A. R. Ingraffea Dwight C. Baum Professor Emeritus Cornell University and PSE Healthy Energy, Inc....

A. R. IngraffeaDwight C. Baum Professor EmeritusCornell UniversityandPSE Healthy Energy, Inc.

Enniskillen, Northern IrelandFebruary 20, 2015

1

Shale: What Can Northern Ireland Learn from New York and Pennsylvania?

Takeaway Messages

• Clarify your objective• Obtain, study, disseminate the latest science• Chronicle and quantify impacts• Assess the resources potential• Use your allies• Demand open access to information and data

from your regulatory authority

2

Clarify Your Objective• It should not be to “Ban Fracking” in Northern Ireland: Please,

allow me to explain!• It might be difficult for you to do today: Allow me to tell you

stories from New York• Please recognize that you might decide on a global objective,

but many “sub-issues” will be identified. How you deal with them and their proponents will make for interesting group dynamics!

3

Why Our Movement Has the Wrong Name

4

• This is all about extraction of hydrocarbons from SHALE.

• All extraction methods from shale are inherently inefficient, and require spatially and temporally intense, large-scale development with significant ancillary infrastructure.

• Fracking is only one of many necessary elements of development.

• All elements bear much higher risk of impacts to human health, local environment, and climate change.

Bradford County, PA, April, 2013

5

6

7

Courtesy Bob Donnan

Compressor Stations In PA

Photos Courtesy of Bob Donnan

Early Design: 2010

Super-Station : 2013

8

Obtain, Study, Disseminate Latest Science

• PSE STUDY CITATION DATABASE on Shale Gas & Tight Oil Development http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/site/view/1180#sthash.AeCRpj5W.dpuf

• Toward an understanding of the environmental and public health impacts of shale gas development: an analysis of the peer reviewed scientific literature, 2009-2014 http://psehealthyenergy.org/site/view/1233#sthash.bsdchK5y.dpuf

• A Public Health Review of High Volume Hydraulic Fracturing for Shale Gas Developmenthttp://www.health.ny.gov/press/reports/docs/high_volume_hydraulic_fracturing.pdf

9

The Science Is Late but Growing Rapidly

10

11

The Science Compelling and NOT Inconclusive

Chronicle and Quantify Impacts

• COMPENDIUM OF SCIENTIFIC, MEDICAL, AND MEDIA FINDINGS DEMONSTRATING RISKS AND HARMS OF FRACKING (UNCONVENTIONAL GAS AND OIL EXTRACTION)http://concernedhealthny.org/wpcontent/uploads/2014/07/CHPNY-Fracking-Compendium.pdf

• Earthworks Oil and Gas Library http://www.earthworksaction.org/library

12

Example From Earthworks

13

http://www.earthworksaction.org/files/publications/BlackoutReportFINAL.pdf

Example from New York

14

Assess the Shale Resource Potential

• Two, independent studies done in New York State: both conclude actual resource much less than industry/state predictions

• Jerry Acton:

http://www.nofrackingway.us/2013/11/04/new-york-shale-gas-potential-jerry-actons-model/

• Arthur Berman: http://www.nofrackingway.us/2014/04/21/new-york-shale-gets-another-major-downgrade/

• National-scale studies also now available. Suggest you employ David Hughes of PCI/PSE to help you: http://www.postcarbon.org/drilling-deeper/

15

Use Your Allies

• Earthworks: http://www.earthworksaction.org/

• Earthjustice: http://earthjustice.org/

• PSE Healthy Energy: http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/

• Celebrities: They are free megaphones! How many twitter followers do you have?

16

Demand Open Access to Information and Data from Your Regulatory Authority

17

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/oil_and_gas_reports/20297

http://www.depreportingservices.state.pa.us/ReportServer/Pages/ReportViewer.aspx?/Oil_Gas/OG_Compliance

http://www.depreportingservices.state.pa.us/ReportServer/Pages/ReportViewer.aspx?/Oil_Gas/Operator_Permitted_Well_Inventory

It took 5 years to get Pennsylvania to this online entry point for oil/gas activities:

To this spreadsheet inventory of all wells:

And to this spreadsheet inventory of all violation/compliance data:

18

The following list identifies cases where DEP determined that a private water supply was impacted by oil and gas activities. The oil and gas activities referenced in the list below include operations associated with both conventional and unconventional drilling activities that either resulted in a water diminution event or an increase in constituents above background conditions. This list is intended to identify historic water supply impacts and does not necessarily represent ongoing impacts

It took a court order to get this

Demand Open Access to Information and Data from Your Regulatory Authority

19

“Auditor General DePasquale Says Rapid Shale Gas Development Outpaced DEP’s Ability to Oversee Industry, Protect Water Quality.”

DEP unprepared in 2009; now understaffed, underfunded and inconsistent”

• DEP uses a 25-year-old policy on the frequency of inspections, which has a “loop hole,” that only requires DEP to conduct inspections as it has the financial and human resources to do so.

• Auditors also found that DEP does not post to its website all statutorily required inspection information. When the data was tested for accuracy, the auditors found errors of more than 25 percent in key data fields, and that as many as 76 percent of inspectors’ comments were omitted from the online inspection reporting.

• “Until DEP updates its out-of-date inspection policies, to include mandated inspections at specific critical drilling stages and during the life of the well, it will be nearly impossible to measure DEP’s performance in conducting this very basic responsibility to protect the environment.”

http://www.auditorgen.state.pa.us/Department/Press/DEPShaleGas.html, accessed 7/22/14

The PA DEP’s Spin on the Auditor General’s Report

20

“Auditor General Performance Report Validates DEP’s Work Regarding Unconventional Gas Drilling Activities

DEP has already implemented many of the AG’s recommendations

HARRISBURG -- The Auditor General’s Office today released the Special Audit of DEP’s Performance in Monitoring Potential Impact to Water Quality from Shale Gas Development for the period 2009 through 2012, finding no instances where DEP failed to protect public health, safety or the environment with respect to unconventional gas drilling activities.”

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/newsroom/14287?id=20580&typeid=1

Takeaway Messages

• Clarify your objective• Obtain, study, disseminate the latest science• Chronicle and quantify impacts• Assess the resources potential• Use your allies• Demand open access to information and data from your regulatory authority

21

Thank You for the Honor of Being with You Today

22

23