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APES 9/14-9/15 No Warm-Up!
Log in to a netbookPlease put your age structure diagram for your chosen country by the matching table tent. #2 on worksheet- change Japan to FranceRotate through stations looking at the diagrams and then answer the remaining discussion questions.
Due Dates, etc.FYI- Unit Test will be on 22nd (blue) and 23rd (gold) Ch. 7 Reading Assignment due 21st (gold) and 22nd (blue)Blue days- have at least read the chapter and done
the multiple choice for Friday the 18th
Learning TargetI can describe the 4 stages of Demographic Transition and explain why they correlate to a certain age structure diagram.
7.2 Billion: How did we get here?◦Cool animation of growth world wide http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion
Human Population Growth Human Population Growth HistoricallyHistorically
A. Early Hunter Gatherers1. Nomadic, with a strong sense of the earth2. Practiced intentional birth control
B. Rise of Agriculture1. Necessary for Survival
a. Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat
b. Humans began to cultivate own food
Human Population Growth Human Population Growth HistoricallyHistorically
C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities1. Food produced in country, consumed in city
a. Food wastes are no longer returned to soilb. Soil becomes less productive
2. Waste of populations concentrated in cities3. Population control in medieval societies
a. Infanticideb. Plagues
Human Population Growth Human Population Growth HistoricallyHistorically
D. Industrializationa. Children valued as cheap source of income and cheap laborb. Exponential growth of populations
By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Droppeda. Rise in standards of livingb. Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introducedc. Increase in the cost of child rearing
Increasing our Carrying Capacity
•Technology has allowed us to raise Earth’s carrying capacity for our species time and again.
•Tool-making, agriculture, and industrialization each enabled humans to sustain greater populations.
Over 95% of this Over 95% of this increaseincrease
will take place in will take place in “Developing“DevelopingCountries”Countries”
Population Population ProjectionsProjections
Patterns in developed vs. developing countries
Demographic Demographic TransitionTransition
Movement of a nation from high to low pop. growth as it develops economically:◦ Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high◦ Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high;
growth rate rises◦ Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises;
growth rate falls◦ Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to
a negative rate
Demographic Transition: Stages
Pop. Pyramids at Pop. Pyramids at Diff. StagesDiff. Stages
Stage 1Stage 1High birth rates, high (at times erratic) death rates, low growth ratesStage for much of human historyNo current countries
Stage 2Stage 2High birth rates, declining
death rates, rising growth ratesImprovements in sanitation
(water) and medicineIn U.S., Europe during
Industrial RevolutionIn developing countries since the 50s/60sMuch of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)
Demographic Trap Population Path of Most Less-Developed Countries “Trapped” in Stage 2
◦ Before 1970, these countries were poised to make transition thanks to economic growth
◦ Since 1970, econ. growth has not kept pace with population
◦ High birth and low death rates result in explosive population growth
◦ Downward spiral in standard of living
Demographic Fatigue
◦Lack of $$$ and ability to deal with natural disasters and disease
◦Possibility that countries suffering from demographic fatigues could slip back into Stage 1 of demographic transition
Stage 3Stage 3Continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levelsChange in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rateEconomic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)
Stage 4 & Stage 4 & 55
Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates
◦ United States today
Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)◦ several countries of Europe today (Austria)
Effects of Population Effects of Population DeclineDecline
As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline
60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume◦ more medical care◦ Social Security◦ costly public services
Labor shortages require automation & immigration
Demographic Transition ActivityDue next time!Graph + pieces arranged in proper order and glued/taped down.
Exit Task 9/14 & 9/15 On the provided half-sheet:
Name: __________________
1. What demographic
Transition phase is
Canada in?
2. Why does this phase
result in this particular
graph shape? (give at
least two reasons).
Where is the world in the Demographic Transition?
Stage 2! – There are many countries “stuck”
Why does the world need to move forward?
Factors that will influence this process…
Empowerment of women
Family planning programs
Poverty
HIV/AIDS
Human Population Human Population DynamicsDynamics
There are just three sources of change in population size —1.Fertility2.Mortality
"natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births
3.MigrationNet migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants
TFR and RFRTFR and RFR Total fertility rate (TFR)
◦ The average number of children born to a woman◦ Average in developed countries = 1.5◦ Average in developing countries = 3.8◦ Worldwide 1990: 3.1 Now: 2.5
Replacement fertility rate (RFR)◦ The # of children a couple must have to replace themselves◦ A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and
child mortality rates◦ Africa RFR = 2.5
Falling growth rates doesn’t mean fewer people!
Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing
http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/between-1960-and-2012-world-average-fertility-rate-halved-25-births-woman
Female Education and TFR
•Female literacy, school enrollment, and access to family planning are correlated with total fertility rate.
In 2007, 54% of married women worldwide used contraception; ◦ China = 86%; the U.S. = 68%; 20
African nations < 10%
•
What Is Family Planning?
Measures enabling parents to control number of children.Goals of Family Planning- healthy children that parents can care for; parents can have # children they desire.
Blue = family planning accessibleRed = family planning not accessible
The Int’l Conference on Pop. and Development
In 1994 Cairo, Egypt, 179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 yearsOffer better education and health care and alleviate
poverty, disease, and sexism Controversy in the U.S.• Currently, GOP House of Reps. is working on legislation to limit Planned Parenthood•Employers affiliated with religious orgs. have asked for exceptions to Affordable Care Act’s coverage of contraception (“Obamacare”)
Influencing Population Influencing Population SizeSize
Most countries restrict immigration◦ Canada, Australia, U.S. - most immigration
Involuntary immigration results from◦ armed conflict◦ environmental degradation◦ natural disaster --> environmental refugees
Migration from rural to urban areas
B. China’s Program1. Nation With Best Known Population Control Program2. Reasons Chinese Government Initiated Population Control
Measuresa. Freshwater and food at a premium for nation’s populationb. Country experiencing population momentum
3. Government Perks / Coercive Measures for Citizen Compliancea. Free education and health careb. Increased personal and family incomesc. Increased legal marrying age for womend. Contraceptives, abortions, and sterilizations free of chargee. Preferential housing and retirement income
Rewards and Penalties to reduce births
What might work:◦ encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children◦ reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families◦ don’t penalize for already existing larger family◦ increase poor family’s economic status
Case Studies - India Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 3.4 but population grow is still exponential -1.9%
Disappointing results due to:◦ poor planning◦ bureaucratic inefficiency◦ low status of women◦ extreme poverty◦ lack of administrative & financial support
Case Studies - China Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates
Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict:◦ postpone childbearing ◦ only one child/family -->benefits◦ effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would have mean disaster
Cutting Global Population Growth U. N.Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994
◦ 8 goals to be met by 2015 (p. 276)◦ are these goals wishful thinking?
Replacement level fertility can be met in 15-30 years as shown by Japan, Thailand…
Invest in family planning, reduce poverty, and elevate status of women
Population and the environment
Population growth can lead to environmental degradation.
Overpopulation in Africa’s Sahel region has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands. (China obviously also an ex.)
Affluence and the environment
Poverty can lead to environmental degradation…
BUT
wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far-reaching environmental impacts.
The wealth gap•Residents of developed nations have larger houses, more possessions, and more money than residents of developing nations.
•The richest 20% of the world’s people consumes 86% of its resources, and has > 80 times the income of the poorest 20%.
Food and Hunger 840 million people are hungry
799 million of those are in developing countries
The other 40 million are in developed countries
½ of the US population relies on food stamps
Food and Hunger 1.2 billion are overweight
30% of the U.S. population is obese
Why does this dichotomy exist?
POVERTY
Poverty in Developing Nations
Trade imbalances exist between developed nations and developing nations.
U.S. has outsourced production to these poverty-stricken nations.
Many will work under terrible conditions and long hours because it is a better alternative to continued poverty.
Ecological Footprints Environmental Impact Equation (Paul Ehrlich Formula)
I = P x A x T
I= Total Impact P= Population size A= Affluence T= Level of technology
Population growth affects the environment The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S◦ Our total impact (I) on the environment results from the
interaction of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T), with an added sensitivity (S) factor
◦ Population = individuals need space and resources◦ Affluence = greater per capita resource use◦ Technology = increased exploitation of resources◦ Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure◦ Further model refinements include education, laws, ethics
Humanity uses 1/3 of all the Earth’s net primary production
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