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RE
FE
RE
NC
ES
:D
ixon
, K. W
., et
al.,
201
6: E
valu
atin
g th
e st
atio
nari
ty a
ssum
ptio
n in
sta
tistic
ally
dow
nsca
led
clim
ate
proj
ectio
ns: i
s pa
st
per
form
ance
an
indi
cato
r of
fut
ure
resu
lts?
Cli
mat
ic C
hang
e, 1
35, 3
95–4
08.
Lan
zant
e, J
. R.,
et a
l., 2
017:
Som
e P
itfal
ls I
n S
tatis
tical
Dow
nsca
ling
Of
Fut
ure
Clim
ate.
Bul
l. A
mer
. Met
eor.
Soc.
, in
pres
s.L
i, H
., J
. She
ffie
ld, a
nd E
. F. W
ood,
201
0: B
ias
corr
ectio
n of
mon
thly
pre
cipi
tatio
n an
d te
mpe
ratu
re f
ield
s fr
om I
nter
gove
rn-
men
tal P
anel
on
Clim
ate
Cha
nge
AR
4 m
odel
s us
ing
equi
dist
ant q
uant
ile m
atch
ing.
J. G
eoph
ys. R
es.,
115,
D10
101.
crea
te d
ata
sets
that
ser
ve a
s pr
oxie
s fo
r co
arse
res
olut
ion
GC
M o
utpu
t.
A k
ey d
iffe
renc
e be
twee
n th
is P
M e
xper
imen
tal d
esig
n an
d ty
pica
l SD
ap
plic
atio
ns is
the
avai
labi
lity
of "
futu
re o
bser
vatio
ns"
(OF
) in
the
PM
de
sign
, whi
ch a
llow
s us
to e
valu
te a
n S
D m
etho
d's
futu
re s
kill,
ther
eby
quan
tifyi
ng a
spec
ts o
f th
e st
atio
nari
ty a
ssum
ptio
n.
Mon
th: A
ugus
t. L
ocat
ion
: ne
ar &
inla
nd o
f P
adre
Is
land
, Tex
as. A
25k
m g
rid
cell
sim
ilar
to m
any
coas
tal p
oint
s in
that
it is
mos
tly la
nd, b
ut th
e ov
erly
ing
200k
m g
rid
valu
es a
re m
ore
mar
itim
e.
Th
e S
tati
stic
al D
own
scal
ing
Ch
alle
nge
: D
istr
ibu-
tions
of
daily
Aug
ust t
asm
ax O
H &
OF
val
ues
have
larg
er v
aria
nces
, hig
her
mea
ns, a
nd d
iffe
rent
sh
apes
(m
ore
posi
tivel
y sk
ewed
) th
an d
o th
e m
ore
mar
itim
e M
H, M
F d
istr
ibut
ions
. A
lso,
the
clim
ate
chan
ge s
igna
l cau
ses
mos
t lat
e 21
st c
entu
ry M
F
valu
es to
exc
eed
the
war
mes
t his
tori
cal M
H v
alue
.
His
tori
cal P
erio
d S
D P
erfo
rman
ce:
All
thre
e S
D
met
hods
per
form
rel
ativ
ely
wel
l, yi
eldi
ng A
ugus
t m
onth
ly m
ean
dow
nsca
ling
err
ors
(DH
- O
H)
of
< 0
.25K
. A
lso,
all
SD
met
hods
gen
erat
e D
H
dist
ribu
tions
with
sha
pes
and
vari
ance
s th
at m
ore
clos
ely
rese
mbl
e th
e O
H d
istr
ibut
ion
than
the
larg
e-sc
ale
and
mor
e m
ariti
me
MH
tasm
ax d
ata.
Fu
ture
Per
iod
SD
Per
form
ance
: T
he E
DQ
M &
B
CQ
Man
om m
etho
ds p
erfo
rm m
arke
dly
bette
r th
an B
CQ
M d
oes
in th
e w
arm
er f
utur
e –
the
oppo
site
of
the
resu
lts s
een
in th
e C
arbo
ndal
e, C
Oca
se. A
t the
Pad
re I
slan
d 25
km g
rid
cell,
BC
QM
in
trod
uces
a m
ean
bias
of
+4.
6K f
or th
e la
te 2
1st
cent
ury
Aug
ust c
ase,
and
mul
ti-de
gree
war
m
bias
es o
ccur
at m
ost U
.S. s
outh
ern
coas
tal l
and
poin
ts (
uppe
r m
ap).
Suc
h S
D-c
reat
ed w
arm
bia
ses
are
not f
ound
in th
e E
DQ
M (
low
er m
ap)
&
BC
QM
anom
cas
es. M
etho
ds li
ke B
CQ
M th
at d
ono
t adj
ust f
or f
utur
e tr
ends
can
bre
ak d
own
whe
npo
sed
with
MF
> m
ax(M
H),
as
they
may
rel
y on
ad h
oc ta
il ad
just
men
ts to
app
ly th
e co
rrec
tion
at m
ax(M
H)
to a
ll w
arm
er M
F v
alue
s –
a po
orch
oice
whe
n th
e M
H a
nd O
H d
istr
ibut
ion
shap
esdi
ffer
. SD
met
hods
that
inco
rpor
ate
adju
stm
ents
fo
r tr
ends
gua
rd a
gain
st th
is p
artic
ular
pitf
all.
His
tori
cal P
erio
d D
ow
nsc
alin
g E
rro
rs v
s. M
H v
alu
es(B
CQ
M r
esul
ts s
how
n. O
ther
SD
met
hods
are
sim
ilar)
Fu
ture
Per
iod
Do
wn
sca
ling
Err
ors
vs.
MF
val
ues
(BC
QM
& E
DQ
M s
how
n. B
CQ
Man
om s
imila
r to
ED
QM
)
a
rrow
on
map
spo
ints
to P
adre
Is
land
grid
cel
l
Exa
min
ing
th
e P
erfo
rman
ce o
f S
tati
stic
al D
ow
nsc
alin
g M
eth
od
s:To
war
d M
atch
ing
Ap
plic
atio
ns
to D
ata
Pro
du
cts
Kei
th W
. Dix
on ,
John
R. L
anza
nte
, & D
enni
s A
dam
s-S
mith
(1
) N
OA
A G
eoph
ysic
al F
luid
Dyn
amic
s La
bora
tory
, Prin
ceto
n, N
J
(2)
Uni
vers
ity C
orpo
ratio
n fo
r Atm
osph
eric
Res
ear
ch
Th
is w
ork
was
fu
nd
ed i
n p
art
by
the
U.S
. D
ept.
of
the
Inte
rior'
sSou
th C
entr
al C
lim
ate
Sci
ence
Cen
ter
Pro
ject
Web
Pag
e: w
ww
.gfd
l.no
aa.g
ov/
esd
1
1
2
PA43B-0321
Var
iab
le o
f In
tere
st =
Dai
ly M
axim
um
Tem
per
atu
re (
tasm
ax);
F
utu
re S
cen
ario
= L
ate
21s
t C
entu
ry H
igh
Gre
enh
ou
se G
as E
mis
sio
ns;
C
om
par
ing
3 U
niv
aria
te S
D M
eth
od
s
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