An overview of analytical findings and recent developments Roger Nelson, Director Peter Bancel,...

An overview of analytical An overview of analytical findings and recent developmentsfindings and recent developments

Roger Nelson, DirectorRoger Nelson, DirectorPeter Bancel, Principal AnalystPeter Bancel, Principal Analyst

Global Consciousness ProjectGlobal Consciousness Projecthttp://noosphere.princeton.eduhttp://noosphere.princeton.edu

What's Happening In the What's Happening In the Global Consciousness Global Consciousness

Project?Project?

StructureWhere there should be none

There is “some there there” Odds less than 1 in 1,000,000 Two independent measures Correlated response to events Distance structure Time structure Psychological structure Data anomalies vs selection A sampling of explorations

http://noosphere.princeton.edu/egghosts/

A World Spanning Network of REGs (EGGs)

Google Map of nodes

Internet transfer of data to Princeton It looks random: Combined dataFor a whole day, about 60 eggs

Average cumulative deviationshown by the black dotted line

We can see better what’s happening byPlotting cumulative deviations (2 - df)

Formal tests: First identify major events Then ask if there is a trend of accumulating deviations

Figures show sequential history of a sample ofData collected in a pre-defined time period

The test statistic is the terminal value

September 11 2001 Destruction of the World Trade Towers

A 50-hour trend followed the attacks

Two days

Synchronized Meditation Half a million people aroud the world

New Years Eve 1999-2008 (10 years 37 time zones)

Average Variance Decrease

Concatenate almost 10 years of formal data 250 rigorously defined global events

Odds: Million to 1 against chance

Small effect: The average Z-score is about 0.35

Independent Statistics

First order, S1, is called Netvar Second order, S2, is called

Covar

S2:

S1:

Control data, 1000 Resamplings of Database

S1+S2

S1

S2

Event data contain Highly significant correlations

Independent MeasuresSimulate Netvar with average effect Calculate Covar for same “events”

Blue = random Netvar

Red = random Covar

Time structure: Sliding the “event” away From the actual event time producesDrop-off for both Netvar and Covar

Blue = Network Variance

Red = Global Covariance

Correlatedmeasures

Event+/- 15 days

Dispersion = Netvar+Covar

Time structureCorrelation of two independent measuresZ-scores maximal for events ~ 1-2 hours

What might explain this?

Distance StructureIndependent measures, distance scaleBoth are driven by inter-reg correlation

Blue: pair-product data in 1000 km binsRed: simulation in 7 event pseudo-sets

Green line: regression fit to real dataBlue line: regression fit simulation data

Yellow: weighting for regression

Psychology: Netvar and Covar ResponseDiffers for Categories of events

Blue = NetvarRed = CovarGold = Relative DF

Netvar and Covar ResponseCorrelation in “Super” Categories

Blue = NetvarRed = CovarGreen = CorrelationGold = Relative DF

ANOVAInteraction: Statistic x Category

Blue = Netvar Red = Covar

Event Data Simulation Data

2-Way ANOVA: Netvar and Covar Statistic by Category Interaction

Data Sort P-value

3 categories 0.008

6 categories 0.057

6 cats + astro 0.042

6 cats +wcup 0.039

6 + astro + wcup 0.028

Daily Rhythm?Only exact 24 hour “day” shows

Evidence of correlation with consciousness

Explorations

Long term trend suggests Searching for external correlates

Social variable: Presidential Approval

Raw Approval Rating2 Parameter model fit

F = a (value) + b (slope)Red = polls

Blue = data

Red = polls

Blue = data

It is important to rememberthis is a correlation. There is no assertion of causation.

Explorations

All Earthquakes, Richter 6 or More Cumulative Deviation of Covariance

Controls (no humans affected)Ocean Quakes +/- 30 hours

Quakes on Land +/- 30 hours

Same trend, independent subsets Begin early ~ 8 hours before quake

Consciousness impliedPremonition suggested

GCP/EGG ProjectGCP/EGG ProjectThe people who make it goThe people who make it go

International collaboration of 100 Scientists, Artists, Friends, …

Peter Bancel, Paris, professional analysis, collaborationWilliam Treurniet, Canada, egganalysis programmingJohn Walker, Switzerland, programming, general supportRichard & Connie Adams, USA, general supportPaul Bethke, USA, windows programming, networkDick Bierman, Netherlands, design and realtime displayDean Radin, USA, design and independent analysisBrad Anderson, USA, widget programmingTaylor Jackson, Canada, realtime display maintenanceGreg & Lefty Nelson, USA, program architecture, general supportFernando Rodríguez, Spain, egghosts google mapLeane Roffey, USA, music, outreach, general supportJaroen Ruuward, Netherlands, realtime programmingDick Shoup, USA, independent analysisNishith Singh, India, realtime programmingMahadeva Srinivasan, India, general support… And all the EGG hosts around the world