AMBER/FFMP Overview COMET Basin Customization 02-03 06 August 2002 Robert S. Davis, Pittsburgh...

AMBER/FFMPAMBER/FFMPOverviewOverview

COMET Basin Customization 02-03

06 August 2002

Robert S. Davis, Pittsburgh NWSWFO

AWIPS Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)

• AWIPS build 5.1.2 (Early 2002) the AMBER implementation of FFMP using DHR.

• Requires NSSL CD of ArcView defined watersheds and WSR-88D bin assignments.

• Provides graphic display of ABR and ABR–FFG for time periods of 30,60,90,120,180,360 minutes.

• Provides line graph of ABR,ABR Rate, and FFG for the same time periods.

• 1 level of streams supported • FFMP small subset of AMBERGIS functionality.

FFMP Graphics

• County display of CWA-maximum ABR for any stream in county displayed. Left click on Fips code to get “stream display”.

• Stream display for a county- ABR for time period selected displayed for each basin. right click on stream ID to get “line graph”.

• Line graph of ABR + ABR Rate + FFG

Worthville, PA Flash Flood

05 June 2002

Jefferson County, PA

FFMP Text Data on AWIPS

/data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp

Where @@@ is your WSR-88D ID

FFMP file archiving

• ABR file is archived to hard disk on AWIPS for current GMT day and previous day only.

• /data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp/yyyymmdd + yyyymmdd.index for a GMT day

• Index file holds the time for each volume scan.• Date file holds the ABR data for each stream

(integer*2 data with a record length equal to 2 times the number of FFMP watersheds).

FFMP Basin Attributes

• /data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp/basinList.dat

• /basinToCounty.dat

• /binToBasin.dat

• Radar bins are numbered consecutively from 0 to 82799 starting with radial 0.5 degrees. Bin 0 = 0.5 degrees at 0.5 km, bin 230 = 1.5 degrees at 0.5km, etc.

basinList.dat

• First line in file is number of basins (5609)

• Basin ID number in FFMP display is position in this file basin id =0 (2nd line), 1 (3rd line), 2 (4th line), 3 (5th line), etc.

• Pfafstetter ID

• Latitude/longitude of basin centroid

• Name of creek

binToBasin.dat

• First line is number of basins

• Second line is data for watershed id=0

• 1st element (number of bins assigned)

• Bin number for each assigned bin follows, if 3 bins assigned to this stream, 3 bin numbers will be listed.

• Last element: area of bin summation (km2)

basinToCounty.dat

• Number of counties on first line

• Two letter state

• County name

• County Fips code

• Number of streams assigned to this county

• List of Basin Ids assigned to this county

• County assigned by MDL lat/lon of centroid

Stream Basin Stream Basin DefinitionsDefinitions

National Basin DelineationNational Basin Delineation

• 30Sep1999 – NWS agrees to fund the AMBER National Basin Delineation project by NSSL for all of the continental United States.

• ArcInfo used to define the watershed boundaries.• USGS 1 arc second (30 m) DEM data supplied by

EROS Data Center.• www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/western/basins• Continental U.S. completed June 2002.

229.5 kmRange ring

NSSL Basins 18,488Aggregated 12,784

Aggregate:Clip all basins beyond 230 kmEliminate all segments < 2 mi2

FFMP Basins5,608

NSSL CD

FFMP

Purpose of the Basin Customization Course

• To describe the content of the NSSL dataset (ArcView shapefiles and data attributes).

• To provide tools that allow the local forecast office to modify, correct, or enhance the NSSL set of defined basins.

• To demonstrate why modifications or additions may enhance the application of FFMP to the flash flood warning process.

Choices: Customization Options

• No Customization (used delivered cd)• Minor Customization (add stream names,

make minor adjustments to basins to correct errors) Must still run localization.

• Major Customization (add new streams, divided existing streams)

• Paul’s procedure for hydrologic connectivity, allows use of Paul’s tools.

Choices: Display options at WFO

• Display FFMP graphics as delivered• Run Paul Jendrowski’s AMBER for more

stream layers, 7 AWIPS radar graphic products including ABR rate + 6 user selected time periods, AMBER browser, and line graph of past 6 hours.

• Use ArcView as display for geographic information.

Areal Mean Basin Estimated Areal Mean Basin Estimated

Rainfall ( AMBER)Rainfall ( AMBER) 1990-2002 1990-2002• All watersheds in county warning area are defined

to a Minimum Basin Area (MBA) of 2 mi2 to show spatial rainfall distribution.

• The WSR-88D polar grid (1o by 1 km) is mapped to the defined watersheds.

• Average Basin Rainfall (ABR) is computed for each watershed every volume scan.

• An hourly ABR rate is determined from the single volume scan (5-6 min.) of ABR.

AMBERGIS (2000 – 2002)

• Paul Jendrowski creation using ArcView.• ABR data computed and archived (5 min).• AWIPS ABR Rate display of radar umbrella.• AWIPS ABR graphic display of radar umbrella

for 6 user selected time periods.• Line graph of ABR, ABR Rate, and FFG for each

defined stream and rain gage.• Nine layers of streams or rain gages supported.• Alert for 3 user selected levels of ABR - FFG.

Graphical Radar Graphical Radar RainfallRainfall

OHP – One hour rainfall

STP – Storm total rainfall

THP – Three hour rainfall

Storm TotalRainfall

19 May1999

Grid1o x 2km

AMBER/FFMP AMBER/FFMP Digital RainfallDigital Rainfall

AMBER/FFMP computes 5 minute rainfall using WSR-88D precipitation algorithm with Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR) product as input.

Digital Hybrid Scan Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR)Reflectivity (DHR)

• Time interval (5-6 minutes)

• Grid size (1 degree x 1 km)

• Reflectivity to the nearest 0.5 dBZ

DHR Grid Area (kmDHR Grid Area (km22) ) vs. Radar Range (km)vs. Radar Range (km)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 50 100 150 200

DHR Digital Rainfall Estimate

2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in)

.41

.38

.39 .37

.29 .14

.20

.30.16

.24

Grid size 1o x 1km

DHR Digital Rainfall Estimate

2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (mm)

.41

.38

.39 .37

.29 .14

.20

.30.16

.24

Watershed Boundary…compute ABR

Average Basin Rainfall = 0.29

2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)

.29

.29

.29 .29

.29 .29

.29

.29.29

.29

Copy ABR back into DHR gridfor FFMP or AMBERGIS graphics

Average Basin Rainfall = 0.29

2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)

.41

.38

.39 .37

.29 .14

.20

.30.16

.24

Divide watershed into segments??

Average Basin Rainfall = .29 in

2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)

.37

.37

.37 .25

.25 .25

.25

.37.20

.20

Large variation of ABR in short distances!!

Flash Flood Index (FF)FF = ABR - FFG

Determining the Flash Flood Threat

Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)

• ABR in a specific time period (1, 3 hours) to initiate flooding on streams.

• Assumes stream at low flow level.

• Assumes no rainfall since data cutoff

• FFG is the amount of ABR needed to produce threshold runoff (climatic average runoff needed to start flooding of streams)

Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)

• FFG = TR + SM, where TR is the threshold runoff and SM is the amount of ABR needed to initiate runoff based on soil moisture content.

• Threshold runoff is constant for all watersheds 1.00” in three hours for most of eastern U.S (0.75” for western PA + WV). Ask your servicing RFC for your TR!!!

FF Index = ABR - FFGFF Index = ABR - FFGABR and FFG in inchesABR and FFG in inches

• FF0 ABR = FFG

• FF1 ABR = FFG + 1.00 inches

• FF2 ABR = FFG + 2.00 inches

• FF3 ABR = FFG + 3.00 inches

• FF4 ABR = FFG + 4.00 inches

• FF5 ABR = FFG + 5.00 inches, etc

Noble County, OH Almost a flash flood.

ABR-FFG = 0.40

12 June 2002

2235-2327 UTC

1-Hour FFG = 1.70

FFMP Graphic Productsvs.

AMBERGIS Graphics

FFMPFFG

AMBER ABR-RateAMBER 90-min ABR

AMBER 120-min ABR

AMBER 60-min ABR

Change FFG Curve

Little Pine Creek Little Pine Creek Flash FloodFlash Flood

30 May 198630 May 1986ABR-FFG=5.0ABR-FFG=5.0

Pine CreekWatershed

68 mi2

ID Name Area1000 L Pine Cr 8.31001 L Pine Cr 6.21002 Gourdhead Run 4.11003 Crouse Run 3.71004 Willow Run 4.31005 Montour Run 5.51006 NF Pine Cr 10.1 1007 Headwaters 13.9

AlleghenyRiver

Pine CreekFlash Flood

Bucket Survey(inches)

30 May 1986

24681000

1001

1002

1003

10041005

1006

1007

Little Pine Creek Little Pine Creek 30 May 1986 Area: 6.2 mi 30 May 1986 Area: 6.2 mi22

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1900

1920

1940

2000

2020

2040

2100

2120

2140

2200

ABR(in)ABR Rate1hr FFG

Time (UTC)

Zion National ParkZion National ParkFlash FloodFlash Flood27 July 199827 July 1998

3.301:30

1:25

0.45

2.45

1:45

End of Trail

Start of Trail

Estimated hikingTime in hours.

Deep Creek

Kolob Creek

Goose Creek

Corral Hollow

Orderville Canyon

North ForkVirgin River

The Narrows Hiking Trail

Zion National Park,Utah

Adapted from NationalGeographic Trails

Illustrated

“The Narrows”No safe high ground

Hiking in the “Narrows”

WashingtonCounty

KaneCounty

IronCounty

OrdervilleCanyon

North Forkof the

Virgin River

Deep Creek

The Narrows

KolobCreek

EPA RF3 Data

Orderville CanyonMouth into the

Narrows

Deep Creek128.9 mi2

NF VirginRiver

70.3 mi2

Orderville Canyon41.5 mi2

KolobCreek

30.1 mi2

Goose Cr4.7 mi2

Corral Hollow2.2 mi2

Imlay Canyon3.8 mi2

NF Virgin Riverabove the Narrows285 mi2

The Narrows4.1 mi2

ABR (in) 2000-2200 UTC

27 July 1998

0.25

0.97

0.33

0

0

00

0

0.40

0 10km

KICX WSR-88D

1-hour FFG0.50

1022

1023

10241025

102610171018

1019

1020

1021

1008

1009

1011

10121015

1016

10141013

1010

1007

1005

1004

1006

1003

1002

1001

1000

KICX WSR-88D

0 10km

Deep Creek128.9 mi2

NF VirginRiver

70.3 mi2

Orderville Canyon41.5 mi2

KolobCreek

30.1 mi2

NF Virgin Riverabove the Narrows285 mi2

ABR (in) 2000-2200 UTC

27 July 1998

0

0.90

0.41

0.170.65

0.39

0.42

0.01

0.01

0.251.76

1.14

0.89

0.32

0

0

0.020.20

1.051-hour FFG

0.50

1004

Goose Creek

Corral Hollow

Imlay Canyon

North Fork ofthe Virgin River

OrdervilleCanyon

Deep Creek

KolobCreek

1001

1002

1003

10051006

1007

1008

1009

1010

1017

1011

1012

1013 1014

1015 1016

1018

1019

1020

1021

1022

1023

1024

1025

1026

17.0 17.9

14.3 16.9 19.5

12.9

15.8

10.1 10.1

5.6

4.4

6.5

6.5

11.2

18.0

19.9

22.1

3.8

2.01.7

5.2

5.9

10.0

13.5

1000

North Fork of the Virgin River

above the Narrows

xx.x = milesabove trail head

The Narrows

Deep Creek (5) #101427July1998 30.8 mi2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1950

1955

2000

2005

2011

2017

2023

2029

2035

2041

2046

2052

2058

2104

ABR RateABR

Maximum Bin 176o at 20 km27July1998

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

Maximum rainfall on Storm Total Product 3.14 in.

WashingtonCounty

Kane County

1000

10179.3 mi2

101818.4 mi2

101913.6 mi2

102015.1 mi2

102113.9 mi2

North Fork of theVirgin River

above the Narrows70.3 mi2

0.97

ABR (in)27 July 1998

2011-2133 UTC

0

0.251.76

1.14

0.89

0.32

1000 “The Narrows”1017-1021 NF

Virgin River (1-5)

3.14

NF Virgin River (2) #101827July1998 18.4 mi2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

WashingtonCounty, UT

Kane County, UT

1000 10171018

1019

1020

1021

50085009

50035004

5005 5006

5001

5002

5000

5012

5011

5010

5007

NF Virgin River Subdivisions5000-5002 Straight Canyon(1-3)5003-5005 NF Virgin River(2-4)5006 Willow Canyon5007 Hay Canyon5008 Simon Gulch5009 NF Virgin River(1)5010 Rosy Canyon5011 Stevens Canyon5012 Ashdown Canyon

0.711.24

0.56

1.441.88

1.921.81

0.91

0.09

0.54

0.49

0.32

0.22

ABR27 July 1998

2017-2133 UTC

3.14

NF Virgin River(2) #500327July1998 5.4 mi2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

NF Virgin River(3) #500427July1998 7.4 mi2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

NF Virgin River(4) #500527July1998 5.5mi2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

Willow Canyon #500627July1998 4.4 mi2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

Straight Canyon(2) #500127July1998 6.1mi2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

ABR RateABR

ABR Rates NF Virgin River27July1998

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2011

2023

2035

2046

2058

2110

2122

2133

2145

50015006500550045003

AMBER SummaryAMBER Summary• ABR provides basin specific rainfall to

determine flash flood risk (ABR-FFG)• ABR rate focuses forecaster attention on

critical streams before flooding occurs.• History (6-72 hours) of ABR helpful in

adjusting FFG for multiple rainfall events.• Basin specific ABR allows forecaster to

mention “threat area” in warning text.

AMBER Data SourcesAMBER Data Sources• ArcView and the spatial analyst extension.

www.esri.com

• USGS Data (3 arc second DEM data) edcwww.cr.usgs.gov

• EPA Data (RF3 data files) www.epa.gov/OST/BASINS/gisdata.html

AMBER Case StudiesAMBER Case Studieswww.nws.noaa.gov/er/pit/amberslides.htmwww.nws.noaa.gov/er/pit/amberslides.htm

• buff.ppt 13Jul96

• epgh99.ppt 18May99

• pitcairn.ppt 01Jul97

• zion.ppt 27Jul98

• ohio98.ppt 26Jun98

• redbank.ppt 19Jul96

• dallas95.ppt 05May95

• ftc97.ppt 28Jul97

• kc1998.ppt 05Oct98

• Buffalo Creek, CO

• Pittsburgh, PA

• Pittsburgh, PA

• Cedar City, UT

• Eastern Ohio

• Brookville, PA*

• Dallas, TX*

• Fort Collins, CO*

• Kansas City, MO* * Tropical Z/R Cases