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Prepared on Behalf of
Center of Strategic Region Development Regional Infrastructure
Development Agency (RIDA) Ministry of Public Works & Housing
Growth Projections and Development
Scenarios
in association with
www.tourismdev.com
INTEGRATED TOURISM MASTER
PLAN FOR BOROBUDUR –
YOGYAKARTA - PRAMBANAN
21st
October
2019
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
Contents
Page No
1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. BYP and the Tourism Area Life Cycle ...................................................................................... 2
1.2. Key Issues affecting tourism in Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan ...................................... 2
1.3. Methodology for determining visitor forecasts and impacts ................................................. 3
2. Growth Projections .................................................................................................... 9 2.1. Population projections ............................................................................................................ 9
2.2. Visitor arrivals projections .................................................................................................... 11
2.3. The significance of domestic tourists .................................................................................... 15
2.4. Implications for Accommodation Provision .......................................................................... 16
2.5. Economic impact projections ................................................................................................ 17
3. Development Scenarios ........................................................................................... 26 3.1. Vision for Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan...................................................................... 26
3.2. Growth Options for BYP ........................................................................................................ 28
4. Proposed Planning, Space and Design Standards ...................................................... 43 4.1. Planning spatial layers ........................................................................................................... 43
4.2. Proposed Design Guidelines .................................................................................................. 46
5. Evaluation ............................................................................................................... 48 5.1. Evaluation criteria ................................................................................................................. 48
5.2. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 49
6. GIS-Based Decision-Making Tool .............................................................................. 50 6.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 50
6.2. GIS Exclusion Layer................................................................................................................ 50
6.3. GIS Attraction Layer .............................................................................................................. 53
6.4. Stakeholder Engagement, Weighting of Parameters............................................................ 54
6.5. Evaluation, Presentation ....................................................................................................... 54
6.6. Representation of Development Scenarios .......................................................................... 54
6.7. Availability of GIS Data .......................................................................................................... 56
6.8. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 57
Appendices
Appendix 1: Supporting information for Section 1.3 (Methodology) ..................................... 58 Appendix 2: Map of ‘Metro Yogyakarta’ ................................................................................. 66 Appendix 3: Indexed figures for economic impacts on GRDP ................................................. 67 Appendix 4: Indicative List of Stakeholder meetings July-October 2019 ................................ 70
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Growth forecasts for international visits .................................................................. 5 Table 1.2: Cost of creating jobs in tourism (direct and indirect) ............................................... 7 Table 1.3: Estimate of spend according to economic sector (Malaysia example) .................... 7 Table 2.1: Population Projections .............................................................................................. 9 Table 2.2: Visitor growth (domestic and international) – ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario ......... 13 Table 2.3: Visitor growth (domestic and international) – ‘Best Case’ Scenario ...................... 13 Table 2.4: Expected Visitor Nights in Destination - ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario ................... 14 Table 2.5: Expected Visitor Nights in Destination - ‘Best Case’ Scenario ................................ 14 Table 2.6: Growth in International Arrivals as Proportion of Total Visitors ............................ 14 Table 2.7: Additional rooms required (Business as Usual) ...................................................... 17 Table 2.8: Additional rooms required (Best Case) ................................................................... 17 Table 2.9: Forecast expected expenditure by all visitors (Business as Usual) ......................... 18 Table 2.10: Forecast expected expenditure by all visitors (Best Case) ................................... 19 Table 2.11: Forecast Tourism Sector Contribution to GRDP of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta (Business as Usual) ................................................................................................................... 20 Table 2.12: Forecast Tourism Sector Contribution to GRDP of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta (Best Case)................................................................................................................................ 21 Table 2.13: Central Java and DI Yogyakarta GRDP (based on current prices) ......................... 22 Table 2.14: Tourism Sector Economic Impacts on other sectors (Central Java and DI Yogyakarta) Business as Usual scenario (USD million) ............................................................ 23 Table 2.15: Tourism Sector Economic Impacts on other sectors (Central Java and DI Yogyakarta) Best Case scenario (USD million) ......................................................................... 23 Table 2.16: Estimated job creation through visitor spend ...................................................... 24 Table 2.17 Tourism Sector’s Impact on Employment - Business as usual scenario (in $ million) ..................................................................................................................................... 24 Table 2.18 Tourism Sector’s Impact on Employment - Best case scenario ............................. 25 Table 3.1: Development Scenario Options .............................................................................. 34 Table 4.1: Proposed Tourism Spatial Layer Planning Standards ............................................. 44 Table 4.2: Proposed Design Guidelines ................................................................................... 46 Table 5.1: Evaluation of Options A, B, and C ........................................................................... 49 Table 6.1: GIS Base Layers........................................................................................................ 57 Table A1.1: Distribution of International arrivals by source market country ......................... 58 Table A1.2: Approximate numbers of visitors from ‘other’ countries .................................... 58 Table A1.3: Accommodation supply data (baseline) ............................................................... 59 Table A1.4: Growth rates for ‘Business as Usual’ scenario...................................................... 61 Table A1.5: Growth rates for Best Case Scenario growth, 2023-45 ........................................ 62 Table A1.6: Inputs to Phase 4 modelling ................................................................................. 63 Table A1.7: Average Daily Spend by Market Category ............................................................ 64 Table A1.8: Percentage Increase in Average Spend (Real Terms per annum) ........................ 65 Table A3.1: Index Figures for tourism’s contribution to the C Java and DIY Economy (Business as Usual) ................................................................................................................................... 67 Table A3.2: Index Figures for tourism’s contribution to the C Java and DIY Economy (Business as Usual) ................................................................................................................................... 68 Table A3.3: Historical Inflation Rates for Central Java ............................................................. 69
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Process of arriving at Development Options ........................................................... 1 Figure 1.2: Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) ................................................................................ 2 Figure 2.1: Overall total population growth for Central Java/DI Yogyakarta .......................... 10 Figure 2.2: International arrivals to Indonesia 1995-2018 ...................................................... 11 Figure 2.3: Growth in International Arrivals as Proportion of Total Visitors ........................... 15 Figure 3.1 : The Sphere of Tourism Resilience ......................................................................... 27 Figure 3.2 : ‘Hub and Spoke’ Option ........................................................................................ 29 Figure 3.3: ‘Cluster and Disperse’ Option ................................................................................ 30 Figure 3.4 : ‘Heart of Java’ Option ........................................................................................... 31 Figure 6.1: Borobudur TDA, Disaster Risk Analysis .................................................................. 51 Figure 6.2: Borobudur TDA, Land Valuation ............................................................................ 52 Figure 6.3, Borobudur TDA, Preliminary Exclusion Assessment .............................................. 53 Figure 6.4: RTRW Kapubaten Magelang .................................................................................. 55
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
1
1. Introduction
Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan (BYP) is a well-established destination which already attracts
significant numbers of visitors, especially domestic tourists and day visitors. The destination is less
well known internationally, with only around 3% of total arrivals coming from abroad. While domestic
growth rates have been encouraging and relatively stable in recent years, there are indications that
the international market is beginning to stagnate – especially as far as visits to the WHS of Borobudur
and Prambanan are concerned - and therefore needs to be energized through an appropriate
development strategy.
This report is divided into four principal sections: Introduction and Key Issues, Growth Projections,
Development Scenarios, and Evaluation. The process is illustrated in the figure below.
Figure 1.1: Process of arriving at Development Options
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
2
1.1. BYP and the Tourism Area Life Cycle
Considering the present position of the destination in the context of Butler’s 1980 Tourism Area Life
Cycle Model (Figure 1), it seems probable that BYP tourism is towards the end of the consolidation
phase and beginning to enter the stagnation phase, mainly because of over-reliance on a narrow
product offer. In such cases there are generally two broad scenarios: either the destination will
decline, both in quality of the product offer and quantity of visitors, or it can be rejuvenated. In the
case of BYP, particularly in the light of President Joko Widodo’s aspiration of seeing 2 million arrivals
of foreign tourists per year at the destination, this means considerable planning in order to revitalise
BYP and move into a rejuvenation phase.
Figure 1.2: Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC)
Source: Butler 19801
1.2. Key Issues affecting tourism in Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan
In order to plan appropriate interventions which will achieve renewal, a thorough understanding of
the area is needed. A Baseline Analysis conducted during 2018-19 identified the principal barriers to
a more successful tourism system for BYP as:
1. Narrow tourism product offer 2. Over-reliance on cultural tourism 3. Overtourism at Borobudur Temple Compounds World Heritage Site (WHS) 4. Weak appreciation of preserving heritage values and heritage economics 5. Over-reliance on domestic market 6. Low international standard of attractions and interpretation 7. Poor access in terms of the volume of existing / forecast arrivals 8. Inadequate services infrastructure 9. Deteriorating environmental conditions, including air pollution and depletion of
groundwater 10. Weak ability of local communities to take advantage of economic opportunities, partly
through skills and training gaps 11. Weak institutional frameworks and enforcement 12. Inadequate coordination and planning
1 Butler, R. (1980) The concept of a tourist Area Cycle of Evolution: Implication for Management of Resources. Canadian Geographer, 24(1), pp.5-20
BY
P
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
3
Strong initiatives will be required to secure growth and avoid long-term decline, and the options for development scenarios presented in this report and in the separate Visitor Management Plan for Borobudur are designed to address these. Before moving on to discuss the development scenarios, likely growth scenarios for domestic population, international and domestic visitor numbers, increased demand for accommodation, and economic growth projections for tourism earnings and contribution to the economy will be presented in the next section. The methodology for calculating the arrivals growth scenarios, which drive increased demand for accommodation and the economic impact of tourism, is shown in Section 1.3, with additional material in Appendix 1.
1.3. Methodology for determining visitor forecasts and impacts
Providing the forecasts of visitor numbers and the demand for additional hotel rooms and other
facilities involved developing a five-phase model. Several data sources were used for this but, as
explained in earlier reports, the baseline of data that we have been able to access is poor, with limited
trend data and gaps. In a number of places, we have had to make assumptions based on our own
experience and from comparable examples outside the study area.
The five-phase model was developed as follows:
Phase 1: Identifying the baseline data for visitor arrivals
Phase 2: Identifying the baseline of accommodation supply and performance
Phase 3: Modelling two scenarios of visitor growth to 2045
Phase 4: Modelling how visitor growth might translate into hotel rooms
Phase 5: Modelling the potential economic impacts of visitor growth
1.3.1. Phase 1: Identifying Arrivals Baseline
Visitors to Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan were divided into four groups.
1. Domestic leisure visitors – staying in commercial accommodation.
2. Domestic business (MICE) visitors - staying in commercial accommodation.
3. International visitors – staying in commercial accommodation. These were further split by
main country of origin.
4. Domestic day and VFR visitors2.
Figures for the first three categories of staying visitors were drawn from the Baseline report (Chapter
4) and are based on DI Yogyakarta data. There was a variety of reasons for using this data:
• it was the most recent available
• the majority of available accommodation (93%) is in DI Yogyakarta
• the model assumed that a trip to the area would generally include a visit to Yogyakarta, so
that using data for Borobudur and Prambanan from a different source could lead to double
counting of visitors.
2 Drawn from Horwath HTL (2016) Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan: Baseline Supply & Demand, Market Demand Forecasts, and Investment Needs
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
4
The split between leisure and business visitors (80:20) is based on data in Horwath HTL (2016), while
the split of international visitors (398,000) by country is based on DI Yogyakarta Tourism Office
Statistics 2017. The distribution split into individual countries is shown in Appendix 1.
1.3.2. Phase 2: Identifying Accommodation Baseline
Phase 2 involved identifying the current accommodation supply and performance across the area.
This included identifying:
• The supply of rooms for four areas – (1) Borobudur, (2) Prambanan, (3) City of Yogyakarta and
(4) DI Yogyakarta, excluding the City of Yogya. Accommodation was split into star and non-
star hotel accommodation, and homestay accommodation.3
• Average Length of Stay (ALOS). For hotels, data was available for international and domestic
ALOS. For Yogyakarta available data on this was also split by star and non-star
accommodation. Estimates of ALOS were available for homestays in Borobudur, and it was
assumed (in the absence of other data) that homestays in other areas would perform in a
similar way.
• Room occupancy by area and star/non-star accommodation. Occupancies varied across the
four areas – they were much higher in the City of Yogyakarta and DI Yogyakarta.
• Average guests per room. Available occupancy data related to rooms, rather than bed-spaces,
and the number of guests per room was required to translate arrivals (identified in Phase 1)
into room nights. A figure of 1.9 guests per room was used.4
• International and domestic guest splits by accommodation type.
Tables detailing these data and assumptions are shown in Appendix 1.
1.3.3. Phase 3: modelling Visitor Growth Projections
The third phase of the model involved estimating future growth of visitor numbers. Different ‘drivers’
were used for different market groups and forecasts were made for each period to 2045.
• Domestic staying visitors: the driver used to model future growth for domestic staying visitors
was the Horwath 2017 ‘Business as Usual’ and ‘Best Case Scenarios’.
• International visitors: the driver for international visitors was historic performance. An annual
growth rate was calculated for the main international source markets based on their relative
historic performance from 2011 (based on BPS data). Different markets grew at different
rates. This CAGR was then applied to future years, with the assumption that growth rates
would slow as the destination matures and the base of international visitors grows. The model
looks at two different scenarios with different international growth rates.
• Domestic day and VFR visitors: the driver used was, again, the Horwath 2017 ‘Business
as Usual’ and ‘Best Case Scenarios’.
3 No data was available on homestays in Yogyakarta and Prambanan. The supply figures used in the model were an assumption based on the same ratio of homestays to hotels as in Borobudur. 4 BPS Provinsi Jawa Tengah (2018) Statistik Tingkat Penghunian Kamar Hotel Provinsi Jawa Tengah 2017, Semarang: Badan Pusat Statistik
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
5
Detailed rates of growth for the ‘Business as Usual’ and ‘Best Case’ scenarios are given in Appendix 1.
In summary, the CAGR for International arrivals to 2045 is 4.1%, and for all visitors to 2045 is 3.0%
under the Business as Usual Scenario. Under the Best Case scenario, CAGR for international arrivals is
6.13%, and for all visitors is 3.11%.
Government growth forecasts for international arrivals to Indonesia to 2045 are as shown below:
Table 1.1: Growth forecasts for international visits 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
International Tourists (mn) 14.0 21.6 31.8 42.8 57.5 65.1 73.6
CAGR (per 5 years) 15.5% 8.04% 6.12% 6.08% 2.51% 2.54%
CAGR (2020-2045)
6.1%
Source: Bappenas (2019)
As a comparison, WTTC estimates that the total contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP in Indonesia
(including wider effects from investment, the supply chain and induced income impacts) will increase
by 6.4% per annum to 2028.5 Thus, all estimates of growth appear to be reasonably consistent.
Having said that, these growth rates should be regarded as illustrative scenarios, since the baseline of
available tourism data and performance is far from perfect, and future visitor numbers will be
influenced by a complex range of factors that are impossible to quantify at this stage. These include
potential interventions in product development, marketing and infrastructure, economic performance
in source market countries, performance and development of competitor destinations, climate
change and its impacts on air travel, costs, and propensity to travel, and other global events and trends
such as wars and other forms of political instability.
1.3.4. Phase 4: Modelling Accommodation Projections
The fourth phase of the model translated the visitor growth projections into potential room nights.
The model had five potential areas for accommodation growth (Borobudur, Prambanan, City of
Yogyakarta, Metro Yogyakarta,6 and the rest of Joglosemar).
The model provided projections of hotel rooms for five-year periods to 2038 and then a seven-year
period through to 2045. Through these periods, the model makes assumptions about a number of
variables. These include:
• Average length of stay (ALOS). ALOS was split for domestic and international visitors. It was
initially based on the baseline data (Phase 2) with the assumption as that it would gradually
increase as the product offer developed to reach an average of 2.8 days for international
visitors and 2.1 days for domestic visitors by 2045.
• Room occupancy. This was also based on the baseline data and was assumed to gradually
increase to reach 70% room occupancy across the whole area by 2045.
5 WTTC (2018) Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2018 Indonesia 6 ‘Metro Yogya’ consists of the most developed kecamatan around the periphery of the City of Yogyakarta, i.e. Kec. Sleman, Kec. Ngaglik, Kec. Ngemplak, Kec. Depok, Kec. Kalasan, Kec. Mlati in Kab. Sleman; Kec. Gamping, Kec. Kasihan, Kec. Sewon, Kec. Banguntapan in Kab. Bantul (see also map in Appendix 2).
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
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• The percentage of staying visits in hotels. Some staying visits are in homestay
accommodation. A level for this was calculated in the baseline analysis (Phase 2). This varied
slightly by area but typically around 90% of staying visits to the area were in hotels. The model
assumed that this level would remain constant moving forward to 2045.
• Number of guests per room. Based on the baseline data, the model assumed this would
remain constant.
• Distribution of visits across the five different areas (outlined above). Phase 3 of the model
identified the number of staying visits that the area may attract in the future. Staying visits
are not currently distributed evenly and the model made assumptions on where room-nights
(and therefore) rooms would be distributed in the future. This was initially based on the
baseline distribution of room nights (from Phase 2). Through time, the model assumed that
some room-nights would shift to other areas outside the Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan
area as infrastructure developed. These were a relatively small proportion – 5.95% of nights
in 2023 rising to 12% in 2045.
The inputs for the Phase 4 analysis are summarised in Appendix 1.
Using these variables, the model translated visits (from Phase 3) to new rooms required. New rooms
required was based on subtracting existing bedstock from overall rooms required (NB this applied only
to Borobudur, Prambanan, City of Yogyakarta, and Metro Yogyakarta. For other areas growth in visits
was assumed to translate to new rooms – i.e. there was no ‘soak up’ from existing bedstock).
1.3.5. Phase 5: Modelling Impacts
The final phase of the model is to translate the growth of visitors into direct and indirect spend and
potential employment impacts.
The process is as follows:
• Phase 4 of the model produces estimates of visitor nights (which are then translated into
rooms) for domestic and international visitors. These are broken down further (since different
groups have different spend levels). Domestic visitors are split into leisure trips and business
trips. The assumption has been that this ratio will stay unchanged from the baseline (i.e. 80%
leisure / 20% business). International nights are broken into areas on the basis of arrivals
(derived from Phase 3). The assumption (in the absence of other data) is that ALOS will be the
same across all international markets.
• Nights by market groups (domestic leisure/business, international by area) are then multiplied
by a figure of spend per day. The model assumes a modest increase in spend per visitor night
over the period of the plan. The percentage increases are shown in Appendix 1.
In terms of spend, available figures would again benefit from improvements and consistent data
collection by BPS. For example, they are not broken down by categories of visitor spend.
The model assumes a modest increase in spend per visitor night (shown in Appendix 1), while
multiplying visitor nights by spend per night provides an overall direct spend figure. We are not aware
of the existence of specific multipliers for the tourism sector for the study area. As such, direct spend
is translated into an estimate of indirect and induced spend by the application of a ratio derived from
the WTTC Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2018 Indonesia report which highlights that 33% of
tourism spend is direct, 45.1% is indirect and 21.9% is induced. Therefore, for every $1 spent directly,
$2.03 are spent indirectly/induced.
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
7
Similarly, the absence of spend breakdowns into discrete economic sectors and associated turnover
and employment cost for those sectors makes employment estimates difficult. Again, the model
applies a spend-to-employment ratio to the direct spend figures in order to provide an estimate of
direct employment in the sector, and to direct, indirect and induced spend to provide an estimate of
total employment.7 This gives a total ‘cost’ of USD 4,546 per job created, as shown in Table 1.2.
Table 1.2: Cost of creating jobs in tourism (direct and indirect)
Total direct contribution to GDP 2017 (IDR bn): 259,583.00
Total direct employment in tourism 2017 4,585,000
‘Cost' per job (direct) (IDR) 56,615,703
‘Cost’ per job (direct) (USD) 4,000
Total direct and indirect contribution to GDP (IDR bn) 787,100.00
Total direct/indirect employment 12,241,500
Cost' per job (IDR) 64,297,676
Cost per job ($) 4,546
It is likely that through time, the nominal 'cost' per job will increase as labour costs increase and
businesses introduce greater operational efficiencies. Based on the growth projections in the WTTC
report (to 2028), the model assumes that jobs grow at half the rate of expenditure.
Finally, the model provides an estimate of spend by broad economic sector. No comprehensive data
was available on the economic sectors in which visitors spend within the study area. As such, data is
drawn from the Malaysian Tourism Satellite Account 2018 (on the basis that Malaysia has a roughly
equivalent tourism economy). These are as shown in the table below:
Table 1.3: Estimate of spend according to economic sector (Malaysia example)
% share of spend
International Domestic Domestic Day
Shopping 33.5% 42.0% 42.0%
Accommodation 24.7% 9.5%
Transport 18.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Food and beverage
13.4% 15.5% 15.5%
Travel Agents 4.4%
Fuel
16.6% 16.6%
Other 6.0% 9.4% 18.9%
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
7 The ratio is based on WTTC (2018) op. cit.
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
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1.3.6. Stakeholder engagement
In addition to the preparation of a model for forecasting growth and estimating impacts, the
Consultant carried out a wide range of consultative meetings with stakeholders in the ITMP. While
during the first stages of the programme, meetings were concerned primarily with collecting data on
the BYP area, later meetings have focused on sharing initial concepts and other information with
stakeholder bodies and refining the concepts in the light of feedback received.
Stakeholder bodies consulted in this way include:
• Bappenas
• Ministry of Tourism
• Pemda Jawa Tengah
• Bappeda DIY
• Bappeda Kab. Magelang
• Bappeda Kota Yogkarta
• Bappeda Kab. Klaten
• Dinas Pariwisata Kota Yogyakarta
• Dinas Pariwisata Kab. Sleman
• Dinas Pariwisata Kab. Magelang
• LitBangDa Magelang
• Geology Department UGM
• Kecamatan and Tourism representatives from Borobudur, Yogyakarta and Prambanan KTAs
• Dinas PUP ESDM, DI Yogyakarta
• Dinas Pertanahan dan Tata Ruang, DI Yogyakarta
• Cipta Karya
• DLH Magelang
• PDM Magelang
• TPS (Tim Pembangunan Prioritas) DI Yogyakarta
• BCO (Borobudur Conservation Office)
• BPCB
• BOB (Badan Otorita Borobudur)
• UNESCO
Further meetings with stakeholders were requested, but in some cases, responses proved impossible
to obtain, or when the Consultant arrived at the specified time the stakeholder had been called away
to another meeting. A further challenge has been the frequent change of personnel in Indonesian
government departments (as noted in the Baseline Analysis Report).
An indicative list, with dates of meetings, is included in Appendix 3.
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
9
2. Growth Projections
2.1. Population projections The resident population in Central Java and DI Yogyakarta is forecast to grow steadily on an annual basis in line with population growth generally in Indonesia (Table 2.1).
Table 2.1: Population Projections Population 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Kec. Kotagede 33,508 35,213 36,719 38,011 39,084 42,205
Kec. Kraton 17,575 18,469 19,259 19,937 19,500 21,088
Kec. Danurejan 19,128 20,101 20,961 21,699 22,311 22,951
Kec. Gondomanan 13,697 14,394 15,010 15,538 15,976 16,435
Kec. Ngampilan 17,031 17,898 18,663 19,320 19,865 20,435
Kec. Gedongtengen 18,388 19,324 20,150 20,859 21,488 22,063
Total KTA Yogyakarta 119,327 125,399 130,762 135,364 139,224 145,177
Kota/TDA Yogyakarta 419,185 440,515 459,359 475,518 497,968 502,969
Kab. Kulon Progo 425,744 472,930 518,353 560,992 599,839 642,545
Kab. Bantul 1,006,226 1,057,429 1,102,661 1,141,448 1,173,679 1,207,347
Kab. Gunung Kidul 704,026 739,852 810,910 862,701 887,058 912,509
Kab. Sleman 1,207,134 1,268,561 1,322,824 1,369,355 1,408,022 1,448,412
Total DI Yogyakarta 3,762,315 3,979,287 4,214,107 4,410,014 4,566,566 4,713,782
Kec. Prambanan-Sleman 53,090 55,792 58,178 60,225 61,925 63,701
Kec. Prambanan-Klaten 51,133 53,159 55,433 57,383 59,003 60,280
Total KTA/TDA Prambanan
104,223 108,951 113,611 117,608 120,928 123,981
Kab. Klaten 1,180,259 1,240,318 1,293,373 1,338,868 1,376,674 1,416,164
Kab. Magelang 1,274,881 1,339,755 1,386,266 1,446,207 1,487,043 1,529,700
Kab. Boyolali 985,313 1,035452 1,079,744 1,117,725 1,149,286 1,182,254
Kab. Sukoharjo 888,048 933,238 973,158 1,007,389 1,035,835 1,065,548
Kab. Semarang 1,038,806 1,091,667 1,138,364 1,178,406 1,211,681 1,246,438
Kab. Temanggung 767,489 806,544 841,044 870,628 895,212 920,892
Kota Magelang 122,812 129,061 134,582 139,316 143,250 147,359
Kota Surakarta 521,786 548,338 571,794 591,907 608,620 626,079
Kota Salatiga 191,009 200,729 209,315 216,678 222,796 229,187
Kota Semarang 1,777,045 1,867,472 1,947,355 2,015,854 2,072,775 2,132,234
Total Joglosemar 12,156,482 12,776,287 13,319,917 13,840,126 14,278,140 14,720,226
Total Central Java 34,635,181 36,397,647 37,954,575 39,289,648 40,399,059 41,557,933
Kec. Borobudur 59,476 62,503 68,506 72,881 74,939 77,089
Kec. Mungkid 75,933 79,797 87,461 93,047 95,674 98,419
Total KTA Borobudur 135,409 142,300 155,967 165,928 170,613 175,508
Kec. Tempuran 49,109 51,608 56,565 60,177 61,876 63,652
Kec. Mertoyudan 113,526 119,303 130,761 139,113 143,040 147,144
Kec. Muntilan 78,258 82,240 90,139 95,896 98,603 101,433
Total TDA Borobudur 376,302 395,451 433,432 461,114 474,133 487,737
Source: BPS Indonesia population statistics and World Bank Population Estimates and Projections8
8 https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/population-estimates-and-projections
https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/population-estimates-and-projections
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
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It should be noted that there are slight differences between the figures shown in the Baseline Analysis
Report and the current report because of differences in how statistics are collected by different
government bodies. Overall, the population of the two provinces where BYP is located is expected to
grow by a total of approximately 7,874,219 between 2018 and 2045 (Figure 2.1).9
Figure 2.1: Overall total population growth for Central Java/DI Yogyakarta
As established in the Baseline study, in both DI Yogyakarta and Central Java the proportion of residents aged over 65 is higher than in other provinces of Indonesia and this proportion will increase over time. At the same time household sizes are gradually declining in both provinces due to declining birth-rates and possibly to out-migration. Notwithstanding the higher than average proportion of people aged over 65, the majority of the
population in the three TDAs is aged 39 or younger, thus ensuring a ready labour supply in the
foreseeable future. Interventions to stimulate tourism growth will help to provide work for people in
the productive age-range and will help to counter a tendency towards out-migration. Any growth in
tourism will thus alleviate unemployment, and the declining unemployment rate will enhance GRDP.
Also, the tourism opportunities offered at community level may help to counter population decline
due to rural out-migration, especially from peripheral areas such as Gunung Kidul.
It is often a concern that tourism developments will create a ‘magnet effect’, drawing people from
outside the area who may place greater strain on water and other environmental resources and
develop the available entrepreneurial opportunities in the place of local people who may have less
experience. In the case of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta, however, the resident population has
proved to be capable of taking advantage of tourism-related opportunities, at least on a small scale
and catering to domestic tourists. This is evidenced by successful initiatives such as the Breksi Cliff
attraction in Kec. Prambanan-Sleman and the Twin Temples Fesitval at Plaosan in Kec. Prambanan-
Klaten. The Desa Wisata of Kampoeng Mataram in Kec. Sewon, Kab. Bantul; Candirejo in Kec.
Borobudur; and Penting Sari in Kec. Cangkringan, Kab. Sleman, are also good examples of where the
communities have themselves created products which appeal to different market segments (mainly
domestic, although with some interest from foreign tourists too).
9 The SUPAS 2018 report, based on a 2015 survey, has a different set of figures. Unfortunately the SUPAS figures could not be used as they are only available at province level, whereas a greater degree of granularity is required for the ITMP.
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In addition, local communities have competently responded to the demand for ‘Instagramable’
attractions, for instance by developing numerous ‘selfie spots’ throughout the region, including
‘sunrise spots’ and ‘sunset spots’ in the hills around the Borobudur Temple World Heritage Site (WHS).
2.2. Visitor arrivals projections
Forecasts for tourist arrivals to the TDAs and surrounding areas are based upon historical growth rates and the following assumptions:
• Growth rates in Indonesian tourism have been particularly high over the period 2010-18 compared with the previous decade, when there was considerable socio-political-economic disruption early in the decade followed by the Bali bombings in 2002 and 2005 (see Figure 2.2).
Figure 2.2: International arrivals to Indonesia 1995-2018
Source: Baseline Analysis Report
• It is expected that future growth rates will be lower than during the period 2010-18 because
of factors affecting the international economy, including the slowdown in growth rates of the
Chinese and Indian economies; the trade war between the US and China; and shifting trading
linkages as countries review their alliances (for example the UK’s exit from the European
Union).
• Other countries also see tourism as an important contributor to their foreign exchange
earnings, which will result in significant competition for market share.
• International propensity to travel by air, in particular long-haul, may decline due to rising costs
of air fares because of the internalization of the environmental costs of travel, and because of
the growing awareness of the contribution of air travel to climate change.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
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99
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BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
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• Indonesia’s programme of emphasizing tourism as an engine of growth in many parts of the
country (in particular through ITMP programmes in ten areas, including BYP) means that all of
these areas will be competing for international market share.
• The BYP area has some strong attractions which can compete on a global scale, in particular
the WHS of Borobudur, Prambanan and Sangiran and – potentially, if better managed – the
historic cities of Yogyakarta and Surakarta and their associated intangible cultural heritage.
However, many of its other existing and potential attractions (beach resort tourism, lakes,
activity and ecotourism opportunities, folk culture) compare less favourably on an
international scale with attractions elsewhere in Southeast Asia and the rest of the world and
are more likely to appeal to a domestic market.
• Indonesia is fortunate in having a robust and expanding domestic market, reflecting the
healthy state of the national economy. This indicates that the domestic market for BYP will
continue to be strong, which provides an extremely positive way of supporting employment
and redistributing wealth from ‘core’ urban and industrialised areas to ‘peripheral’ rural and
underdeveloped areas.
The Consultant is aware that there are considerable aspirations for the contribution to Indonesia’s
international tourism arrivals and foreign exchange earnings from the BYP and other ITMPs. However,
the team advises a cautious approach because of the above factors. The tables below reflect this
realistic approach.
Tables 2.2-2.4 show the projected visitor growth in numbers from the principal markets, based on
data from the 2017 ‘Demand Assessment’ by Horwath HTL.10 For this, our assumption is that the
‘Business as Usual’ scenario is based on organic market growth with no significant interventions. This
is slightly more positive than the Horwath assumption, which is that growth will gradually slow down
due to lack of capacity in the destination and the slowing down of the domestic population growth
rate. The ‘Best Case’ scenario assumes that growth in international markets will be strong as
infrastructure, services and products at the market gradually improve through public and private
sector investment.
10 Horwath HTL (2017) Lombok/Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan/Lake Toba Baseline Supply and Demand, market demand forecasts, and investment needs (hereafter: ‘Demand Assessment’, as per MPWH Environmental and Social Management
Framework)
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
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Table 2.2: Visitor growth (domestic and international) – ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Total staying visitors
5,229,298 6,692,055 7,432,722 7,995,316 8,523,029 9,327,938
Domestic (staying hotels/guesthouses)
4,831,347 6,113,195 6,683,549 7,094,303 7,530,300 8,186,078
Leisure and culture 3,861,854 4,886,477 5,342,380 5,670,708 6,019,215 6,543,400
MICE 969,493 1,226,718 1,341,170 1,423,595 1,511,085 1,642,678
Day visits / VFR 7,000,000 7,883,137 8,244,321 8,494,637 8,752,552 9,126,843
International 397,951 578,860 749,173 901,013 992,728 1,141,860
Europe, USA & Australia
203,303 299,912 385,694 458,045 499,963 565,679
ASEAN 117,554 149,506 173,922 192,495 202,571 217,578
Other Asia & MENA 77,094 129,442 189,173 250,473 290,194 358,603
Table 2.3: Visitor growth (domestic and international) – ‘Best Case’ Scenario 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Total staying visitors
5,229,298 7,076,355 8,322,671 9,532,127 10,897,816 12,865,382
Domestic (staying hotels/ guesthouses)
4,831,347 6,474,467 7,469,317 8,368,721 9,376,424 10,994,277
Leisure and culture 3,861,854 5,175,253 5,970,469 6,689,392 7,494,882 8,788,085
MICE 969,493 1,299,214 1,498,848 1,679,329 1,881,542 2,206,192
Day visits / VFR 7,000,000 8,117,854 9,184,607 10,140,548 11,195,984 12,425,806
International 397,951 601,888 853,354 1,163,407 1,521,392 1,871,104
Europe, USA & Australia
203,303 299,913 398,586 498,259 493,558 672,508
ASEAN 117,554 149,506 177,407 202,347 223,983 240,589
Other Asia & MENA 77,094 152,469 277,361 462,801 703,851 958,007
Source: Consultant’s calculation based on Baseline Report, Horwath HTL op. cit., UNWTO11
The tables above indicate that numbers of foreign tourists are expected to increase from the current
total of just under 400,000 per annum to reach 1.14 million by 2045 through organic growth (Business
as Usual) if nothing is done to stimulate further arrivals, or 1.87 million with appropriate interventions
and increasing market interest under the Best Case scenario. The strongest growth is likely to come
from ASEAN and other Asian markets, especially China and India, rather than from the more mature
European, North American and Australian markets.
Meanwhile, domestic staying tourists are expected to increase from the current 4.8 million to 8.16
million under an organic growth scenario, and 10.99 million under the Best Case scenario. For
domestic visitors, we calculate that 20% are MICE visitors, on the basis of our research for the Baseline
Analysis Report (Yogyakarta is a popular city for conferences because of the high number of Higher
Education Institutions located there).
11 UNWTO/GTERC (2014) Asia Tourism Trends. Madrid: UNWTO
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In addition, we see significant growth amongst day-visitors and the VFR category as the population of
Joglosemar becomes increasingly prosperous and aspirational in terms of seeking recreational
opportunities, and as people travel more widely to visit friends and relatives, from an estimated 7
million per year to 9.1 million under the Business as Usual scenario and 12.4 million under the Best
Case scenario. The importance of the domestic markets is explained in Section 2.1.2 below.
Tables 2.4 and 2.5 take the above growth scenario projections forward into the number of nights
expected to be spent in the destination by staying visitors. This is based on the assumption that the
Average Length of Stay (ALOS) will show no growth in the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, at 1.4 days in
Borobudur and Prambanan (the lowest in the destination) and 2.3 in Yogyakarta (the highest in the
destination), while in the Best Case scenario the average number of nights will increase for foreign
visitors from 1.4 days in Borobudur and Prambanan, 2.1 days in Metro Yogyakarta and the rest of
Joglosemar, and 2.3 days in Kota Yogyakarta to 2.8 days across the destination.
Meanwhile, ALOS for domestic visitors is again expected to remain static in the Business as Usual
scenario, at 1.4 in Borobudur and Prambanan KTAs, 1.6 in Kota Yogyakarta, and 2 in the rest of
Joglosemar. In the Best Case scenario, ALOS is expected to increase for domestic visitors at a slower
rate than for international visitors to 2.1 across the destination by 2045.
The increases in ALOS for both foreign and domestic markets will be due to the expected
interventions, that will encourage people to stay longer because there is more to do, while the greater
rate of increase for international visitors will be largely due to the expansion in air access due to YIA
(Yogyakarta International Airport), and to increased promotion of the opportunities in Joglosemar
linked with expansion of the product offer.
Table 2.4: Expected Visitor Nights in Destination - ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario
Table 2.5: Expected Visitor Nights in Destination - ‘Best Case’ Scenario Baseline 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Total Staying Visitors 9,899,938 12,173,293 15,731,090 18,985,445 23,103,774 28,327,075
Domestic Overnight 9,003,550 10,865,808 13,721,655 16,068,866 19,046,819 23,087,982
International Overnight 896,388 1,307,485 2,009,487 2,916,520 4,056,794 5,239,093
Source: Consultant’s calculation
Table 2.6: Growth in International Arrivals as Proportion of Total Visitors 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Business as usual 7.60% 8.60% 10.10% 11.30% 11.60% 12.20%
Best Case 7.60% 8.50% 10.30% 12.20% 14.00% 14.50%
Baseline 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Total Staying Visitors 9,899,938 11,516,964 14,042,228 15,880,590 17,943,935 20,387,972
Domestic Staying 9,003,550 10,259,501 12,278,074 13,621,815 15,296,778 17,190,763
International Staying 896,388 1,257,462 1,764,075 2,258,468 2,646,848 3,197,208
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15
Figure 2.3: Growth in International Arrivals as Proportion of Total Visitors
The implications of visitor growth are illustrated in Table 2.6 and Figure 2.3 above. We expect the
number of foreign visitor arrivals as a proportion of total arrivals to increase from 7.6% currently to
12.2% under the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, although with a levelling off towards the end of the
period due to the failure to rejuvenate the destination, as predicted by the Tourism Area Life Cycle
model described earlier in this report. Under the Best Case Scenario, international arrivals are
expected to increase to 14.5% as a proportion of the total. This is the logical course as the destination
becomes better known in international markets.
2.3. The significance of domestic tourists
We include here a reminder of the importance of domestic tourists to the visitor economy.
The role of domestic tourists – especially the youth market – in spearheading tourism development
should not be underestimated, especially where more remote areas or peripheral areas are
concerned. The worth of international backpackers in this regard has been recognised for many years,
with destinations ‘discovered’ by them later taken up and developed for wealthier and more formally
organised visitor categories. Nowadays, in an increasingly wealthy country such as Indonesia, it is
aspirational young professionals and students – often with their own means of transport – who
perform this role. In Yogyakarta and its immediate surroundings there are approximately 400,000
students, who are often pioneers of up-and-coming destinations.
In the BYP area and surroundings, for example, attractions such as Kali Biru (Kab. Kulon Progo),
Punthuk Sethumbu (Kec. Borobudur), Gereja Sayidan (Kec. Gondomanan, Kota Yogyakarta), and Mt.
Nglanggeran (Kab. Gunung Kidul) have come to prominence thanks to the energy of young people
keen to explore new areas. Not only does this help to stimulate local entrepreneurial responses, but
it gives local people a non-formal type of experiential, on-the-job learning in tourism which they can
later put to good use in catering to a more demanding international market.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Business as usual Best Case
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Domestic demand and supply is also responsible for developing not just small-scale attractions and
resorts but some reasonably large-scale initiatives. For instance, domestic tourists from Yogyakarta
now flock in considerable numbers at weekends to the beaches at the southern end of the Gunung
Sewu Geopark (south of Wonosari), where the yellow sands and rocky outcrops form pretty, sheltered
bays.
A further important factor in providing a varied product which appeals to the domestic market is to
retain the value of local spend by encouraging Indonesians not to travel abroad to spend their
disposable income but instead take ‘staycations’ within their own country – thus reducing the amount
of Indonesia-earned income which leaves the national economy, and helping to reduce the current
account deficit.
2.4. Implications for Accommodation Provision
Growth in visitor arrivals will stimulate an increase in the number of hotel and guesthouse rooms
required. We have attempted to quantify the projected additional rooms required under the growth
scenarios outlined above, although as stated in the Baseline Analysis Report, this is challenging due to
the weakness of tourism-related data collected by the public sector in terms of its thoroughness and
consistency, and to the fact that much of the commercial accommodation used – especially by
domestic tourists – is unregistered, principally under the ‘kost’ system of informal guesthouses.
To carry out our calculations we assume that the ALOS will gradually increase (as discussed above in
the Methodology section), and that occupancy rates in hotels and guesthouses will also increase.
Annual occupancy levels are currently low, at around 40%-65%, with the lowest levels in Borobudur
and Prambanan and the highest in star-rated hotels in the City of Yogyakarta. The variation is due to
the fact that accommodation in the Borobudur and Prambanan KTAs is mainly used at weekends,
while in Yogyakarta there is less variation in occupancy across the week because of greater use by
business visitors and because of the MICE sector, with hotels often using these markets to fill rooms
on weekdays. Homestay-style accommodation shows extremely low rates, sometimes as low as 15%,
which is a reflection of how village-based accommodation does not meet the standard expected by
either foreign or domestic markets.
Tables 2.7 and 2.8 show the additional rooms required in both star-rated and non-star-rated hotels
and guesthouses combined. For 2023 in the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, a negative figure appears
overall because we expect occupancy rates to increase over the period, while in the first 5 years or so
there will be no rooms required overall in BYP because of existing over-capacity in Yogyakarta. Under
the Best Case scenario hotels and guesthouses will more quickly achieve better occupancy rates and
more investment will be needed to build more accommodation.
Our calculations show that under the Business as Usual scenario, an additional 8,321 rooms will be
needed by 2045 throughout BYP to cope with an organic growth in the visitor market, while under the
Best Case scenario an additional 21,240 rooms would be needed. These calculations do not take
account of probable take-up of room capacity in other parts of Joglosemar, especially Solo and
Magelang, which are the cities closest to BYP.
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Table 2.7: Additional rooms required (Business as Usual)
Additional Accommodation Required (Rooms)
Total Borobudur
TDA Prambanan
TDA City of
Yogyakarta Metro
Yogyakarta
Baseline n/a
2023 415 352 109 122 (168)*
2028 3,277 758 240 1,498 781
2033 4,132 1,084 335 2,037 676
2038 4,919 1,442 426 2,427 624
2045 8,321 1,825 497 4,871 1,128
*This figure is negative because of current low occupancy levels in the immediate area around the
City of Yogya; we expect increased arrivals to take up some of this spare capacity.
Table 2.8: Additional rooms required (Best Case)
Additional Accommodation Required (Rooms)
Total Borobudur Prambanan City of
Yogyakarta Metro
Yogyakarta
Baseline n/a
2023 1,853 480 135 1,076 163
2028 6,654 1,074 309 3,683 1,588
2033 9,815 1,659 465 5,720 1,972
2038 13,479 2,378 640 7,953 2,508
2045 21,240 3,245 816 13,302 3,876
2.5. Economic impact projections In planning for both international and domestic tourists, our approach is based on an increased length
of stay and visitor spend in both categories. An increased length of stay will result in greater spend
per trip, therefore contributing greater economic benefits to the region. This also has the benefit of
reducing the environmental impacts of tourism because the major environmental costs of tourism are
normally incurred in travelling to and from a destination.
The tables below also take into account the strength and diversity of the Indonesian economy, which
means that the great majority of goods and services needed to supply the tourism sector can be
sourced within the country. This results in relatively low leakages and a significant multiplier effect
because of indirect and induced spending as well as direct spending by tourists: for instance, the WTTC
estimates that just 12% of travel and tourism spending leaks out of the economy through imports.12
Here again, the domestic market is as significant as the international market – indeed probably more
so, as local visitors may have less demand for imported goods and more interest in purchasing locally-
made souvenirs and local food.
12 WTTC (2017) Indonesia Travel & Tourism Benchmarking Report
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There are two sources of information on expenditure for domestic visitors – the Horwath HTL report
already referred to (pg. 29), and the Baseline Report for the ITMP, which draws data from Statistics of
Domestic Tourist Profile 2016 (BPS) and from the Visitor Behaviour Survey carried out for the study.
The BPS data has been used for Overnight visits since it has been judged to be more accurate than the
Horwath data (although the values are relatively close), while data from the Visitor Behaviour Survey
data has been used for day visits since, again, it is judged to be more realistic than the Horwath data
(although, again, the values are relatively close).
No spend figures exist for MICE visitors. We have assumed spend to be similar to domestic overnight
visitors but have increased accommodation and food & beverage spend. Average spend per day for
international visitors is taken from the BPS Passenger Exit Survey (2016). We are not aware of the
existence of specific multipliers for the tourism sector for the study area, and so direct spend has been
translated into an estimate of indirect and induced spend by applying a ratio derived from the WTTC
Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2018 Indonesia report (pg. 6) which highlights the following
spend breakdown:
• Direct: 33%
• Indirect: 45.10%
• Induced: 21.90%
Therefore, every $1 spent directly in the local economy creates a further value of $2.03 in indirect and
induced spend.
2.5.1. Visitor Expenditure Forecasts
Tables 2.9 and 2.10 illustrate the expected forecast expenditure by all visitors (international and
domestic, overnight and day/VFR visitors) in terms of direct expenditure and in terms of indirect and
induced expenditure. These calculations show that under the Business as Usual scenario, the tourism
sector is likely to contribute a total of USD 4,157 million per annum to the economy of Central Java
and DI Yogyakarta by 2045, while according to the Best Case scenario, tourism should generate USD
6,100 million for the economy (direct, indirect and induced spend).
Table 2.9: Forecast expected expenditure by all visitors (Business as Usual)
Spend ($m) 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Direct spend 432 586 794 985 1,172 1,372
Domestic Overnight 231 297 392 469 553 621
International Overnight 87 144 234 330 417 540
Day Visitors/VFR 115 145 168 186 202 210
Total Spend (direct, indirect and induced )
1,311 1,777 2,406 2,986 3,551 4,157
Domestic Overnight 701 899 1,188 1,420 1,676 1,883
International Overnight 262 437 709 1,001 1,264 1,637
Day Visitors/VFR 347 441 509 565 612 638
Note: Some figures appear not to add up exactly because input figures have been rounded up or down.
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Table 2.10: Forecast expected expenditure by all visitors (Best Case) Spend ($m) 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Direct spend 432 614 892 1,204 1,590 2,013
Domestic Overnight 231 314 438 553 689 835
International Overnight 87 150 267 429 643 892
Day Visitors/VFR 115 150 187 222 258 287
Total Spend direct, indirect and induced )
1,311 1,861 2,704 3,648 4,818 6,100
Domestic Overnight 701 952 1,328 1,675 2,086 2,529
International Overnight 262 455 810 1,299 1,949 2,703
Day Visitors/VFR 347 454 567 674 782 868
2.5.2. Contribution of tourism to Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP)
From the visitor spend figures, we can predict approximately the contribution of the tourism sector
to GRDP in Central Java and DI Yogyakarta. We forecast a total contribution (direct, indirect and
induced) of USD 3,659 million by 2045, with the proportionate contribution of the sector to rise from
the current level of 0.38% to 0.47% by 2045 under the Business as Usual scenario. Under the Best Case
scenario, a total contribution of USD 5,363 million, with a proportionate contribution of the sector of
0.69%.
These figures appear relatively low as a proportion of GRDP because of the strength of other sectors
in the Central Java and DI Yogyakarta economy (the proportionate contribution of the same number
of visitor arrivals in many other parts of Indonesia could be much higher where the economy is less
strong and diversified). The figures are expressed in more detail in Tables 2.11 and 2.12 below. In the
business-as-usual scenario, the GRDP growth will be 3.83% constant from 2023 to 2045.
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Table 2.11: Forecast Tourism Sector Contribution to GRDP of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta (Business as Usual)
2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Total GRDP (in $ m) 99,898
120,523
145,406
175,425
211,643
275,245
GRDP growth (yoy %) 3.83% 3.83% 3.83% 3.83% 3.83%
Total tourism spend staying in the economy
1,311
1,777
2,406
2,986
3,551
4,157
Direct 432 586 794 985 1,172 1,372
Domestic 231 297 392 469 553 621
International 87 144 234 330 417 540
Day/VFR 115 145 168 186 202 210
Indirect 878 1,190 1,612 2,001 2,379 2,785
Domestic 469 602 796 951 1,123 1,262
International 176 293 475 671 847 1,096
Day/VFR 233 295 341 378 410 427
% Share of GRDP
Total tourism spend staying in the economy 1.31% 1.47% 1.65% 1.70% 1.68% 1.51%
Direct contribution of tourism to GRDP 0.43% 0.49% 0.55% 0.56% 0.55% 0.50%
Domestic 0.23% 0.25% 0.27% 0.27% 0.26% 0.23%
International 0.09% 0.12% 0.16% 0.19% 0.20% 0.20%
Day/VFR 0.11% 0.12% 0.12% 0.11% 0.10% 0.08%
Indirect & induced contribution of tourism to GRDP 0.88% 0.99% 1.11% 1.14% 1.12% 1.01%
Domestic 0.47% 0.50% 0.55% 0.54% 0.53% 0.46%
International 0.18% 0.24% 0.33% 0.38% 0.40% 0.40%
Day/VFR 0.23% 0.24% 0.23% 0.22% 0.19% 0.16%
In the Best Case scenario (Table 2.12), GRDP growth will expand stronger by 3.84% annually in 2023, 3.85% in 2028, 3.86% in 2033, 3.87% in 2038, and 3.84% in 2045. The best-case scenario shows a higher prospect, and the differences between the two scenarios are 0.01% in 2023, 0.03% in 2028, 0.04% in 2033, 0.05% in 2038, and 0.02% in 2045.
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Table 2.12: Forecast Tourism Sector Contribution to GRDP of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta (Best Case)
2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Total GRDP (in USD m)
99,898
120,607
145,704
176,087
212,909
277,187
GRDP growth (yoy %) 3.84% 3.85% 3.86% 3.87% 3.84%
Additional growth with intervention (yoy %) 0.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.02%
Total tourism spend staying in the economy 1,311 1,861 2,704 3,648 4,818 6,100
Direct 432 614 892 1,204 1,590 2,013
Domestic 231 314 438 553 689 835
International 87 150 267 429 643 892
Day/VFR 115 150 187 222 258 287
Indirect 878 1,247 1,812 2,444 3,228 4,087
Domestic 469 638 889 1,122 1,398 1,695
International 176 305 542 870 1,306 1,811
Day/VFR 233 304 380 452 524 582
% Share
Total tourism spend staying in the economy 1.31% 1.54% 1.86% 2.07% 2.26% 2.20%
Direct contribution of tourism to GRDP 0.43% 0.51% 0.61% 0.68% 0.75% 0.73%
Domestic 0.23% 0.26% 0.30% 0.31% 0.32% 0.30%
International 0.09% 0.12% 0.18% 0.24% 0.30% 0.32%
Day/VFR 0.11% 0.12% 0.13% 0.13% 0.12% 0.10%
Indirect & induced contribution of tourism to GRDP 0.88% 1.03% 1.24% 1.39% 1.52% 1.47%
Domestic 0.47% 0.53% 0.61% 0.64% 0.66% 0.61%
International 0.18% 0.25% 0.37% 0.49% 0.61% 0.65%
Day/VFR 0.23% 0.25% 0.26% 0.26% 0.25% 0.21%
The indexed figures for both sets of tables are given in Appendix 3.
We have calculated the growth of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta’s GRDP based on current prices
(Table 2.13), which had a growth rate of 11.05% in 2011, 8.88% in 2012, 10% in 2013, 10.97% in 2014,
9.56% in 2015, 7.63% in 2016, 7.87% in 2017, and 8.29% in 2018. The compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) was 9.20% throughout the period of 2010-2018.13
13 Historical inflation rates for the period are given in Appendix 3.
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Table 2.13: Central Java and DI Yogyakarta GRDP (based on current prices) Year GRDP of C Java (in
IDR million)
GRDP of DIY
(in IDR million)
Total GRDP
(in IDR million)
Growth
2010 623,224,621 64,678,968 687,903,590
2011 692,561,627 71,369,958 763,931,586 11.05%
2012 754,529,436 77,247,861 831,777,297 8.88%
2013 830,016,016 84,924,543 914,940,559 10.00%
2014 922,471,181 92,842,484 1,015,313,665 10.97%
2015 1,010,986,637 101,440,518 1,112,427,156 9.56%
2016 1,087,316,683 109,962,354 1,197,279,036 7.63%
2017 1,172,400,482 119,131,000 1,291,531,482 7.87%
2018 1,268,700,966 129,877,458 1,398,578,424 8.29%
CAGR 9.20%
2.5.3. Impact of Tourism Expenditure on other economic sectors
We have also calculated the impact of tourism growth on other economic sectors in Central Java and
DI Yogyakarta provinces as an outcome of tourism development in the three TDAs.
Our assumptions for impacts on the Agriculture, Wholesale and Retail, and other sectors are as
follows:14
1. The agriculture sector gains $133,000 for every $1 million of direct spending on the tourism
sector.
2. The wholesale and retail sector gains $84,000 for every $1 million of direct spending on the
tourism sector.
3. “Other sectors” are defined as sectors in three different categories:
• The direct contribution of travel and tourism to GDP reflects the ‘internal’ spending on
travel and tourism (in particular spending on travel and tourism by residents and non-
residents for business and leisure purposes) as well as the government’s 'individual'
spending, i.e. travel and tourism services directly linked to visitors, such as cultural
amenities (e.g. museums) or recreational (e.g. trails in national parks). Sectors/industries
in this category are: accommodation services, food and beverages, retail trade,
transportation services, cultural, sports and recreational.
• The indirect contribution includes: travel-and-tourism investment spending, government
‘collective’ travel-and-tourism spending, impacts of purchases from suppliers.
• The induced contribution includes: food and beverages, recreation, clothing, housing,
household goods.
14 Assumptions are based on WTTC (2018), op. cit.
BYP ITMP - Growth Projections and Development Scenarios
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According to the WTTC Indonesia Report, in 2018 the tourism sector contributed around 5.8% to
“other sectors,” and was projected to grow to 6.6% by 2028. From this projection, we can calculate
the expected growth of the tourism sector annually by dividing the difference between the present
and projected rates by the number of years (between 2018 and 2028, i.e., 10 years). This gives a 0.08%
growth rate per year from 2018 to 2028, and allows a projection of the tourism sector’s contributions
to “other sectors”.
The projected annual impacts of tourism spend on different sectors are shown in Tables 2.14 and 2.15
below.
Table 2.14: Tourism Sector Economic Impacts on other sectors (Central Java and DI Yogyakarta) Business as Usual scenario (USD million)
Baseline 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Direct spending on tourism sector 432 586 794 985 1,172 1,372
Induced revenue on other sectors impacted by tourism sector
25 36 52 69 87 109
Induced revenues on agriculture sector 58 78 106 131 156 182
Induced revenues on wholesale and retail sector
36 49 67 83 98 115
Table 2.15: Tourism Sector Economic Impacts on other sectors (Central Java and DI Yogyakarta) Best Case scenario (USD million)
Baseline 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Direct spending on tourism sector 432 614 892 1,204 1,590 2,013
Induced revenue on other sectors impacted by tourism sector
25 38 59 84 118 160
Induced revenues on agriculture sector 58 82 119 160 211 268
Induced revenues on wholesale and retail sector
36 52 75 101 134 169
These calculations indicate that under a Business as Usual / organic growth scenario, there will be various direct and induced impacts annually on other economic sectors in Central Java and DI Yogyakarta while under the Best Case scenario, with interventions to improve tourism attractions and infrastructure will produce higher direct and induced annual impacts.
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2.5.4. The impact of tourism spend on employment
Besides its contribution to other sectors discussed above, the tourism sector also impacts the growth
of employment in Indonesia. As with other aspects of economic forecasting, the absence of spend
breakdowns into discrete economic sectors and associated turnover and employment cost for those
sectors makes employment estimates difficult. Our model applies a spend-to-employment ratio to the
direct spend figures to provide an estimate of direct employment in the tourism and hospitality sector,
and to direct, indirect and induced spend to provide an estimate of total employment. This ratio is
based on data from the WTTC Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2018 Indonesia (Table 2.16).
Table 2.16: Estimated job creation through visitor spend
Total direct contribution to GDP 2017 (IDR bn): Rp. 259,583.00
Total direct employment in tourism 2017 4,585,000
‘Cost' per job (direct) (IDR) Rp. 56,615,703
‘Cost’ per job (direct) ($) USD 4,000
Total direct and indirect contribution to GDP (IDR bn) Rp. 787,100.00
Total direct/indirect employment 12,241,500
Cost per job (IDR) Rp. 64,297,676
Cost per job ($) USD 4,546
It is likely that through time, 'cost' per job will increase as labour costs increase and businesses
introduce greater operational efficiencies. Based on the growth projections in the WTTC report (to
2028), the model assumes that jobs grow at half the rate of expenditure.
Besides its contribution to other sectors discussed above, the tourism sector has also impacted the
growth of employment in Indonesia. According to the 2017 WTTC Travel and Tourism Impacts in
Indonesia Report, it was found that for every $1,000,000 spending on the tourism sector, 198 jobs
were supported (consisting of 34% from direct sectors, 42% from indirect sectors, and 24% from
induced sectors**). These assumptions become the basis on which the projection of tourism sector’s
impact on increasing employment is conducted.
Table 2.17 Tourism Sector’s Impact on Employment - Business as usual scenario (in $ million)
Baseline 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Direct spending in tourism sector
432 586 794 985 1.172 1.372
Domestic 231 297 392 469 553 621
International 87 144 234 330 417 540
Domestic stay 115 145 168 186 202 210
Number of Jobs Provided in tourism sector
85,629 116,093 157,199 195,107 232,042 271,647
Direct 28,976 39,284 53,194 66,021 78,519 91,921
Indirect 36,328 49,252 66,691 82,773 98,442 115,244
Induced 20,326 27,557 37,315 46,313 55,081 64,482
Growth of jobs in tourism sector (yoy%)
6.28% 6.25% 4.42% 3.53% 2.28%
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Table 2.18 Tourism Sector’s Impact on Employment - Best case scenario
Baseline 2023 2028 2033 2038 2045
Direct spending in tourism sector
432 614 892 1.204 1.590 2.013
Domestic 231 314 438 553 689 835
International 87 150 267 429 643 892
Domestic stay 115 150 187 222 258 287
Number of Jobs Provided in tourism sector
85,629 121,588 176,687 238,337 314,797 398,581
Direct 28,976 41,143 59,788 80,649 106,522 134,873
Indirect 36,328 51,583 74,958 101,113 133,550 169,095
Induced 20,326 28,862 41,941 56,575 74,725 94,613
Growth of jobs in tourism sector (yoy%)
7.26% 7.76% 6.17% 5.72% 3.43%
Additional growth of jobs in tourism sector (yoy%)
0.99% 1.51% 1.75% 2.19% 1.15%
*) The sectors are defined based on the categories explained above.
From the numbers shown by the tables, we can conclude that the overall increase in direct spending on the tourism sector in Indonesia will enhance the growth rate of jobs, thereby resulting in higher employment figures.
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3. Development Scenarios This section sets out a vision for the BYP area and three possible development scenarios. Our evaluation of the scenarios will follow in Section 4.
3.1. Vision for Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan In order to achieve the targets as outlined above, determine the broad positioning of the area, guide our direction of travel and communicate our strategy to stakeholders we have prepared a Vision Statement for the Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan tourism destination. This vision should act as an inspiration for:
• Local, Provincial and National Stakeholders • Prospective International and Domestic Visitors • The International Travel Trade
The vision is about changing the perspective held of the region by civil society as a whole, including government officials, academia, local tourism providers, the international travel trade, and the media. The vision must incorporate a new approach to tourism based on a broader and more appealing offer rather than just the present BYP triangle. In this respect we believe that the whole island of Java has tremendous untapped potential as a tourism concept because of high recognition of its name in international markets and the very wide diversity of opportunities it offers within a single island, such that it could emerge as a strong companion destination to Bali. Our vision for the BYP ITMP area is:
‘Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan is the cultural and tourism
Heart of Java, with diversified attractions and strengths that create
a sustainable, resilient and world-class destination.’
This vision is the guiding principle for Borobudur-Yogyakarta-Prambanan to become a world-class
tourism destination, known both in international markets and within Indonesia for its rich and unique
culture and heritage including the iconic UNESCO World Heritage Sites of Borobudur and Prambanan,
the historic City of Yogyakarta, its beautiful scenery, and the friendliness of its people.
Focussing initially on BYP, the selected development strategy will initially reinforce the core areas and subsequently expand into the Joglosemar region and in the longer term to further areas of Java. The overarching objectives of this strategy are to:
• Rejuvenate and expand the product range and attract new markets
• Increase length of stay and visitor spend
• Equitably distribute the economic benefits of tourism
• Ensure a positive balance between the social and cultural costs and benefits of tourism
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The overall aim is to ensure that Java is on a par with the top destinations in Southeast Asia and celebrated as offering a diverse range of tourism attractions and experiences, including new flagship visitor attractions, clusters, and themed trails. As a destination, BYP and surrounding areas will set high standards in environmental and cultural resource management, achieved by public, private and community stakeholders working together to create a quality visitor experience. Within a context of flexibility and adaptability to ensure continuing market responsiveness, these efforts will create a sustainable and resilient tourism destination, as illustrated in Figure 3.1.
Figure 3.1 : The Sphere of Tourism Resilience
Source: ITMP Consultants
Based on this concept, the strategy for the area should be based on the following principles:
1. Sustainability, especially sound management of environmental, cultural and social resources
2. Maximising and spreading the economic benefits of tourism to all levels in society and levels of government
3. Diversification of the tourism product offer
4. Market understanding and responsiveness
5. Resilience, especially flexibility and adaptability to respond to changing market forces
6. Institutional strengthening
7. Rationalisation of institutions and legislation
8. The development of tourism clusters in all three BYP KTAs as an engine of growth for a wider area
9. Short-term improvement of BYP infrastructure and attractions
10. Medium-term expansion of tourism into Joglosemar
11. Long-term development of Java Tourism
12. Monitoring and Review
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3.2. Growth Options for BYP
In comparison to the Lombok and Lake Toba ITMPs being prepared in parallel to BYP, the Central Java/ DI Yogyakarta area presents a different range of constraints and opportunities for development. Unlike Lombok and Toba, both of which are predominantly in the Development or even Discovery phases of the Tourism Area Life Cycle, BYP is relatively mature and has an established market position. Furthermore, much of BYP – especially Yogyakarta and much of Prambanan - is essentially composed of urban or peri-urban areas and with fragmented land ownership, which constrains the opportunities for the development of large sites. Here, we are confronted with issues of urban development and redevelopment as opposed to ‘green field’ planning. Furthermore, the core issue for BYP is not how to attract tourists, as in many respects the destination is already very successful in that endeavour, especially as far as domestic visitors are concerned. The core questions identified in the baseline analysis are:
• How does BYP cope with growth beyond present visitor numbers?
• How does BYP derive greater economic benefit from the tourism sector?
• How does BYP attract a greater number of international visitors? In considering the path forward, we have taken account of the principal issues identified during the Baseline Analysis, summarised as follows:
1. Narrow tourism product offer 2. Over-reliance on cultural tourism 3. Over-tourism at Borobudur WHS 4. Weak appreciation of preserving heritage values and heritage economics 5. Over-reliance on domestic market 6. Poor international standard of attractions and interpretation 7. Poor access in terms of the volume of existing / forecast arrivals 8. Inadequate services infrastructure 9. Deteriorating environmental conditions, including air pollution and depletion of groundwater 10. Inability of local communities to take advantage of economic opportunities, partly through
skills and training gaps 11. Weak institutional frameworks and enforcement 12. Inadequate coordination and planning
Taking into account established tourism planning practice elsewhere and the socio-cultural and political realities of the BYP area, we have prepared in outline three principal Strategic Growth Options offering different approaches to tourism development in BYP and Joglosemar. These are:
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3.2.1. ‘Hub and Spoke’ Option
This option proposes a strategy of continuing along the present path of ad hoc, spontaneous
development based largely upon the existing tourism product offer, notably the ancient, unique but
threatened Borobudur WHS and the ‘street retail with cultural add-ons’ offer of the City of Yogyakarta,
with the Prambanan WHS as an additional attraction. Infrastructural improvements would take place,
and there would be some tourism-related investment interventions mainly located at or near the
current principal attractions. (Figure 3.2.) This option would mean that Yogyakarta remains the
dominant tourism destination in the BYP area with a limited number of sub-centres, especially YIA,
Borobudur KTA, Prambanan KTA, and the DIY Southern Beaches.
Figure 3.2 : ‘Hub and Spoke’ Option
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3.2.2. ‘Cluster and Disperse’ Option
Under this option the principal three destination areas would be managed to form a more balanced engine of tourism for a wider area, focusing primarily on DI Yogyakarta and the south-central part of Central Java. Infrastructural improvements would take place, and limited product diversification would foster clusters of subsidiary visitor attractions around the existing major ones, playing to the existing strengths of cultural resources. (Figure 3.3.) This option focuses on a balanced development of discrete tourism clusters within Kota Yogyakarta and at selected dispersed attraction sites, especially Borobudur TDA, Prambanan TDA, DIY Southern Beaches, YIA, BOB landholding, Wonosari/Gunung Sewu.
Figure 3.3: ‘Cluster and Disperse’ Option
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3.2.3. ‘Heart of Java’ (Multi-Centre Dispersion) Option
The third option proposes that BYP should form the core of a much wider ‘Java Tourism’ product,
developed over the 25-year plan period and offering a diverse spectrum of attractions and becoming
a strong companion to Bali as an international destination. This scenario would see infrastructural
improvements and the development of new flagship attractions as well as interventions designed to
build on and exploit a wide range of existing and potential skills and attractions in BYP, including MICE,
activity and nature-based tourism, beach resorts, performing arts and festivals, local-level cultural
assets including gastronomy, and history from Early Man to the birth of the Indonesian Republic.
(Figure 3.4.). This option would have a stronger focus on the wider area of Joglosemar, including
Solo/Sangiran, Merapi/Merbabu, Wonosari/Gunung Sewu, Ambarawa/Salatiga, Dieng Plateau,
Semarang, Karimunjawa in addition to Borobudur, Prambanan, DIY beaches, YIA Aeropolis.
The overall aim is to build a ‘Heart of Java’ destination as a core for expansion across Java.
Figure 3.4 : ‘Heart of Java’ Option
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Some of the concepts for new visitor attractions and facilities under the ‘Heart of Java’ option are
set-out below:
Kotagede Traditional Market Area Improvements
The key improvements to Pasar Legi Kotagede can be summarised as follows:
• Existing façade – Full preservation of existing façade to reinforce market identity.
• Babon Anim – Revitalise Babon Anim (formerly an electrical substation, built in in the early 1900s) by transforming it into a tourism information centre.
• Monumen Ngejaman – Renovate the Ngejaman Monument and introduce interpretative signage regarding its significance and history.
• Monumen Pacak Suji – Renovate the Pacak Suji Monument to become a welcoming statue for visitors to Kotagede.
• Traditional Crafts – The market should incorporate at least three to four crafts which are traditional to DI Yogyakarta, especially batik and lurik textiles,
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