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An overview of international activities in 2006 and recommendations on how to advance the market
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The Current Situation of the Networked Home Market - Overview of International Activities
Dr. Susan Schwarze VP Marketing and Board Member, OSGi Alliance Marketing Director, ProSyst Software
• Short introduction of the OSGi Alliance and its technology • General Overview of the current status and future trends
– North America – Europe – Asia
• Recommendations
Agenda
• The OSGi Alliance is an open organization – Established in 1999, members worldwide – Membership spans many industries – Voting members treated equally – Membership information available at www.osgi.org
OSGi Alliance
IT Providers ISV
Device Manufacturers
Service Providers
Developers
Auto Makers
Solution Providers
Others
The OSGi Alliance
• Many devices can run the same applications despite their differences in hardware, capacity and performance – The dynamic module system for Java™
• Modular, service-oriented architecture • Defined interfaces • Device Interoperability • Future-proof platform
– Connectivity, easy upgrade and extension – Universal Middleware
• Deployments worldwide by Fortune 100 companies
OSGi Vision and Technology
Hardware
Bundle Bundle
Bundle
Operating System
OSGi Java VM
Bundle (Application)
Driver Driver Driver
= service interface exported and imported by bundles
Mass Market Consumer Requests • Low pricing • Simplicity • Safety and security • Added value
– Remote device control – Service bundlings – Future proof solutions
• Design adaptibility
Status quo in the networked home market • Multi-media content
– Different sources/data, location and access of content – Traditional content provision over internet does not scale (IPTV)
• “Internet of things” – Heterogeneous networks and device accesses – Complex device and network configuration and management – Isolated service solutions, like Google, Yahoo etc. – Slow shift to user-centric creation and consumption environment
• Networked home environment – Monolithic solutions – Complex user interfaces
• Network infrastructure – Competing wired and wireless network solutions
• Business Models – First steps/offers – Monolithic solutions
Broadband access vs. low networked home rate • 226M broadband users worldwide in 2006
- 170M additional subscribers by 2010 • Networked homes worldwide in 2006 (The Diffusion Group, 05)
– USA 17% (~51M homes) – Japan 16% (~ 20M homes) – Germany and Korea: 2% (~ 1,6M and ~1M homes)
• Significant increase in home networks expected – 2004: 35M / 100M installed devices (TDG)
– 2008: 97M - 160M / 1bn installed devices (In-Stat,04 vs. TDG,05) – Germany (38% in 2011; ~ 31M home networks)
The heat is on … "The fight between cable operators and phone companies is heating up as attention turns from the triple-play offering to the quadruple play, a service bundle that includes high-speed data, telephony, TV, and now wireless." (CNET News.com)
– Triple Play totaled $535.0 million in 2005 and is expected to reach $755.6 million in 2012. (Frost)
• Actors – STB vs. Residential Gateway
• Cable operators and phone companies – Internet / Web 2.0
• Content providers, like Google or Yahoo • SW providers, like Apple or MicroSoft
– P2P • Content providers, like Warner Bros. or in2movies.de
Global Development - STB and Hybrid Gateway
Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat 2006
Development in North America • Dominance of cable providers
– High volume of Pay-TV STB and related services – 2009: 36M devices
• Key driver: entertainment – Convergence of Pay-TV, internet and mobile services, Web 2.0, e-mail, SMS, IM – 2010: 30M entertainment home networks (Parks Associates, 06)
• Home networking goes with broadband – 50 to 60% of broadband customers have home networks (Parks Associates, 06) – US regulation: The 1996 Telecommunications Act
• Proprietary products (smarthomeusa.com; Cisco et al.) • US Plug&Play agreements between cable operators and CE manufacturers • “CableHome” certificate (QoS, DRM, simple navigation) plus triple-play
– Industry collaboration: CABA / IHA (Mealtime pilot; IPTV Phase II) • Market Volume:
– 2008: 33.3M home networks (In-Stat, 04) and 2012: 63.8M home networks (Frost, 06)
Development in Europe • High competition between the various actors
– First solutions in the market • White goods, CE, triple-play offers • Additional interest in energy, e-health and monitoring services
– Open for hybrid STB • 2009: Between 12 and 14M devices each (Pay-TV; Digital Terrestrial, RG)
• Convergence with key driver entertainment – EC funded projects (6th program “Ambient Intelligence”/ “Enabling Technology”:
3.625bn Euro) • TEAHA, AMIGO, ePerSpace, MEDIANET etc. • CENELEC SmartHouse Program (code of practice), ETSI
– Industrial collaboration • OSGiA, HGI, NEM, DLNA, UPnP, KNX etc.
• Market volume: • 2008: ~ 22M home networks (In-Stat, 04) • Germany 2010: Euro 13.3bn for home networks in total (Soreon Research, 05)
Development in Asia • Simple PC networks with broadband access
– Declining pricing, higher data transfer, governmental support, more complex home networks
• First solutions in the market – White goods, CE, first triple-play projects
• Additional interest in energy, e-health and monitoring services – Open for hybrid STB
• 2009: Pay TV STB and RG devices (19.5M and 18.6M) • Push factors
– Societal aspects – Olympic Games 2012
• Market Volume: – 2008: 35.5M home networks (In-Stat, 04) – 2009: US$ 21 bn for home networks (In-Stat, 06)
Development in Asia – Japan & South Korea • Japan
– Rapid spread of broadband and increasing interest in technology • ECHONET, DLNA, UOPF, OSGiA, RFID
– First product launches, white goods series based on ECHONET • Leading Toshiba: Feminity Series: 2500 products since 2002
– First networked home trials (ICT home) – Rising interest in entertainment and anticipated export to Chinese market
Divergent forecasts: 5M networked homes in 2015 / 30M in 2010 • South Korea
– Up to 90% of the population will have home networks in 2011 (44,1M) – Rapid spread of broadband and increasing interest in technology
• Web 2.0, OSGiA, DLNA, HNCP, ECHELON, RFID/USN – Strong interest in entertainment services
• Internet and mobile phones as the main access points - especially for the younger generation
– Strong governmental support for building automation (Dig.Media City/U-Port)
Japan - Next Generation “ICT Home”
Service Providers
B B
B B
B B
Home Appliance System
Sensor System
PC System
Audio-visuall System
Service Gateway
OSGi Framework
PI B
Center System
OSGi Service Aggregation Platform(OSAP)
External Access
NTT Extension
B B B
B B
Network (FLETS, OCN, NGN, etc.)
Control
Bundle
Telco System
South Korea – Digital Media City / U-Port • Part of Digital Media City
– 20-story IT center to open in Seoul by 2007 – Research and development hub for the international IT industry – IT center to attract multinational IT enterprises and R&D firms in Seoul by
2007 – Total office space of 19,140 square meters,
• Designed to offer comprehensive support facilities, incl. a joint manufacturing facility to help save equipment expenses
• U-Port – Project: KT & City of Busan – Expectation: US$ 15 bn market and 610,000 jobs by 2010 – Ubiquitous tracking and management of cargo – Intelligent traffic control system – U-Convention Center for visitors
Conclusions • Emerging market with high revenue forecasts
– Fierce competition, declining pricing, higher data transfer, broader variety of connecting devices, more complex home networks
• Divergent governmental support • Pay-TV STB in North America vs. hybrid STB in Asia and Europe
– Additional service offerings • Broadband stimulates home network market
– Key driver entertainment • Content mobility • Seamless integration of different sources on heterogeneous devices • User-centric session based services
• Hurdles to overcome: – Complexity and heterogenity – Extended home environments (family federation, variety of lifestyles) – Safety and Security – Pricing
Recommendations Foster development of services/applications and offer service bundling
– Entertainment • Audio/Video: today still low consumer involvement
– Health Care • Interaction between hospital/doctor, pharmacy and patient
– Office • Access of information in different environments using diverse devices
• Foster security and safety – Protected privacy vs. remote control/administration – Flexible security mechanisms
• Dependent on scenario and communication partner • Improve ease-of-use
– Elderly and disabled people – Mass market
• Flexible solutions that are future-proof – Modular assembly (HW/SW) instead of monolithic product solutions
• Cost- and time effective development • Integration of today`s islands
– Universal middleware – Business concepts
• Regular checkups – Added value – Pricing – Simplicity
• IP flow /Patents – Establish a joint IP policy for all work products where public funds are used
• Uniform and fair royalty payment system OR • Code: Apache 2.0 licensing / Specifications: Royalty free declaration
Recommendations
Thank You Dr. Susan Schwarze
VP Marketing and Member of the Board mailto:s.schwarze@prosyst.com
OSGi Alliance�Bishop Ranch 6�
2400 Camino Ramon, Ste 375�San Ramon, CA 94583�
Phone: +1.925.275.6625�FAX: +1.925.886.3696�
www.osgi.org
Future trends • Multi-media content
– Content mobility – Seamless integration of different sources on heterogeneous devices
• Open to different network technologies/protocols (abstraction layers) • “Internet of things”
– Fixed-mobile convergence / networked mobility – User-centric session-based services – Multi-provider
• Extended Home environment – Broader variety of lifestyles – Family federation – Uniform and user-friendly interfaces – Flexible solutions on demand (“roaming”)
Future Trends (ctd.) • Network infrastructure
– Combination of wired and wireless technologies • Improved wireless technology (longer service life, scalability, ad-hoc networking) • Further development of wired technologies (KNX, EIB, X10 etc.) • Business Models
• Service Payment-Concepts • Application level
• Preference for renting models • Monthly fix-price, pay-per-use payment or combination
• Device level • Preference for one-time payment • Optional additional service fee
– Broad range of portals • Service Aggregator vs. third parties
– Variety of gateway solutions • Residential Gateway(s) and Virtual Gateway(s)
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