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Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014. Analyzing risks The Geopolitics of Land Degradation. Caux July 1st 2014 Luc GNACADJA. Biodiversity Risks & Threats in the 21st Century. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Analyzing risksThe Geopolitics of Land Degradation
Caux July 1st 2014Luc GNACADJA
Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014
BiodiversityRisks & Threats in the 21st Century"Global biodiversity models project that terrestrial species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species, species groups and biomes will continue throughout this century, with land use change being the main threat in the short term, and climate change becoming progressively much more important over the next several decades.”
Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem servicesSource: CBD , 2010)
Source: “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply” UNEP/IRP, 2014
Planetary BoundariesExpansion of global cropland till 2050:
Overshoot safe operating space
Land use change has transformed the Biosphere
Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)
World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)
Global land use is a key indicator of global sustainability and must be assessed & monitored
Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)
World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)
• The world might need additional cropland the size of Brazil by 2050
• The total additional land use demand in 2030 compare to land use in 2000 is 792 million ha in BAU scenario. (Source UNEP/IRP, 2014)
• Where will such expansion take place? • Again over the remaining natural
habitats while out there are more than 2 billion hectares of landscape that still hold potential for restoration?
Source: “Global Environmental Problems as a Risk to Security” German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2014
3 Conflicts Constellations• Water Scarcity• Loss of Land• Food Insecurity
4 HotsSpots• Sahel: Desertification & Drought• Middle East: Hydrological Water Scarcity &
Drought • Central Asia: Hydrolog. Water Scarcity &
Desertification• South & South East Asia: Tropical Cyclones
Hot spots of the security-related impacts of Climate Change and Desertification
Migration main trajectories
Drought Desertification Water Scarcity are major push factors for environmentally- induced migration
Migration Environment & Conflicts
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU (2007)
Functionchange
or
Functiontradeoff
Use intensification Forest Grassland
1. Undisturbed
2. Extensive
3. Intensive
DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?It’s all about trade-offs
From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation
Source: PBL 2009
Functionchange
or
Functiontradeoff
Degraded?
Use intensification Forest Grassland
1. Undisturbed
2. Extensive
3. Intensive
4. ..
DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?It’s all about trade-offs
10
2000
Potential
Soil factorNPP
FoodFiberWaterFloods
ClimateBiodiversity
2050
Business as usual
Future scenarios
0
Time2010 2020 2030 20401990
Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World (LDNW) by 2030
Figure adapted from Ben Ten Brink, 2013
Prevention
RestorationLDNW
options
LDNW by 2030 = Same amount of biologically & economically productive land including soil and its ecosystem services as in 2000
Ongoing change
Historical change
Objectif:Operate Land use expansion on already degraded areas
Priorities:1. Prevent
degradation2. Restore
degraded areas
Conclusion
Quoting Aldo Leopold and Francis Bacon‘We abuse land because we
regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.’
‘We cannot command Nature except by obeying her.’
Thank you
OWG-12
Preliminary List of SDGs
on June 16th 2014
Can’t see where CONSERVATIO
Ndoes’nt somehow
qualify
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