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COST Action TU1001 Public Private Partnerships in Transport:
Trends & Theory P3T3
Athena Roumboutsos Action TU1001 Chair
Assoc. Professor Dpt. Shipping, Trade and Transport, University of the Aegean, Greece
PPPs in Transport: Trends & Theory
Introduction to COST Action TU1001 – Public Private Partnerships in Transport: Trends & Theory (P3T3)
P3T3 Objectives
P3T3 Set up
P3T3 Research
P3T3 & Future
Overview
P3T3 Network: Who’s Who
5 Non-COST Countries : AU, HK, CH, US, AL & WB
OR ≅ 100 Researchers from approx. 50 institutes
COST Action TU1001, 2010 - 2014
P3T3: Objectives (Memorandum of Understanding,
MoU)
….The aim of the Action is to develop a theoretical basis for PPPs in the transport sector grounded on the multidisciplinary analysis of an extensive cross-sectoral and transnational empirical data-set.
….. a shift from a descriptive to a normative approach
……for the prediction and forecasting of variations, impacts and outcomes.
European PPP Market
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
Number of deals
Value in Billion Euro
Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04 The Market, 2010, EIB The Market, 2011, EIB
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009
UK
All Others
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009
UK
All Others
European Transport PPP Market
Share of Number of Transport deals
Share of Value of Transport PPPs
Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04
European PPP Market 2003-2012 by Volume and Number of projects
(source: EPEC, 2012)
1990-2006 Transport 80% of value
Since 2010 Transport below 50% + ramifications (eg. slow
down, renegotiations etc.)
P3T3: Objectives (MoU)
Decision making process Selection, implementation and
operation of PPP transport projects considering sustainable procurement‘ and value propositions‘
PPP performance CSF, KPIs, test criteria
Impact of External Events Implications of the financing
arrangement.
Modal perspective
National Perspective
Organizational Set up
Core Group
WG1 Leader: Nunzia Carbonara, Politecnico di Bari (IT)
WG2 Leader: Champika Liyanage, University of Central Lancashire (UK)
WG3 Leader: Athena Roumboutsos, University of the Aegean (GR) & Geert Dewulf, University of Twente (NL)
AWG1 Leader: Koen Verhoest, University of Antwerp (BE)
AWG2 Leader: Rosario Macario, IST (PT)
Vice-Chair: Thierry Vanelslander, University of Antwerp (BE)
Chair: Athena Roumboutsos, University of the Aegean (EL)
Research WG: Decision Models
Deterministic Models
Stochastic Models
Flexible Models
Complete Contracts
Incomplete Contracts
Real Options Flexibility Theory Risk Mitigation Strategies Tendering Field of Applicability
Policy Guidance Framework
TEST/SIMULATE/SURVEY
Research WG: Performance Step 5:
Performance Analysis and Improvement
Step 1: Performance
Definition
Step 2: Objectives (at Different
levels)
Step 3: Criteria
(Based on KPIs and CSF)
Step 4: Benchmarking
Policy Guidance Framework
Research AWG: Modal Context
Case Study Database
FOR
Testing Theories
Benchmarks
Analysis
Synthesis
…..References http://www.ppptransport.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=81&Itemid=78
Research AWG: National Context
National Characteristics Database Legal framework Business structures Etc
Impact of External events Macroeconomic
Figures Transport Demand
FOR
Testing Theories
Benchmarks
Analysis
Synthesis
Correlations
…..References
http://www.ppptransport.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=82&Itemid=82
Research WG: “Impact of External Events”
Addressing Contract Incompleteness Changes in initial
Assumptions Changes in initial
Predictions Changes in initial “values” Changes in Perceptions Changes transport market
structure & regulations
New Financing Models
New Needs in Transport
New Value creation
New PPP Models
Addressing Existing PPPs Renegotiations
Complete Contracts
Incomplete Contracts
Survey on Risk “shift” DP – shift (delta) in estimated risk probability of
occurrence DI – shift (delta) in estimated risk impact
Research WG: Addressing Incompleteness Examples of Work Underway
Countries without a sovereign debt crisis
-1.0000
-0.5000
0.0000
0.5000
1.0000
1.5000
DP_NO
DI_NO
Initial Findings
Countries with a sovereign debt crisis
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
DP_Yes
DI_Yes
Initial Findings
Connecting Dots … Research
Flexible Decision Models
KPIs & CSFs
Addressing Incompleten
ess
Policy Guidelines
Transport Policy Procurement / Contract Guidelines
Model Building
Model Testing
Expected Outcome
P3T3 Value Propositions Visualizing flexible Value System models
Research
Addressing Incompleteness
P3T3 Now & Future
Why PPPs?
Because Transport PPPs are under stress
Because they are too many and too important to fail
Because there are too many implications not to take scientifically founded decisions
What to do?
Identify the value structure (what is value for the various parties and how it is assessed)
Test the value structure (how are they combined to make a viable endeavor)
P3T3 & CV
Dissemination 2013
March 18-20, 2013; Conference, Public Private Partnerships Body of Knowledge; Preston, UK; Organized by University of Central Lancaster, CIB and COST Action TU1001 (P3T3); http://www.pppconference2013.com/May 22, 2013;
May 22, 2013; International Transport Forum/OECD; Side Event: Value Creation and Capture: Next Generation of Transport Public Private Partnerships; Leipzig, Germany; http://2013.internationaltransportforum.org/value-creation-and-capture
June 17-19, 2013; Conference, Innovative Public Finance, Special Session P3T3 Case Study Showcase; Milano, Italy; http://www.ipfconference.org/
July 15-18 2013; Conference, WCTRS, Special Session P3T3; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; http://www2.wctr2013rio.com/
August 5-7, 2013; Conference, 1st International Public Private Partnership Conference, Special Session P3T3 (TBC); Dalian, China; http://ppp-china.dlut.edu.cn/
September 30 – October 2, 2013; European Transport Conference, Special Session P3T3; Frankfurt, Germany; http://etcproceedings.org/
November 6-7, 2013; Conference, "Global challenges in Public Private Partnerships: Cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary solutions?"; Antwerp, Belgium; Co-organized with COST Action TU1001; http://www.ua.ac.be/main.aspx?c=*TPR&n=112187
And…
Training Courses
STSM
Journal Special Issues
Books
P3T3 Network Motto
Mobilize private finance
Optimize PPP agreements in the Transport Sector - the most sensitive to the global economy sector
Visualize and prepare for the future
Empower Innovation and Sustainability
MOVE Europe
www.ppptransport.eu www.cost.eu/domains_actions/tud/Actions/TU1001&
Thank YOU
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