An Analysis of the Challenges of the 2020 Renewable Energy Targets

Presented by Gordon Best

An Analysis of the Challenges of the 2020 Scottish Renewable Energy Targets

• 2020 Scottish Renewable Energy Targets• Why are Renewables Important?• Scottish Government Renewable Energy Strategy• Challenges• Trade Off• Viability of Target• Conclusions

Introduction

2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland, 2011

2020 Scottish Renewable Energy Targets

• Investigate the Government’s strategy, and the challenges which must be overcome to achieve success.

•Analyse the trade off between the cost, and results, of the strategy.

•Consider the overall viability of the target

Aims

• Economic Benefits- Job Creation, export potential, manufacturing boost

• Carbon and Environmental Benefits-Reduced carbon emissions and improved air quality

• Energy Security-Reduced dependency on other countries for energy supply

• Community Benefits-Greater public engagement in the energy sector

Why are Renewables Important?

Scottish Government Renewable Energy StrategyAverage Demand 6GW

2020 Target Capacity 16 GW

Total Pre Operational Capacity 13.4GW

Projected 2020 Capacity 20.80GW 

Scottish Government Renewable Energy Strategy

2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland, 2011

• Interviews with Government advisors & industry experts•Survey energy managers of large Scottish organisations•Survey members of the public

Methodology

Central Business Institute

:

1. Cost of Renewables

2. Planning Consents & Regulations

3. Secure Grid Access

4. Source Sustainable Fuel

5. Skills

6. Supply Chain/ Infrastructure

7. Innovation/ R & D

8. Public Engagement

Challenges

2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland, 2011

1. Cost of Renewables• Private, public and subsidised

investment• Reduced subsidy levels affecting

investor confidence• UK dropped from 6th to 13th most

attractive country to invest in renewable energy since 2011

Survey Monkey, 2016

1. Cost of Renewables• Audit Scotland project 68% capacity reached by 2020• Scottish Renewables project 87% capacity reached by 2020

Audit Scotland, 2012

2. Planning Consents & Regulations• Scottish Planning Policy (SPP)

updated for renewables• CBI project potential bottlenecks

due to high level of applications

Survey Monkey, 2016

• Coordinating construction in projects and infrastructure

• Managed by Electrical Networks Strategy Group (ENSG)

3. Secure Grid Access

BBC, 2015

4. Source Sustainable Fuel • Plentiful resources, but reliability

concerns• Renewable Obligation Certificates

(ROCs )

Survey Monkey, 2016

• Need for indigenous manufacturing to replace work done overseas

• 13-40,000 jobs potentially created in renewable energy sector

5. Skills

Survey Monkey, 2016

•Create sustainable distribution model

• Improve links to the rest of UK and Europe

6. Supply Chain/ Infrastructure

CultureChange,2016

• Important in cost reduction an efficiency improvements

•Storage technology

7. Innovation/ R & D

Siemens, 2014

• Increase awareness of the sector, allowing better decisions to be made•Reduce electrical demand

8. Public Engagement

Challenge SummaryCBI SR AS SP Strathclyde CEP

Cost of RenewablesPlanning Consents & Regulations - -Secure Grid Access - -Source Sustainable Fuel -Skills - -Supply Chain/ Infrastructure -Innovation/ R & D - - Public Engagement -Overall Feasibility

Concerned about Strategy Uncertain of Strategy Complimentary of Strategy

•Potential rise of £189p/a to meet target & halve carbon emissions

•Public support of strategy

Trade Off

Survey Monkey, 2016

•Public prioritise low energy costs and low environmental impact

Trade Off

Survey Monkey, 2016

Viability of Target

Survey Monkey, 2016

•Publish long term investment plan•Continue to increase installed capacity• Investment in storage•Create sustainable operation model

Recommendations

•Deployment levels for renewable projects too slow to reach 16GW target by 2020

•UK Government subsidy cuts reduced investment•Public support strategy, continue to strive towards global leadership in

sector

Conclusions

Questions?

• Audit Scotland. (2012). Renewable Energy Audit. [online] Available at: http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/docs/central/2013/nr_130912_renewable_energy.pdf [Accessed 30 Apr. 2016].

• BBC News, (2016). Controversial Beauly to Denny power line fully operational - BBC News. [online] Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35146301 [Accessed 2 Feb. 2016].

• Ey.com. (2016). EY - Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index - 2015 at a glance. [online] Available at: http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Power---Utilities/EY-renewable-energy-country-attractiveness-index-2015-at-a-glance [Accessed 30 Apr. 2016].

• Gov.scot, (2016). Energy in Scotland: Get the facts. [online] Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Facts [Accessed 30 Jan. 2016].• Gov.scot. (2016). Scottish Generation Scenarios and Power Flows. [online] Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2012/05/8985/3 [Accessed 30 Apr. 2016].• Scottish Renewables. (2016). Installed Capacity Projections. [online] Available at: https://www.scottishrenewables.com/media/filer_public/97/53/9753d54b-72ac-4867-

a474-• The CCC. (2016). Deployment Challenges. [online] Available at: https://documents.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Renewables.pdf [Accessed 30

Apr. 2016].• Culturechange.org. (2016). Where next for the renewable energy European Supergrid? [online] Available at: http://www.culturechange.org/cms/content/view/876/1/

[Accessed 12 May 2016].

References