “Hoax”

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The Campaign: “Bear”

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The Campaign: “Foreign Language”

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The Campaign: “Travel”

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The Campaign: “Really”

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The Results

Table 2. Selected Exit Poll Results from the 2008 North Carolina Senate Race