ASPO -USA Challenges of Transition to Sustainability Parallels with Apollo 13 Roscoe G. Bartlett...

ASPO -USAASPO -USA

Challenges Challenges ofof

Transition Transition toto

SustainabilitySustainabilityParallels with Apollo 13Parallels with Apollo 13

Roscoe G. BartlettRoscoe G. BartlettMember of CongressMember of Congress

[Renewable Resources Began The Industrial Age : Wind, Water Power, Wood & Agriculture]

The Essence of the Problem:There is NO Ready Substitute!

The Gap begins Here

Apollo 13:They Almost Didn’t Make it!

•Practice and cooperation essential: Practice and cooperation essential: Contingency plans paid off – Lunar Contingency plans paid off – Lunar Lander served as “lifeboat”Lander served as “lifeboat”•Had to conserve energy Had to conserve energy drastically, with some to spare for drastically, with some to spare for course changes – goal not just to course changes – goal not just to use a bit less, but to make it all the use a bit less, but to make it all the way to a safe landingway to a safe landing•Had to speed return before Had to speed return before supplies ran outsupplies ran out•Had complication: CO2 buildup to Had complication: CO2 buildup to overcomeovercome•Had to hit tiny “Reentry Window” Had to hit tiny “Reentry Window” to make it to a soft landing, but to make it to a soft landing, but giving up was not an optiongiving up was not an option

Easter Island: They Didn’t Make it!

Potential AlternativePotential Alternative Solutions Solutions

• Finite ResourcesFinite Resources- Tar Sands- Tar Sands- Oil Shale- Oil Shale- Coal- Coal

• NuclearNuclear- Fission, Light Water- Fission, Light Water- Fission, Breeder- Fission, Breeder- Fusion- Fusion

• Renewable ResourcesRenewable Resources- Solar- Solar- Wind- Wind- Ocean Energy- Ocean Energy- Hydropower- Hydropower- Geothermal- Geothermal- Agricultural- Agricultural

* Soy/Biodiesel* Soy/Biodiesel* Ethanol* Ethanol* Methanol* Methanol* Biomass* Biomass

- Waste to Energy- Waste to Energy- Hydrogen from Renewables- Hydrogen from Renewables

Current Contribution of Renewables

“POME” ANALYSIS PROBLEM:

OBJECTIVE:

METHOD:

EVALUATION:

Long Term Growth of Energy Use WILL Exceed Both Finite Conventional Resources AND Limited (Renewable) Energy/ Environmental Resources

Rapidly Reduce Consumption to Buy Time, Save $ & Energy Needed to Invest in Transition to Renewables @ Sustainable Levels

To Transition to Sustainable Energy Economy Before Resources are Depleted

Test/Optimize Options by Modeling – Establish Measurable Indices of Success

Filling the Gap:Implementation of Mitigation Strategies

Effects of Delay on Mitigation Efforts

“Last Chance for Sustainability”Reduce Consumption, Buy Time, Save Capital & Energy to

Invest in Transition

How Can We Achieve Sustainability?

It will Require a Crash Program that Combines

the Daring and Clarity of Vision of the Apollo

Program and the Urgency and Commitment of

the Manhattan Project.

The World will have to Mobilize and Unite

Around this Shared Challenge to our Survival.

We Will Need to Start Immediately on Three Fronts, Simultaneously:

Most Urgent:

Prepare Proactively -

Like Apollo 13 Astronauts,

develop contingency plans

for dealing with

anticipatable disruptions

Most important:

Reduce Energy

Consumption

Dramatically -

Short Term:

By Conservation,

to Buy Time, Save Money

& Energy

Long Term:

Develop Efficient

“Leapfrog”

Technologies

Ultimate Goal:

Achieve Sustainability-

Short Term:

Use Saved Resources Wisely,

Develop Alternatives with

Highest Energy Profit Ratios

Long Term:

Develop, Demonstrate,

Implement & Rely Upon

Self-Powered (Non-Fossil),

Housing, Agriculture &

Industries

Can We “Go it Alone”?

• Pro: by taking the lead in dramatically reducing consumption and improving efficiency to the degree that Renewable Resources can affordably supply what is needed, others who aspire to live like us will be able to!

• Con: by acting on our own, without international cooperation, we will merely enable other countries to have access to more, cheaper oil, using it up just as fast.

International Cooperation

We are all in the same boat!

Clearly, we would do better to engage the Nations of the world in a competition to achieve sustainability, instead of a consumption contest!

Short/Medium Term Energy Saving Options

Energy Savings (Avoided Oil Imports)

Time /Cost to

implement

VoluntaryConservation

Organized Vol. Conservation

Monetary Incentives/Policies for Vol. Cons.

Efficient TechnologyRetrofits

Monetary Incentives/Policies

for Efficient Technologies

Potential of Energy Efficiency: Example of Lighting

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Incandescent Fluorescent LightEmitting

Diode

Ene

rgy

LIGHTHEAT

VW “1 Litre” (300 mpg) Car

Beginning the Transition to Sustainability:

Self Powered Buildings - Design Competition Winner

Net Food & Energy Producing Farms [Solar Utility Vehicle]

Self Powered Industry“Solar Breeder”

Self Powered VehiclesAustin – Calgary Solar Car Rayce Winners

What Will be Needed?

• Vision • Wisdom • Leadership• Scientific Understanding• Rational Decision Making• International Cooperation

We Have Only Just Begun to:

• Inform Colleagues to Build Consensus at All Levels of Government: Special Order Speeches, Energy Conference, Distribution of Books and Charts

• Initiate Legislation : Self-Powered Visitors/Tech Exhibition Center Design Competition - Beginning Construction Phase; Draft Energy Farms Initiative to Promote Net Food & Energy from Agriculture…

• Some encouraging signs are evident…• You can help! – Meet with your Representatives and

share your concerns

Potential for Renewables?

What Level can be Sustained with Non-Fossil Resources?

Parallels with Apollo 13 (They Made it!):

Apollo 13:Apollo 13:•Practice and cooperation essential: Practice and cooperation essential: Contingency plans paid off – Lunar Contingency plans paid off – Lunar Lander served as “lifeboat”Lander served as “lifeboat”•Had to conserve energy drastically, with Had to conserve energy drastically, with some to spare for course changes – goal some to spare for course changes – goal not just to use a bit less, but to make it all not just to use a bit less, but to make it all the way to a safe landingthe way to a safe landing•Had to speed return before supplies ran Had to speed return before supplies ran outout•Had complication: CO2 buildup to Had complication: CO2 buildup to overcomeovercome•Had to hit tiny “Reentry Window” to Had to hit tiny “Reentry Window” to make it to a soft landing, but giving up make it to a soft landing, but giving up was not an optionwas not an option

World Today:World Today:•Will have to prepare contingency plans, Will have to prepare contingency plans, be prepared cooperate and “make do” be prepared cooperate and “make do” with what is on handwith what is on hand•Will have to reduce energy demand to Will have to reduce energy demand to below supply, not just to make it last below supply, not just to make it last longer, but to have enough to spare for longer, but to have enough to spare for transition to sustainabilitytransition to sustainability•Will have to use resources saved wisely, Will have to use resources saved wisely, to avoid Jevons Paradoxto avoid Jevons Paradox•Will have to deal with CO2 buildup – Will have to deal with CO2 buildup – wise strategies serve both endswise strategies serve both ends•Will have to overcome nearly Will have to overcome nearly impossible odds to make it to a soft impossible odds to make it to a soft landing – a sustainable energy economy landing – a sustainable energy economy

– – giving up is not an optiongiving up is not an option!!

http://www.bartlett.house.gov/