An Overview of PLEXOS - WECC Overview of...Market Analysts Prices and generation mix Fuel Budgeters...

Who uses PLEXOS, how and why?

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An Overview of PLEXOS

Agenda

• Introductions

• Who uses PLEXOS?

• How would you use PLEXOS?

• How is PLEXOS used?

• How does PLEXOS work?

• PLEXOS Data Sets

• PLEXOS Case Study Highlights

• Q&A

Introductions – Our Team

David Wilson, Chief Executive

Officer

Dr. Glenn Drayton, Chief

Software Designer

Prajval Parasravanthy, Chief Product

Officer

Ben Thompson, SVP & GM, Americas

Dr. Steven Broad, VP, Solution

Engineering

Who uses PLEXOS?Building the grid of the futureTransmission Planners

Choosing the portfolio of the futureGeneration Planners

Contracts, pipelines, storage, spotGas Planners

Prices and generation mixMarket Analysts

Estimating fuel burn and fuel contract pricing and hedgingFuel Budgeters

Bidding for contracts and optionsMarketers

Understanding value at risk; valuing uncertaintyRisk Managers

Adjusting forecasts to meet the circumstances on the groundOperators

Formulating Offers and running a portfolio against current bookTraders

Providing advisory services to businesses that invest or produce energyConsultants

How is PLEXOS used?

Transmission Planning

•Congestion Analysis

•Contingency Analysis

•Economic Valuation

•Economic CapEx

Generation Planning

• IRP, CapEx

•Renewables

•Hydro-Thermal

• Storage

•EE, DSM, DER

Market Analysis

•Price Forecasting

• Fuel Price Sensitivity

•Nodal / Zonal

•DA / HA / RT

•Economic Valuation

Risk Management

•Value at Risk

•Options and Hedging

•Monte Carlo

• Stochastic Unit Commitment

Natural Gas Planning

•Electric Power Cooptimization

•Pipeline and Storage Expansion

• Gas Contracts and Options

How is PLEXOS used?

Fuel Budgeting

• Estimate burn

• Fuel switching

• Fuel contracts

Marketing

• Portfolio Analysis

• Pricing blocks

• Leveraging markets

• Options

Trading

• DA/HA/RT

• Market Comm.

• Portfolio Optimization

• ETRM Integration

Operations

• DA/HA/RT

• EMS Integration

• Adjusting to forecast error

Consulting

• Advisory Services

• Market Forecasts

• Asset Valuation

How does PLEXOS work?

• Start with Energy Exemplar Data Sets

• Simulate cooptimization of Energy, Ancillary Services, Gas, etc.

• Get amazing performance from Commercial Solvers (Xpress, Gurobi, CPLEX, etc.)

• Analysis from wonderfully flexible reporting and visualization

LT Plan

• Expansion

• Retirement

• Retrofit

• Gen & Txn

PASA

• Maintenance Scheduling

• Reliability Metrics LOLE

• Maintenance Shaping

MT Schedule

• Resource Allocation

• Constraints

• Emissions

• Fuel

• Hydro

ST Schedule

• Unit Commitment

• Economic Dispatch

• Security Constraints

Phases of PLEXOS Execution

Elements of a PLEXOS Model

Generation

Generators

Batteries

Reservoirs

Contracts

AS

Transmission

Zones

Buses

Lines

Transformers

Gas-Electric

Suppliers

Pipelines

Storages

Contracts

Water-Power

Pumps

Generator Cooling

Desalination

Waste Treatment

Other

Stochastics

Generic Constraints

Time Series

Data Transformation

Transmission Modeling

SCUC/ED

• Energy/AS

• MIP

• DC-OPF

Network Applications

• Contingencies

• Post-formulated constraints

Gen schedules and initial flowsAdditional Constraints representing Violations

Long-term Optimization Capacity Expansion

Cost $

Objective: Minimize NPV of capital & production costs formulated as Mixed-Integer Problem

x = Assets

C(x): Capital Cost

P(x): Production Cost

Minimum cost plan

C(x) P(x)Total Cost

Long Term Planning

• Build plan with generation and transmission line options

• Also works with

• Batteries

• Emissions Abatements

• Retrofits and Conversions

• Transformers

• PARs

Multi-stage Simulation Approach

• Day-Ahead Forecasts of Load, Wind & Solar

• Contingency Flex & Regulation Reserve

Initial Market Unit Commitment

• Hour-Ahead Forecasted Load, Wind & Solar

• Contingency Flex and Regulation Reserve

Residual Unit Commitment • Sub-hourly 'actual'

Load, Wind and Solar

• Contingency & Regulation Reserve

Imbalance Energy

DA

HA

RT

Real time vs. Day Ahead

Stochastic Analysis

• Any input may be formulated with uncertainty• Outages, Prices, Load, Renewables, Gas Prices, etc.

• Advanced time series formulation• Monte Carlo• Stochastic Optimization• Visualization

Simulation Ready Datasets• Integrated Zonal Datasets

• Comprehensive resource and constraint modeling mapped to all interconnected zones

• U.S.-Canada Database

• European Database

• Mexico Database

• Nodal Datasets- Planning and Commercial• Eastern Interconnect (MMWG)

• Western Interconnect (Anchor)

• ERCOT (SSWG)

• SPP ITP

• MISO MTEP

• Publicly sourced, Dedicated team, Extensively documented, tested and calibrated, Detailed definitions, Updated continuously

Questions?