Air Quality Modeling

Air Quality Modeling

ControlStrategies

ControlStrategies

EmissionsDistribution

EmissionsDistribution

Air QualityModel

Air QualityModel

Pollutant Distribution

Pollutant Distribution

MeteorologyMeteorology

AtmosphericChemistry

AtmosphericChemistry

Air Quality Impacts•health and welfare•secondary impacts•population exposure

Air Quality Impacts•health and welfare•secondary impacts•population exposure

Air Quality Goals•technical feasibility•economic issues•robustness

Air Quality Goals•technical feasibility•economic issues•robustness

Trends in Urban Asia Sulfur Pollution

Model Overview

RAINS-AsiaDeveloped by IIASA, Austria

SO2, PM, NOx

Energy, Emissions, Controls, Costs and Optimization modules

ATMOS Dispersion ModelSO2, PM, NOx

Lagrangian Puff TransportLinear Chemistry

NCEP Winds (1975-2000)

Model Overview

Regional Transport Model: STEM

Structure: Modular Modular (on-line and off-line mode)

Meteorology: RAMSRAMS - MM5MM5 - ECMWFECMWF - NCEP NCEP

EmissionsEmissions: Anthropogenic, biogenic and natural

Chemical mechanism: SAPRC’99 SAPRC’99 (Carter,2000)

93 Species, 225 reactions, explicit VOC treatment

Photolysis: NCAR-TUV 4.1 NCAR-TUV 4.1 (30 reactions)

Resolution: Flexible Flexible 80km x 80km for regional and 16km x 16km for urban

STEM

For Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent

Original Fire Count(FC) data(AVHRR)

“Fill-up” Zero Fire Counts using Moving

Average(MA)

“Fill-up” Zero Fire Count using TOMS AI

Satellite Coverage

Cloudiness

Mask Grid (Landcover)

Precipitation(NCEP)

“Extinguish” Fire Count using Mask Grids

Mask Grid (Never Fire)

Moving Averaged Fire Count data (Level 2)

AI Adjusted Fire Count data (Level 3)

5-day Fire Count

Regress. Coeff.(AI/FC)

Regional Emission Estimates:

Biomass Burning Emissions

Consequences of urban fossil fuel use:

Local to Global air pollution

Source: Climatology Division, meteorology department, Thailand

Airborne Particulate Pollution Airborne Particulate Pollution A A MegacityMegacity ProblemProblemBangkok Visibility IndexBangkok Visibility Index

Impact of Asian NOImpact of Asian NOxx

Emissions on Global Emissions on Global Air QualityAir Quality

% contribution by Asian NOx to total ozone concentrations (2 km)

Source: Yienger, et al., 2000

Urban Energy Demand Energy Production

Cities: A part of the Problem

Energy Demand and Pollution

Rising GHG levels

Waste Management

Urban transportation

Integrated Assessment

Emissions to End Points

Air Toxics

PM

Acid Rain

Visibility

Ozone

Mobile Mobile SourcesSources

Industrial Industrial SourcesSources

Area Area SourcesSources

(Cars, trucks, airplanes, boats, etc.)

(Power plants, factories, refineries/chemical plants, etc.)

(Homes, small business, farming equipment, etc.)

NOx, VOC,NOx, VOC,ToxicsToxics

NOx, VOC, NOx, VOC, SOx, ToxicsSOx, Toxics

NOx, VOC,NOx, VOC,ToxicsToxics

ChemistryMeteorology

Atmospheric Deposition

Regional Emission Estimates:

Anthropogenic Sources

Industrial and Power Sector Coal, Fuel Oil, NG

SO2, NOx, VOC, and Toxics

Domestic SectorCoal, Biofuels, NG/LPG

SO2, CO, and VOC

Transportation SectorGasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG

NOx, and VOC

Regional Emission Estimates:

Natural Sources

Biomass Burning In-field and Out-field combustion

CO, NOx, VOC, and SPM

VolcanoesSO2, and SPM

Dust OutbreaksSPM

PP0%

BB24%

IND16%

TRAN26%

DOM34%

IND7%

PP22%

BB29%

TRAN4%

DOM38%

IND18%

DOM8%

TRAN44%

PP19%

BB11%

IND37%

DOM12%

TRAN4%

PP46%

BB1%

Regional Emission Estimates:

Sectoral Contributions

COCONONOxx

SOSO22

VOCVOC

SO2 = 34.8 TgNOx = 25.6 Tg

CO = 244.8 TgVOC = 52.7 Tg

Annual Asian Emissions for Year 2000

PP = Power SectorBB = Biomass BurningIND = IndustriesTRAN = transportDOM = Domestic

Regional Emission Estimates:

% by Economic Sector : SO2 Emissions

IndustrialIndustrialDomesticDomestic

TransportTransport Power Power

Regional Emission Estimates:

% by Economic Sector : NOx Emissions

IndustrialIndustrialDomesticDomestic

TransportTransport Power Power

For Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent

Original Fire Count(FC) data(AVHRR)

“Fill-up” Zero Fire Counts using Moving

Average(MA)

“Fill-up” Zero Fire Count using TOMS AI

Satellite Coverage

Cloudiness

Mask Grid (Landcover)

Precipitation(NCEP)

“Extinguish” Fire Count using Mask Grids

Mask Grid (Never Fire)

Moving Averaged Fire Count data (Level 2)

AI Adjusted Fire Count data (Level 3)

5-day Fire Count

Regress. Coeff.(AI/FC)

Regional Emission Estimates:

Biomass Burning Emissions

Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry

Regional Impact Analysis: STEM Structure: Modular Modular (on-line and off-line mode)

Meteorology: RAMSRAMS - MM5MM5 - ECMWFECMWF - NCEP NCEP

EmissionsEmissions: Anthropogenic, biogenic and natural

Chemical mechanism: SAPRC’99 SAPRC’99 (Carter,2000)

93 Species, 225 reactions, explicit VOC treatment

Photolysis: NCAR-TUV 4.1 NCAR-TUV 4.1 (30 reactions)

Resolution: Flexible Flexible 80km x 80km for regional and 16km x 16km for urban

Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry

Regional Impact Analysis: STEM

Y. Tang (CGRER), 2002

Characterization of Urban Signals

http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/acess_indhttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/acess_index.htmex.htm

Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry

Regional Impact Analysis: STEM-TUV

Y. Tang (CGRER), 2002

Urban Photochemistry

OH Radical Cycle

Air ToxicsAir Toxics

OzoneOzone

Acid RainAcid Rain

VisibilityVisibility

PM2.5PM2.5

Water Water QualityQuality

..OHOHNOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3

SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3]

SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4NO2 + OH ---> HNO3

VOC + OH --->Orgainic PM

OH <---> Air Toxics (POPs, Hg(II), etc.)

Fine PM(Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)

NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification,

Eutrophication)

Urban Photochemistry

NOx to VOC Emission Ratio

City Emission Ratio Dhaka 0.2 New Delhi 0.4 Calcutta 0.3 Bombay 0.4 Kanto 0.7 Beijing 0.5

Shanghai 0.6 Chongqing 0.4 Hong Kong 0.8 Seoul-Inchon 1.4 Karachi 0.6 Manila 0.2 Singapore 1.4 Bangkok 0.2

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle

32

2

22

22

2

3

)400(3

OOPO

nmPONOhvNO

NORONORO

ROOR

OHROHRH

Organic radical production and photolysis of NO2

VOC’s and N-species compete for OH radical

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle

32

2

22

22

2

3

)400(3

OOPO

nmPONOhvNO

NOHONOHO

HOOH

COHOHCO

In polluted environment, CO contributes to O3 production

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle

OHHOCOOOHHCHO

HCOhvHCHO

HOCOOhvHCHO

ROHCHOOHHC

NOOHHOHCHOOOHNOCH

222

2

22

242

22224

%)55(

%)45(2

2

HCHO – primary intermediate in VOC-HOx chemistry

Short lived and indicator of primary VOC emissions

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle

Organic radical production and photolysis of NO2

VOC’s and N-species compete for OH radical

In polluted environment, CO contributes to O3 production

HCHO – primary intermediate in VOC-HOx chemistry

Short lived and indicator of primary VOC emissions

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle

O3 CycleSTEM Box Model Calculations

For City of Seoul,

O3 CycleSTEM Box Model Calculations

For City of Shanghai

Units: ppbv/hr

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle

O3 CycleSTEM Box Model CalculationsDownwind Site from Shanghai

O3 CycleSTEM Box Model Calculations

Downwind Site from Dhaka

Units: ppbv/hr

CO Vs VOC: Megacity points from back trajectoriesCO Vs VOC: Megacity points from back trajectories

CO produced due to photolysis of HCHO, a short lived intermediate from reactions between VOC and HOx

High O3 and CO concentrations are linked with high VOC concentrations, especially with urban plume age < 1.0 day

Urban Photochemistry

Species to Species Comparison

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC Sensitivity Implications

Ozone production in the urban plumes is VOC VOC limitedlimited

Decrease in NOx may actually increase local O3 production

Though at present, NOx is contributing less to local O3 mixing ratios, it is contributing to local NO2 mixing ratios (health criteria pollutantcriteria pollutant) and to O3 production at downwind sites.

Urban Photochemistry

NOx-VOC Sensitivity to O3 Production

VOC sensitive

NOx sensitive

Loss(N

)/(L

oss(N

)+Loss(R

))

Model NOx (ppbv)

Model results along the flight path

Megacity points from back trajectories

Klienman et al., 2000Klienman et al., 2000

Less than 2 day old plumes

EmissionsEmissions

Ambient Ambient ConcentrationConcentration

ExposureExposure

Air Quality Air Quality ManagemeManagement Systemnt System

Policy Policy IssuesIssues

Technical Technical OptionsOptions

Environmental Integrated Assessment

Shanghai Province

Shanghai

3030oo36’36’120120oo36’36’

3232oo

122122oo

East China Sea

Emissions for 1995Emissions for 1995

PMPM1010 : 166 ktons PM/year : 166 ktons PM/year

PMPM2.52.5 : 68 ktons PM/year : 68 ktons PM/year

Sulfur: 458 ktons SOSulfur: 458 ktons SO22/year/year

Population: 19 MillionPopulation: 19 Million

Source: Li and Guttikunda et al., 2002

Environmental Integrated Assessment

Case Study of Shanghai, China

202

0

202

0

BA

UB

AU

Units:Gg/year

Economic SectorEconomic Sector PMPM1010

(C )(C )PMPM1010

(M)(M)PMPM2.52.5

( C)( C)PMPM2.52.5

(M)(M)SOSO22 NONOxx

Power 11.2 5.1 394.3 112.7

Industry 52.1 18.6 19.6 5.3 214.2 73.2

Domestic 5.2 3.6 16.8 5.4

Transport 31.1 16.7 32.0 276.6

Other 0.0 36.4 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0

Total 99.699.6 55.055.0 45.045.0 14.614.6 657.2657.2 468.0468.0

Economic SectorEconomic Sector PMPM1010

(C )(C )PMPM1010

(M)(M)PMPM2.52.5

( C)( C)PMPM2.52.5

(M)(M)SOSO22 NONOxx

Power 40.6 18.1 214.1 80.4

Industry 49.2 31.5 18.3 9.0 199.9 71.1

Domestic 10.4 6.8 31.9 5.9

Transport 10.1 6.0 11.6 125.8

Other 7.0 18.0 5.9 4.6 1.0 2.5

Total 117.2117.2 49.549.5 55.155.1 13.713.7 458.4458.4 285.8285.8

199

51

995

Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management

Emission Estimates

in 1995in 1995 2020 BAU2020 BAU

120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32

5102030405060708090100110120

Units: g/m3 PM10

120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32

Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management

Annual Average PM10 Concentrations

Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management

Health Benefit Analysis

POPAPE iijjij ***

Dose-response function coefficientsDose-response function coefficients

Health Endpoint Coefficient Source

Mortality 0.84 Lvovsky et al., 2000

Hospital Visit 0.18 Xu et al., 1995

Emergency Room Visit

0.10 Xu et al., 1995

Hospital Admission

0.80 Dockery and Pope, 1994

Chronic Bronchitis

0.10 Xu and Wang, 1993Coefficient: % change in endpoint per 10 g/m3 change in annual PM10 levels

Incidence rate: rate of occurrence of an endpoint among the population

Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management

Health Benefit Analysis

No. of cases avoidedNo. of cases avoided

Health EndpointHealth Endpoint Power Scenario Power Scenario

(no. of cases)(no. of cases)

Industrial ScenarioIndustrial Scenario

(no. of cases)(no. of cases)

Mortality 2,808 1,790

Hospital Visit 96,293 61,379

Emergency Room Visit

48,506 30,918

Hospital Admission

43,482 27,716

Chronic Bronchitis

1,753 1,117

Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management

Health Benefit Analysis

Units: US$ millions in

1998 dollars Economic EvaluationEconomic Evaluation

Health BenefitsHealth Benefits Power ScenarioPower Scenario Industrial ScenarioIndustrial Scenario

Mortality

Low 139 88

Medium 347 221

High 1,030 656

Morbidity

Low 38 24

Medium 57 36

High 119 76

Work Day Lossess 13 8

Total Benefits 190 – 1,162 121 – 741

(Median Case) (417) (266)

Emissions Emissions & &

CostsCosts

Emissions Emissions & &

CostsCostsDispersion Dispersion ModelingModeling

Dispersion Dispersion ModelingModeling

Depositions Depositions & &

ConcentrationsConcentrations

Depositions Depositions & &

ConcentrationsConcentrations

EnergyEnergyTechnologyTechnology

FuelFuelSectorsSectorsScalesScales

EnergyEnergyTechnologyTechnology

FuelFuelSectorsSectorsScalesScales

ExposureExposure&&

ImpactsImpacts

ExposureExposure&&

ImpactsImpacts

Days & WeeksDays & Weeks

Source ReceptorSource ReceptorMatrixMatrix

SecondsSeconds

Integrated Assessment Modeling System (IAMSIAMS)

Central Heating Plants

Central Heating Plants

Transfer Matrix for

Area Sources

Transfer Matrix for

Area Sources

Domestic Sources

Domestic Sources

IndustrialBoilers

IndustrialBoilers

Transportation Sources Large Point

Sources

Large Point Sources

Emission Sources (PM and SO2)

Transfer Matrix for

LPS Sources

Transfer Matrix for

LPS Sources

PM and Sulfur Concentrations

PM and Sulfur Concentrations

IAMS Model Schematics

Atmospheric Dispersion Calculations

IAMS Software

Tracks Concentration

Changes.

Tracks Emission

Changes.

IAMS Software

Tracks Health Benefits to

Costs Ratio.

Calculates Health Damages for Mortality, Chronic Bronchitis,

Hospital Visits, Work Day Losses.