A Swiss knife quality tool to measure the impact of ... · HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16 Sylvain...

Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research EAER

Federal Office for Agriculture FOAG

A Swiss knife quality tool to measure the impact of genetically modified crops

Dr. Sylvain AubryFederal Office for Agriculture. Switzerland

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Swiss agriculture in a nutshell

Seed catalogues are linked between EU and CH (except for GMO)

Average farm size: 18 ha

1/3 of the farms are in the mountains

12% farms are organic, 80% IPCross compliance system of subsidies

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

GM crops in Switzerland: to make a long story short

1998

2003

2010

2012

2017+

1st referendum: 67% NO to GM prohibition

2nd referendum: 56% YES to GM moratorium

1st renewal of the moratorium

2nd renewal of the moratorium + National Research Program (NRP59)

3rd renewal of the moratorium ?

Mandate from the Parliament to evaluate GM crops in Swiss agroecosystems

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Our mandate: generating a model to evaluate sustainability of GM crops

To inform the political debate, we were ask to generate a model allowing to:

«Evaluate the potential sustainability of GM crops on Swissagroecosystems.»

The Federal Council already proposed four additional years extension+ proposed to create legal frame for coexistence to anticipate «after»

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Four species relevant to the Swiss agriculture (conventional vs. GM)

Bt maize

Herbicide resistant beetroot

Fungal and bacterial resistant apple

Fungal resistant potato

Commercialised In development

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Method: the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA)

The DEXi (Decision EXpert) methodology allows- Practicle decision making- Based on mixtures of quantitative and qualitative data- Handling uncertainties and rules

Bohanec et al., 2013 Informatica 37:49-54

Similar approaches already applied for similar issues:- Assessing innovative cropping systems (Pelzer et al., 2013)- Assessment of crop protection systems (Mouron et al., 2012)

ALL steps were performed according to stakeholders and experts

DEXi

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Study of socio-economical and environmental sustainability

Stakeholders category Examples

Farmers Agridea, AGORA, apisuisse, Bioterra, Bio Suisse, FSB, IP-Suisse, USP, USPF, COJA, Prometerre, Sativa Rheinau, Swisspatat, Bioforum Suisse, FSV…

Consumers SKS, FRC…

Retailers Coop, Migros…

Industries Fenaco, Fial, FSPC, proviande, Swisssem…Syngenta, KWS, Monsanto, Pioneer, Bayer…

Research Agroscope, ETH’s, High schools, Universities, SCNAT…

Political bodies PEV, PLR, PS, PDC, UDC, Verts, VL, … City, canton, Federal authorities…

Civil society Greenpeace, Pro Natura, StopOGM, SAG, Public Eye (ex-E.v. Bern), Pro Specie Rara, Swissaid…

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Design of the model. Step 1. Attributes list and tree design

Study of socio-economical and environmental sustainability

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Design of the model. Step 2. Weighing of attributes

Study of socio-economical and environmental sustainability

Weighing of the attributes according to literature (when possible)

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Design of the model. Step 3. Definition of scales

Study of socio-economical and environmental sustainability

HigherSimilar sustainabilityLower

Every of the six dimensions of the sustainability was compared for convetional and GM culture:

Consumer

Agribusiness

Farmer Environmentquality

Biodiversity

Resourcesuse

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Design of the model. Step 3. Attributes list

Study of socio-economical and environmental sustainability

227 publications compiled15 expert’s round-tables

Swiss DEXi modelOutput

(radar plot)

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Bt maize vs. conventional maize

Results

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Scab & late blight resistantpotato vs. conventional potato

Fire blight apple treevs. conventional apple tree

Results

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Strengths and limits of the MCDA method

- Plasticity of the model

- Data are often missing (ex ante!)

- Weak representation of time-related evolution of the systems

- Comparison with organic systems were not performed

- Can be a tool to evaluate hypothetical scenarios («what if…»)

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

Conclusions

- MCDA using DEXi is one of the many tools used to «feed» the political process

- This study aim to start a discussion between various stakeholders(not «manufacturing» opinion)

- The way the model has been developed was transparent and can be adapted by other stakeholders

In this model, we showed 6/7 scenarios with lower socio-economic sustainabilityand slight benefits in resources usage.

GM crops that have been tested are not adapted to Swiss agrosystems

HCB meeting. Paris 06/10/16

Sylvain Aubry. FOAG

This work has been published recently as a report of the Swiss Federal Counciland as a peer-reviewed article in Agronomy for Sustainable Development(Wohlfender-Bühler et al., 2016, 36: 33)

Thanks!