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“ASKING & ANSWERING AMBIGUOUS QUESTIONS”
Strategic Foresight
Strategic Foresight
“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Wayne Gretzky
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 2
Why do market
leaders so often get
caught off guard?
(i.e. play where
the puck used to be)
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 3
How did HP not foresee the “Post-PC era”?
“We know we’re the fifth man in a four man race.” Richard Kerris, HP Executive, WSJ, July 1, 2011
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 4
How did Kodak so underestimate the potential of digital photography…?
Can you guess who invented the
world’s first digital camera in 1975?
Bonus Question:
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 5
Mindset
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 6
Incumbents
“In business, I look for economic castles
protected by unbreachable ‘moats’.”
Warren Buffett
Competitive Convergence
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 7
Breakthrough Innovation
… all failed companies are the same –
they failed to escape competition.”
Peter Thiel
Mindset
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 9
Disruptors
Incumbents
Strategic Foresight
Position A
Position B
Can be a lens to uncontested strategic options
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 10
Existing Value Attributes New Value Attributes
Stretch Your Cognitive Proximity
Status
Quo
A
B
Enabling Technologies
Societal
Challenges/Constraints User Preferences
Breakthrough Innovation Core
Innovation
Breakthrough Innovations are likely to be
cognitively distant. Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 11
Stretching Your Cognitive Proximity
“You don’t get results by solving problems
but by exploiting opportunities” John Naisbitt, Mindset, 2006
If Fred Smith would have
tried to fix the post office,
he wouldn’t have created
FedEx
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 12
Cognitive Distance – “Moonshots”
That’s Great…
… but how do we get there from here?
And how do we avoid this?
Strategic Foresight THE ABILITY TO:
ANTICIPATE EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
THAT ARE COGNITIVELY DISTANT
DEFINE RESILIENT PLANS TO ENABLE
THEIR PURSUIT
Judging Too Soon
Deciding Too Late
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 16
Strategic Foresight
Mobilizing
Anticipating
Framing
“Get There Early”
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 17
Strategic Framing
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 18
What Is Your Unfair Advantage?
Strategic Framing
• Competencies (Activities) • Strategic Intent • Integration (Fit)
Competence 1
Competence 2 Competence 3
Strategic Intent
Wheelhouse
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 19
Anticipating Change
“Most commonly, new [strategic] positions open up because of change.”
Michael Porter
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 20
Possibilities, not Predictions
Envisioning Future Opportunities…
…Requires Empathy
“You’ve gotta start at the user experience
and work back to the technology” Steve Jobs
WWDC 1997
“… they’d have said a ‘faster horse’”
Henry Ford
Future
^
21
Overcoming Cognitive Inertia
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 22
“People who seem to have had a new idea,
have simply stopped having an old idea.”
Edwin Land Co-founder, Polaroid Corp.
FutureTelling
“Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”
Jim Dator, Futurist
University of Hawai’i
“Even a forecast that never happens is worthwhile if it provokes insight for you.”
Bob Johansen Institute For The Future
Mobilizing (Actionable Foresight)
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 24
“Long range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.” —Peter Drucker
Source: Get There Early, Bob Johansen,
Wind Tunnel Testing the Wheelhouse
What gaps exist in serving the emerging opportunities? What vulnerabilities exist? Clearly defined “Innovation Intent”
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 25
Scanning for Weak Signals
“Market transitions are the
precursors to market disruptions, and in many cases, transitions cause the disruptions.”
“Disruptions occur as the
market responds to a transition with a game-changing innovation.”
John Chambers, CEO, Cisco
“Cisco Sees the Future, An Interview with John Chambers”, HBR 2008
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 26
DISCOVERY CONSISTS OF SEEING WHAT EVERYONE ELSE HAS SEEN AND THINKING WHAT NO ONE HAS THOUGHT.
ALBERT VON SZENT-GYORGYI (1893 – 1986)
NOBEL PRIZE IN PHYSIOLOGY (MEDICINE)
MINDSET
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 27
Exec Ed Course Structure
I hear… and I forget
I see… and I remember
I do… and I understand
Confucius
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 28
Team Project Overview
Electric Vehicles Mobile Computing
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 29
Intriguing Questions…
…for the Executive MBA Council
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 30
Intriguing Questions…
How will augmented reality
impact learning?
the need for ^
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 31
Intriguing Questions…
W.W.G.P.D.?
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 32
INSTITUTIONS IN THE
WORLD THAT DELIVER
HIGHER EDUCATION.” 10 “50 YEARS FROM NOW,
THERE WILL ONLY BE
-SEBASTIAN THRUN, STANFORD UNIVERSITY & UDACITY
WIRED MAGAZINE, MARCH 20, 2012
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 33
Intriguing Questions…
W.W.U.D.?
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 34
Questions & Discussion…
Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 35
Thank You
36
Sam Miller Miller.549@nd.edu
574-631-6732
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