A proposed energy conversion process for making solar...

1MITEISep2016

A proposed energy conversion process for making solar energy a major player in global

power generation

Jacob Karni

The Weizmann Institute of ScienceRehovot, Israel

2MITEISep2016

General Objective of Renewable Power Generation and Fuel Production

Have an energy conversion method, which can gradually replace fossil fuel combustion on a worldwide scale,

3MITEISep2016

General Objective of Renewable Power Generation and Fuel Production

Have an energy conversion method, which can gradually replace fossil fuel combustion on a worldwide scale, eventually leading to a renewable-dominant global energy supply.

4MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

5MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

6MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

7MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

8MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

9MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

10MITEISep2016

Levelized Energy Cost

11MITEISep2016

• The LEC defines the breakeven cost of thesystem.

• It is the basic cost/performance parameter ofpower generation systems

The acronym LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) is often used instead of LEC

The Levelized Energy Cost

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The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Annual fuel costs

Net annual electricity production

LEC =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M + C fuel

Eelec,yr

Cinvest

CO&M

C fuel

Eelec,yr

fcr =kd 1+ kd( )N

1+ kd( )N −1+ kinsurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate

(or Annuity Factor) Real debt interest rate

Depreciation period in years (system design life)

Annual insurance cost rate

kd

kinsuranceN

13MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Annual fuel costs

Net annual electricity production

LEC =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M + C fuel

Eelec,yr

Cinvest

CO&M

C fuel

Eelec,yr

fcr =kd 1+ kd( )N

1+ kd( )N −1+ kinsurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate

(or Annuity Factor) Real debt interest rate

Depreciation period in years (system design life)

Annual insurance cost rate

kd

kinsuranceN

HereweareonlyinterestedinthesolarLEC

14MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Annual fuel costs

Net annual electricity production

LEC = fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

Eelec,yr

Cinvest

CO&M

Eelec,yr

fcr =kd 1+ kd( )N

1+ kd( )N −1+ kinsurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate

(or Annuity Factor) Real debt interest rate

Depreciation period in years (system design life)

Annual insurance cost rate

kd

kinsuranceN

15MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Net annual solar electricity production

Annual-average system efficiency

Sunlight collection aperture area

Direct annual solar irradiation energy

Cinvest

CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

=fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

ηsys,yr−avg

Acollector  apertureIincident dt

tyear ,sun

∫

16MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Net annual solar electricity production

Annual-average system efficiency

Sunlight collection aperture area

Direct annual solar irradiation energy

Cinvest

CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

=fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

ηsys,yr−avg

Acollector  apertureIincident dt

tyear ,sun

∫

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LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

18MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditionsNot unique to any technology

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LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcrNot unique to any technology

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LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costsNot really unique to any technology

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LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costs

4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency.

22MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costs

4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. Increasing the collector area causes an increase in costs and generally does not reduce the LEC.

23MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costs

4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency.

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

24MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

• Increasing the overall annual system efficiencyis usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs.

25MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

• Increasing the overall annual system efficiencyis usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs.

• We must develop systems with a potential for higher annual-average system efficiency than possible in present solar systems.

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General Features of Solar-Thermal Systems

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General Features of Solar-Thermal Systems

• There is an energy loss in each step

• The overall annual-average system efficiency is

Where ηi are the annual-average component efficiencies.

!!!

!!!

Annual-averageefficiency≠ “DesignEfficiency”

28MITEISep2016

Now we are ready to deal with theFundamental Requirements

1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

29MITEISep2016

Solar System are Modular by Nature

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Large Scale, Modular Design

~375 MWe Plant near Ivanpah, CA, with 3 Solar Towers

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Large Scale, Modular Design

~150 MWe Trough Plant near Ouarzazate, Morocco with a single Power Conversion Unit [Relatively long heat transmission lines]

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Large Scale, Modular Design

~150 MWe Trough Plant near Ouarzazate, Morocco with a single Power Conversion Unit [Relatively long heat transmission lines]

Firstof3CSPmodules

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Solar System are Modular by Nature

But what should be the size of each module?

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Primary Optics of Solar Tower

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PS10 – Abengoa’s~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

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Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 – Abengoa’s~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m2 heliostats

115m high tower

PS20 – Abengoa’s~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m2 heliostats;

165m high tower

37MITEISep2016

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 – Abengoa’s~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m2 heliostats

115m high tower

PS20 – Abengoa’s~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m2 heliostats;

165m high tower

38MITEISep2016

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 – Abengoa’s~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m2 heliostats

115m high tower

PS20 – Abengoa’s~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m2 heliostats;

165m high tower

As good as possible 2:1 scale up

39MITEISep2016

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 – Abengoa’s~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m2 heliostats

115m high tower

PS20 – Abengoa’s~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m2 heliostats;

165m high tower

As good as possible 2:1 scale upReceiver aperture diameter is increased by ~ !

40MITEISep2016

Gemasolar – Torresol’s ~20 MWe plant with 15 hours of thermal storage, covering nearly 2 km2. 2,650 x 120m2 heliostats; 140m high tower

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

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Gemasolar – Torresol’s ~20 MWe plant with 15 hours of thermal storage, covering nearly 2 km2. 2,650 x 120m2 heliostats; 140m high tower

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

42MITEISep2016

Gemasolar – Torresol’s ~20 MWe plant with 15 hours of thermal storage, covering nearly 2 km2. 2,650 x 120m2 heliostats; 140m high tower

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

Forcedtouse360° radiation’scollectionandexternalreceiver

43MITEISep2016

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

BrightSource’s solar power generation plants near Ivanpah, CA; 3 solar towers, totaling ~375MWe, covering ~16 km2. 173,500 x 15m2 heliostats; 140m high tower

44MITEISep2016

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

Concentrating Dish

– Spillage Losses –

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Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

Concentrating Dish

Solar Tower ~10MWe

– Spillage Losses –

46MITEISep2016

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

Solar Tower > 20MWe

Receiver

SpilledRadiation

ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

Concentrating Dish

Solar Tower ~10MWe

– Spillage Losses –

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ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

Solar Tower > 20MWeEfficiency of External Receiver < Efficiency of Cavity Receiver

Size – Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems

Receiver

SpilledRadiation

ReceiverAperture

SpilledRadiation

Concentrating Dish

Solar Tower ~10MWe

– Spillage Losses –

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Energy Storage in Solar Systems

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Wind Output

Load Required

The TXU (Arizona) Load Requirement

Electrical Power Generation and Distribution

50MITEISep2016

Solar Output

Wind Output

Load Required

Electrical Power Generation and Distribution The TXU (Arizona) Load Requirement

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Electrical Power Generation and Distribution

Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK.

Demand

CoalGas(CC) Nuclear

Wind

52MITEISep2016

Electrical Power Generation and Distribution

Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK.

Demand

Coal Gas Nuclear

Wind

53MITEISep2016

Electrical Power Generation and Distribution

Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK.

Demand

Coal Gas Nuclear

Wind

54MITEISep2016

Electrical Power Generation and Distribution

Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK.

Demand

Coal Gas Nuclear

Wind

55MITEISep2016

Large scale intermittent renewable solutions must include enough

storage to assure power supply per demand

56MITEISep2016

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an

increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area.But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase

2. Larger collection area means• lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar

Tower systems• lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough

systems.

3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area

57MITEISep2016

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an

increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area.But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase

2. Larger collection area means• lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar

Tower systems• lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough

systems.

3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area

58MITEISep2016

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an

increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area.But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase

2. Larger collection area means• lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar

Tower systems• lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough

systems.

3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area

59MITEISep2016

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an

increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area.But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase

2. Larger collection area means• lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar

Tower systems• lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough

systems.

3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area

60MITEISep2016

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an

increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area.But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase

2. Larger collection area means• lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar

Tower systems• lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough

systems.

3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area

61MITEISep2016

Requirements for having storage without increasing the LEC, relative to a solar system of the same size, without storage:

1. Increasing collection area does not cause efficiency reduction of other system components

2. The added storage cost does not exceed the eliminated cost of increasing the power conversion unit.

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7

62MITEISep2016

Requirements for having storage without increasing the LEC, relative to a solar system of the same size, without storage:

1. Increasing collection area does not cause efficiency reduction of other system components

2. The added storage cost does not exceed the eliminated cost of increasing the power conversion unit.

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7

63MITEISep2016

Requirements for having storage without increasing the LEC, relative to a solar system of the same size, without storage:

1. Increasing collection area does not cause efficiency reduction of other system components

2. The added storage cost does not exceed the eliminated cost of increasing the power conversion unit.

Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7

64MITEISep2016

Power Conversion Units for Solar-Thermal Systems

65MITEISep2016

Power Conversion Units Options for Solar Systems

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

PC

U E

ffic

ienc

y

T_high (engine)

Carnot Efficiency

C-N Efficiency

Free-Piston StirlingSteam-Rankine

Brayton

Combined Cycle

sCO2 Brayton

66MITEISep2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

PC

U E

ffic

ienc

y

T_high (engine)

Carnot Efficiency

C-N Efficiency

Free-Piston StirlingSteam-Rankine

Brayton

Combined Cycle

sCO2 Brayton

Power Conversion Units Options for Solar Systems

67MITEISep2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

PC

U E

ffic

ienc

y

T_high (engine)

Carnot Efficiency

C-N Efficiency

Free-Piston StirlingSteam-Rankine

Brayton

Combined Cycle

sCO2 Brayton

• Available at the optimum temperature range for solar-thermal• Available at relatively small sizes (1MWe and larger)

Supercritical CO2 turbine advantages:

Power Conversion Units Options for Solar Systems

68MITEISep2016

Use of Solar Energy for Fuel Production from CO2 and Water

Enable Long Distance Energy Transportation

69MITEISep2016

Dissociation of CO2 using concentrated solar energy

CourtesyofNewCO2Fuels(NCF)andtheWeizmannInstituteofScience

70MITEISep2016

Dissociation of CO2 using concentrated solar energy

CourtesyofNewCO2Fuels(NCF)andtheWeizmannInstituteofScience

To be discussed in a future talk…

71MITEISep2016

The Proposed System

72MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Heliostats

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

2

73MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Heliostats

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

Primary Optics[MIT]

2

74MITEISep2016

Large Scale, Modular Design

• Our Design: Relatively small (~10-15 MWt), high-efficiency module. • Increase system efficiency translates to smaller collection area.

75MITEISep2016

Large Scale, Modular Design

2.5 MWt Solar Tower near Pentakomo CyprusCourtesy of the Cyprus Institute

76MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

2

Heliostats

Secondary Optics and Receiver[Weizmann]

77MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

2

Heliostats

Storage[Alumina Energy]

78MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

2

Heliostats

79MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

2

Heliostats

80MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationSolar Power Generation

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage

Electricity Output

2

Heliostats

sCO2 turbine[Southwest Research

Institute]

81MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationFuel Production

HeliostatsReceiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage 2

78

CO2 & H2O Dissociation

Reactor

Fuel Production

82MITEISep2016

System ConfigurationFuel Production

Receiver

Power Conversion

Unit

Sloping Ground

ConcentratedSunlight

Secondary Reflector

1

3

6

5

4

Storage 2

78

CO2 & H2O Dissociation

Reactor

Heliostats

Fuel Production

Syngas production from CO2 & H2O

[NCF & Weizmann]

83MITEISep2016

Compliance with the Fundamental Requirements

84MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

85MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

✓

86MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

✓

✓

87MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

✓

✓

✓

88MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

✓

✓

✓

✓

89MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost

✓

✓

✓

✓

90MITEISep2016

Fundamental Requirements1. Use clean, renewable energy, with

benign environmental effects

2. Large-scale (hence, modular)

3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it !!!

4. Transport energy over long distances

5. Affordable cost – check efficiency and LEC

✓

✓

✓

✓

91MITEISep2016

Efficiency Comparison

SolarThermalSystems

LinearFresnel

Trough

SolarTower>20MWe

SolarTower~5-20MWe

SolarTower<5MWe

Dish-Concentrator

31%

30%

AchievableAnnualAvgerageSystemefficiency

18%

20%

18%

26%

92MITEISep2016

Efficiency Comparison

Each module of our system is 10-15 MWt (~3.0-4.7 MWe)

SolarThermalSystems

LinearFresnel

Trough

SolarTower>20MWe

SolarTower~5-20MWe

SolarTower<5MWe

Dish-Concentrator

31%

30%

AchievableAnnualAvgerageSystemefficiency

18%

20%

18%

26%

93MITEISep2016

Levelized Energy Cost

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%

NewS-TSysyem

PVw/oStorage

PVwithStorage

CC,NG@2.5$/MMBtu

CC,NG@7.0$/MMBtu

LEC($/MWh)

fcr

Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kWh/m2/day (2040 kWh/m2/year)

94MITEISep2016

Levelized Energy Cost

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%

NewS-TSysyem

PVw/oStorage

PVwithStorage

CC,NG@2.5$/MMBtu

CC,NG@7.0$/MMBtu

LEC($/MWh)

fcr

Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kWh/m2/day (2040 kWh/m2/year)

95MITEISep2016

Levelized Energy Cost

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%

NewS-TSysyem

PVw/oStorage

PVwithStorage

CC,NG@2.5$/MMBtu

CC,NG@7.0$/MMBtu

LEC($/MWh)

fcr

Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kWh/m2/day (2040 kWh/m2/year)

96MITEISep2016

Levelized Energy Cost

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%

NewS-TSysyem

PVw/oStorage

PVwithStorage

CC,NG@2.5$/MMBtu

CC,NG@7.0$/MMBtu

LEC($/MWh)

fcr

Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kWh/m2/day (2040 kWh/m2/year)

97MITEISep2016

Levelized Energy Cost

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%

NewS-TSysyem

PVw/oStorage

PVwithStorage

CC,NG@2.5$/MMBtu

CC,NG@7.0$/MMBtu

LEC($/MWh)

fcr

Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kWh/m2/day (2040 kWh/m2/year)Direct Radiation Energy = 6.8 kWh/m2/day (2500 kWh/m2/year)

98MITEISep2016

Levelized Fuel (Syngas) Cost

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00%

LFC[$/ton]@5.6kWh/m2/day

LFC[$/ton]@6.8kWh/m2/day

LEC($/ton)

fcr

Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kWh/m2/day (2040 kWh/m2/year)Direct Radiation Energy = 6.8 kWh/m2/day (2500 kWh/m2/year)

99MITEISep2016

Development Status• The proposed process combines developments

by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years.

• The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be,• designed for the operating conditions of the

proposed system• scaled up • integrated and operated together

100MITEISep2016

Development Status• The proposed process combines developments

by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years.

• The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be,• designed for the operating conditions of the

proposed system• scaled up • integrated and operated together

101MITEISep2016

Development Status• The proposed process combines developments

by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years.

• The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be,• designed for the operating conditions of the

proposed system• scaled up • integrated and operated together

102MITEISep2016

Development Status• The proposed process combines developments

by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years.

• The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be,• designed for the operating conditions of the

proposed system• scaled up • integrated and operated together

103MITEISep2016

Development Status• The proposed process combines developments

by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years.

• The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be,• designed for the operating conditions of the

proposed system• scaled up • integrated and operated together

104MITEISep2016

Main Conclusions1. The proposed solar power-generation system enables

• very large-scale installation

• Year-round, 24/7 power supply per demand

At competitive Levelized Energy Cost (LEC)

2. The system can be modified for syngas production from CO2 and water by the addition of a chemical reactor, with minor changes of other system components.

105MITEISep2016

Main Conclusions1. The proposed solar power-generation system enables

• very large-scale installation

• Year-round, 24/7 power supply per demand

At competitive Levelized Energy Cost (LEC)

2. The system can be modified for syngas production from CO2 and water by the addition of a chemical reactor, with minor changes of other system components.

106MITEISep2016

Last Comment…

107MITEISep2016

From talk at MIT on Oct. 2009

108MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal

109MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

110MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

– Trough is the only mature solar technology

111MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

– Trough is the only mature solar technology

• Developers are faced with few options:

112MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

– Trough is the only mature solar technology

• Developers are faced with few options: – Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, short-

term payback)

113MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

– Trough is the only mature solar technology

• Developers are faced with few options: – Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, short-

term payback) – Develop a new technology that can be cheaper than trough and

commercially ready in 1-2 years (medium risk, possibly longer payback)

114MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

– Trough is the only mature solar technology

• Developers are faced with few options: – Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, short-

term payback) – Develop a new technology that can be cheaper than trough and

commercially ready in 1-2 years (medium risk, possibly longer payback)

– Develop a breakthrough technology that can reach cost parity with conventional plants but takes 4-5 years to matures (high risk, long term payback)

115MITEISep2016

The ‘Real World’ Problem of Solar Thermal • Facts:

– There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power “here and now”

– Trough is the only mature solar technology

• Developers are faced with few options: – Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, short-

term payback) – Develop a new technology that can be cheaper than trough and

commercially ready in 1-2 years (medium risk, possibly longer payback)

– Develop a breakthrough technology that can reach cost parity with conventional plants but takes 4-5 years to mature (high risk, long term payback)

116MITEISep2016

Our Approach

1. Strive for a long term, lowest cost solar power solution

2. Develop a storage solution

117MITEISep2016

Our Approach

1. Strive for a long term, lowest cost solar power solution

2. Develop a storage solution

3. Fast to market approach is acceptable if it leads to the long term solution

118MITEISep2016

Thank You!

119MITEISep2016

*** Supplement slides ***

120MITEISep2016

The price of Money (GE)Sep. 25, 2016

Short answer:GE are currently able to get loans for around 1% (less with a floating rate, more with a fixed rate).

Longer answer:GE floating rate note issued in 2007 pays interest (coupon) of 0.694%.GE note issued in 2015 (also floating rate) pays 0.287%In 2012 GE issued fixed rate 10 year debt for 2.7% (link)In 2015 GE issued fixed rate 12 year Euro denominated debt for 1.875% (link)In 2015 GE issued fixed rate 8 year Euro denominated debt for 1.25% (link)In 2015 GE issued fixed rate 7 year Euro denominated debt for 0.80% (link)

This page (http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=ge) lists many more GE bonds and has a nice graphic of yields and maturities. While these yields aren't interest rates paid by GE (GE pays more in general) they indicate the rates that the market is willing to accept for GE debt.

121MITEISep2016

The price of MoneyNuclear Power Plants

The modernization of Generation II and III Nuclear Reactors for power generation typically includes improved safety system and 60 years design life.

Generation II reactor designs generally had an original design life of 30 or 40 years. This date was set as the period over which loans taken out for the plant would be paid off.

However, many generation II reactor are being life-extended to 50 or 60 years, and a second life-extension to 80 years may also be economic in many cases.

122MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Annual fuel costs

Net annual electricity production

LEC =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M + C fuel

Eelec,yr

Cinvest

CO&M

C fuel

Eelec,yr

fcr =kd 1+ kd( )N

1+ kd( )N −1+ kinsurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate

(or Annuity Factor)

123MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Annual fuel costs

Net annual electricity production

LEC =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M + C fuel

Eelec,yr

Cinvest

CO&M

C fuel

Eelec,yr

fcr =kd 1+ kd( )N

1+ kd( )N −1+ kinsurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate

(or Annuity Factor)

HereweareonlyinterestedinthesolarLEC

124MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Net annual solar electricity production

Cinvest

CO&M

fcr =kd 1+ kd( )N

1+ kd( )N −1+ kinsurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate

(or Annuity Factor)

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

Esolar−elec,yr

125MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Net annual solar electricity production

Annual-averaged system efficiency

Sunlight collection aperture area

Direct annual solar irradiation energy

Cinvest

CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

=fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

ηsys,yr−avg

Acollector  apertureIincident dt

tyear ,sun

∫

126MITEISep2016

The Levelized Energy Cost

Total capital invested in construction and installation

Annual operation and maintenance

Net annual solar electricity production

Overall annual-averaged system efficiency

Sunlight collection aperture area

Direct annual solar irradiation energy

Cinvest

CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

Esolar−elec,yr

=fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

ηsys,yr−avg

Acollector  apertureIincident dt

tyear ,sun

∫

127MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

128MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditionsNot unique to any technology

129MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcrNot unique to any technology

130MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costsNot really unique to any technology

131MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costs

4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency.

132MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costs

4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. Increasing the collector area causes an increase in costs and generally does not reduce the LEC.

133MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

1. Select a site with good solar conditions

2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr.

3. Lower production, installation and operation costs

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

134MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

• Increasing the overall annual system efficiencyis usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs.

135MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

• Increasing the overall annual system efficiencyis usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs.

• It is the most effective way to decrease LEC.

136MITEISep2016

LEC Reduction

LECsolar =fcr ⋅ Cinvest + CO&M

ηsys,yr−avgAcollector  aperture Iincident dttyear ,sun

∫

• Increasing the overall annual system efficiencyis usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs.

• It is the most effective way to decrease LEC.• We must develop systems with a potential for

higher annual system efficiency than possible in present solar systems.

137MITEISep2016

The Difficult Issues of Solar Thermal

138MITEISep2016

The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal

139MITEISep2016

The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal • The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines

are large – typically over 100MWe units

140MITEISep2016

The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal • The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines

are large – typically over 100MWe units

• Whereas:– Optimum engine size for Parabolic Trough ~50-100MWe– Optimum engine size for Central Receiver <15MWe– Optimum engine size for parabolic dish ~0.1MWe

141MITEISep2016

The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal • The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines

are large – typically over 100MWe units

• Whereas:– Optimum engine size for Parabolic Trough ~50-100MWe– Optimum engine size for Central Receiver <15MWe– Optimum engine size for parabolic dish ~0.1MWe

• The optical efficiency is far better for small solar systems

142MITEISep2016

The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal • The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines

are large – typically over 100MWe units

• Whereas:– Optimum engine size for Parabolic Trough ~50-100MWe– Optimum engine size for Central Receiver <15MWe– Optimum engine size for parabolic dish ~0.1MWe

• The optical efficiency is far better for small solar systems

• Next Generation solar thermal systems must address this problem to reach cost parity with conventional power plants

143MITEISep2016

Optical Characteristics – Dish and Ideal Central Receiver

Parabolic Dish Concentrator

Fresnel Reflectors

144MITEISep2016

Optical Characteristics – Real Central Receiver

• Focal image increases by 1m per 100m distance due to sun-shape• Focal image increases further as the rays angle of attack increases with distance from tower• Heliostat spacings must increase with distance from target to avoid light blocking

145MITEISep2016145

%

Total electricity demand and wind power input to the grid in the E.ON TSO area (Germany)

Electrical Power Generation and Distribution