1990s hypothesis

1990s hypothesis

• Computer networks can improve the quality of life in developing nations at a relatively low cost

• Marginal impact increased by a lack of alternative ICT and transportation

• Raising the quality of rural life will reduce pressure for urban migration

We have done

• Training• ICT readiness assessments• Pilot projects• Conferences and workshops

Training

• Internet Society/World Bank Developing Nations Workshops

• trained over 2,500 networking pioneers from every developing nation but North Korea.

• Cisco Networking Academy: over 10,000 academies in 155 countries

E-readiness assessments

• 10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies• 8 case study methodologies• 137 nations have been assessed at least

once• 55 nations have been assessed at least 5

times• 10 nations have been assessed at least 10

times

Mosaic dimensions

Successful Applications

• Education• Health care• E-commerce• Democracy and human rights• E-government• News and entertainment

Many successful pilots

E-government

Entertainment and connection to the outside world

N-Logue rural Kiosk

• Remote medicine• Remote veterinary• Remote agricultural

advice• E-government• E-mail• digital photography• desktop publishing• Telephony• Break even at $75/mo.

E-choupal home page

E-choupal services

• Login• Weather• Crop best practices• Market related information• Agricultural queries• Suggestion box• Farmer profile• Government schemes• News

Cuban Youth Computer Clubs

• 350 YCCs• Geographically

dispersed• Education• Games• Email• News

YCC mobile unit

YCC mobile unit

Where are we?

• Many applications have been demonstrated.

• The Internet is on the “radar screen”• But the digital divide persists• Capital is not available

The “digital divide” persists

Internet subscribers, 2005

Income Population Subscribers Per 100

Low 2,338 37,408 1.6

Lower middle 2,430 150,660 6.2

Upper middle 576 120,384 20.9

High 1,001 366,366 36.6

World 6,345 951,750 15

Cannot attract private capital• Cost of 20 hours access as percent of

average monthly GNI per capita (2003)

Low income nations 258.3

Lower middle income 32.2

Upper middle income 13.3

High income 1.7

VSAT– the only way to connect most rural areas

A grand challenge

Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.

Grand challenges

• I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth.

John F. Kennedy, 1961 • That's one small step for a man, one giant

leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969

An unconnected nation

• No national backbone network • No residential connectivity• No commercial application• Character-oriented email and news primary

applications• Connectivity only in a few universities

• The US in 1989

Fiber Backbone, Mesh, POPs

FiberAfrica• 70,000 Km fiber core• 30,000 Km fiber spurs• Wireless to fiber• Reach 400 million• Walking/bicycling distance• 1 billion dollars

Daunting, but with precedents

Cost context, $billion

• Manhattan project: 1.889• US Interstate Highway system: 128.9• Apollo program: 25.4• GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete• Baseball stadium: .581• B2 bomber: 2.2• US pet food: 10 per year• G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new)