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Adapting to Climate Challenges
Putting Ideas into Action
Connie MillarSenior Scientist
USDA Forest ServicePacific Southwest Research Station
Albany, California USAcmillar@fs.fed.us
Confronting Climate Change
I. Adaptation Assist resources & ecosystems accommodate to changes imposed by climate
II. Mitigation Reduce human effects on climate system by sequestering CO2 & decreasing greenhouse gas emissions
Complementary… and sometimes conflicting
Ecosystems of the FutureEmbracing Change & Uncertainty
• Basic principles of ecosystem management remain valid
• Modify current practices with new information
• Some traditional practices might be inappropriate – i.e., where future is assumed to be similar to the past
• Manage for processes & ecosystem services
ADAPTATION PRINCIPLESToolbox Approach
♦ No single solution fits all situations
♦ Mix & match tools
♦ Options differ for short- versus long-term
♦ Nimbleness matters: Be flexible, experimental, and innovative
♦ Take small risks, be willing to learn & changecourse in midstream
♦ Prioritize often
Climate Adaptation Tools“Resource-management practices, educational and reference modules, decision-support aids, and qualitative or quantitative models that address the adaptation of natural and cultural resources to climate change” Peterson et al. in press
NPSNPS NPS
An Adaptation FrameworkMoving from Concept to Prescription
Swanston & Janowiak in review
Adaptation Options* Promote Resistance
* Increase Resilience
* Enable Ecosystems to Respond
*Realign Altered EcosystemsMillar et al. 2007
OPTION 1: Promote Resistance to Change
* Defend highest-value resources against change
Pika habitat
British Columbia: Lodgepole pine & mountain pine beetle Carroll et al. 2003
BC Ministry of Forests
“Homeland Security Option”
Strategy: Resist movement of beetles into new host species
Tactic: Aggressive beetle control at ecotone of jack and lodgepole pines
Tactic: Aggressive fuel breaksTactic: Heavily armored stream crossings & oversized culverts
O’Halloran
Strategy: Prevent catastrophic fires from entering critical areas
Strategy: Defend critical watersheds against extreme storm events
RES
ISTA
NC
E
Strategy: Maintain species in climatically favorable niches within current native range Tactic: Establish climate refugia
Climate buffered (riparian)
Substrate (carbonate) Persistent conditions (RIF wetlands)
High biodiversity Steep elevational gradients
Ochotona princeps
Refugia: Locations where species persist during periods of changing
regional climates
RES
ISTA
NC
E
Resisting the effects of climate change might be possible only in the short term
Resist projects that might fail or beinappropriate under future climates
*Adaptation strategy*
Pinyon/juniper expansion
Meadow invasion
Salmon restoration
Be Aware of “Paddling Upstream” Decisions
RES
ISTA
NC
E
OPTION 2: Increase Resilience
* Improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to prior conditions after disturbance
“Health-Care Option”
Strategy: Minimize stress, provide buffers and emergency back-ups
Tactics:- Thin Forest Stands- Stock Seed Banks- Prescribe Fires- Make Snow at Ski Areas
Strategy: Work with disturbance to achieve forest health goals and promote genetic adaptedness
Tactic: Implement rehabilitation after fire so as to increase structural diversity and alter species mixes
Tactic: Manage for genetic adaptation after beetle-related mortality
RES
ILIE
NC
E
Strategy: Improve the capacity of a system or species to absorb external challenges without change in state
Wehausen
Approach: Maintain forest not shrubland Tactic: Prescribe fires
Approach: Enable species to persist not extirpate Tactic: Supplement winter food:
Approach: Maintain meadow not forestTactic: Vacate grazing allotmentsR
ESIL
IEN
CE
* Assist transitions to new ecological conditions or locations
Ecological conversions are occurring already
Forest to GrasslandColorado plateau, Pinus edulisDrought & bark beetles
Grass- and Shrubland to ForestGreat Basin, Pinus monophyllaWarming & fire suppression
C. Allen
OPTION 3: Enable Ecosystems to Respond Adaptively“Beginner’s Mind Option”
Allen
PacificSouthwest
Additional TestArea
Ron Neilson, USFS, PNW
Strategy: Use downscaled climate- and ecological-response models to project future forest trajectories
Tactic: Following fire, plant with novel mix of species anticipating what the future environment might support
Beware of putting all your eggs in one basket
RES
PON
D
McGlinchy & Neilson2010
Strategy: Promote genotypes that will be adapted to conditions of future environments
Tactic 2: Select broad genotypic mixes for uncertain future
Tactic 1: Select specific genotypes for explicit climatic conditions
reforestation
ecological restoration
RES
PON
D
reintroductionCalifornia Seed Zones
Spreading risks is a smart approach
Strategy: Move plants or animals outside their current native range to anticipated favorable future habitats
But, Do We Know Enough?
Picea breweriana
native
new“The models show little chance that the climate anywhere in western US will be suitable for Brewer spruce by 2060. However, all GCMs show suitable climatic niche in SE Alaska and coastal British Columbia. My Canadian colleagues are planning for genetic resource planting sites near Prince Rupert, British Columbia.”
-- USFS Research Geneticist, Nov 2008
Tactic: Establish ex-situ populations of Brewer Spruce 1500 km north of current native range
Do we know enough to do it?
Assisted Migration
RES
PON
D
Tactic: Establish “neo-native” populations at paleo-historic locations of similar climatic regime
Quaternary (red) and Extant (yellow) Populations
Millar 1999Pinus radiata
Strategy: Conduct routine work as experiments to learn about ecological responses
Tactic: Use redundancy in reforestation
low
high
range margin
Strategy: Increase Diversity
Tactic: Increase forest structural diversity
Tactic: Expand from winter- to 4-season resort
RES
PON
D
Strategy: Promote connected landscapes so that species can move at will to favorable habitat
Tactics: - Increase management-unit size- Lower fragmentation- Maintain robust riparian zones - Empower decision flexibility
RES
PON
D
Water diversions began to Los Angeles
Mono Lake Basin, California
“Historic range of variability” (pre-disturbance conditions) as a management target will often be inappropriate
NAS 1987
OPTION 4: Realign altered ecosystems tocurrent and future dynamics
“Auto Mechanic’s Option” Strategy: Use info about future conditions as target for restoration
Tactic: Base target for Mono Lake level on pro-jections of increased drought and lower run-off
Strategy: Re-establish self-sustaining herds of endangered Sierra Nevada Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae)
Tactics:- Augment species above
replacement rate (λ >1.0)- Establish multiple herds across
diverse locations- Control lions in herd areas- Remove domestic sheep from
zones around herds
Climate change affects:- Winter range quality & size- Migration dynamics- Disease transmission- Predator dynamics
Habitat Suitability Model
REA
LIG
N
Adaptation Options* Promote Resistance
* Increase Resilience
* Enable Ecosystems to Respond
*Realign Altered Ecosystems
How to Proceed? A Few Basic StepsStep 1: Assess Vulnerabilities
Scale Matters*1. Spatial
- Ecoregion (Multi-forest; mountain range)- Forest
- Watershed- Project
2. Temporal- Long Term (> 10 yrs)
- Short Term (2-10 yrs)- Current Year
* Disaster planning crosses scales
Broad Scope Vulnerability Assessments(large area, long time)
1. Project Future Climates (downscaled to your region)
2. Project Future Ecosystem Responses (regional)-- Develop scenarios (ecologic, hydrologic, social)-- Forecast changes in societal use & demands
3. Evaluate Resources for Sensitivity to Climatic Change-- Plants, animals, habitat (land & water)-- Streamflow, springs, lakes, wetlands-- Recreation, rural communities, economic capacity
Many guides are available on Vulnerability Analysis
Watershed Scale Vulnerability Assessments(watershed, mid time-frame)
Umatilla NF Oregon
Peterson et al. in press
Aspen Health Survey
Project Scale(small area and/or near-future)
Morelli and Carr in press
Use: Climate Project Screening Tool
Project Scale: Evaluating Current Year Projectse.g., USFS “Schedule of Proposed Actions”
Morelli et al. in press
Disaster Preparedness: More than Scenario PlanningWhat is the worst climate-related disaster you can imagine?
2. Pinus longaevaWhite pine blister rust infests Methuselah stand
Remove all affected branches and Ribes shrubs
Collect seed/tissue and propagate ex situ
1. Sierra Bighorn SheepPneumonia transmitted from domestic sheep
3. American Pika(Ochotona princeps) Nevada populations collapse as result of climate effects
Introduce pika to vacant Snake Range
Remove sick bighorn sheep
Step 2: Set Priorities
1.Short Term (<10 yrs)Project Scale:
Do No HarmReconsider Goals & TargetsModify Existing Practices
2.Longer Term (>10 yrs) Planning Scale:
Anticipate SurprisesEase Transitions
Astragalus monoensis exclosure
Triage Approach to Priority-Setting
TRIAGE Categories:Red Urgent, treatable:
immediate priority
Yellow Mid urgency; soon to become red
Green Stable, low priority
Black Urgent, untreatable with available resources: no action
*************************Re-assess & re-sort
triare (Fr): to sort
Short term; needs exceed capacity
Tiered Approaches to Priority SettingLandscape Scale, Longer Term
“Win-Win” - Actions that reduce the impacts of climate change while providing other benefits
“No Regrets” - Actions that provide important benefits at relatively little additional cost or risk
“Piggyback” – Priorities determined by other projects
Step 3: Select Option, Develop Strategies, & Formulate Tactics
Swanston & Janowiakin review
Step 4: Monitor and AdjustPolicy implemented as an experiment
Simple is ok, but always implement so you can learn and adjust
Adaptive management essential under changing conditions
Sierra Nevada Bighorn Sheep Recovery
Cycle III Add:- Remove lions known to kill sheep-Result: Not adequate to meet goals
Cycle IV Add?:- Remove all lions from herd vicinity
CDFG
CDFG
Tactics: Cycle I- Augment extant herds and translocate
to historic & new locations- Vacate domestic sheep allotmentsResult: Not adequate to meet goals
Cycle II Add:- Aversively condition lions-Result: Not adequate to meet goals
Step 1: Assess Vulnerabilities
Step 2: Set Priorities
Step 3: Select Option, Strategies, and Tactics* Promote Resistance…* Increase Resilience...* Enable Ecosystems to Respond…*Realign Altered Ecosystems…
Step 4: Monitor and Adjust
SUMMARY ADAPTATION APPROACH
Swanston, C.W. and M.K. Janowiak (eds) In review. Forest adaptation resources: Climate change tools and approaches for land managers. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science.
Peterson, D.L., Millar, C.I., Joyce, L.A., Furniss, M.J. et al. In press. Responding to climate change on national forests: A guidebook for developing adaptation options. USDA Forest Service, General Technical Report. PNW.
Resources:
US Forest Service 2010 “National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change”
Modes of Action:
Dimensions of Activity; Performance Scorecard
USFS Climate Change Resource Center
www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/
Web Tools for Forest Managers
Climate Change Online Short CourseProduced by the WestWide Climate Initiative
Available on Climate Change Resource Center website
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