12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER IUMI 2010 ZURICH Facts and Figures Committee Report Cedric CHARPENTIER Chairman,...

12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

IUMI 2010 ZURICH

Facts and Figures Committee Report

Cedric CHARPENTIERChairman, F&F Committee

C.U.O. Cargo AXA Corporate SolutionsSeptember 13, 2010

212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

• Dieter Berg - Germany

• Cédric Charpentier - France, Chairman

• Darren Farr - U.K.

• Pamela Frood - U.K.

• Philip Graham - U.K.

• Patrizia Kern - Switzerland

• Henry Newman - U.S.A.

• Astrid Seltmann - Nordic, Secr. & Vice Chairman

• Massimo Spadoni - Italy

Report of the F&F Committee Committee Members

312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Report of the F&F Committee Committee Members

• Javier Alonso - Spain

• Dieter Berg - Germany

• Darren Farr - U.K.

• Pamela Frood - U.K.

• Philip Graham - U.K.

• Vivian Ho - Hong Kong

• Patrizia Kern - Switzerland, Chairman

• Patrick Lecerf - France

• Henry Newman - U.S.A.

• Astrid Seltmann - Nordic, Secr. and Vice Chairman

• Massimo Spadoni - Italy

412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

• Spring StatisticsSpring Statistics Spring meetingSpring meeting

Report of the F&F Committee Documentations

• Hull, Energy and Cargo Fact SheetsHull, Energy and Cargo Fact Sheets ConferenceConference

• Global shipping market trendsGlobal shipping market trends ConferenceConference

• Global marine insurance reportGlobal marine insurance report ConferenceConference

• Hull repair cost index Working GroupHull repair cost index Working Group

512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Global Shipping Market Trends

Cedric CHARPENTIERChairman, F&F Committee

C.U.O. Cargo AXA Corporate SolutionsSeptember 13, 2010

612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Conclusion 2009 = Intro 2010

• Global tradeGlobal trade:– 2009 hit the bottom– 2010 weak recovery

• Sustainable recovery?Sustainable recovery?– still not clear where from and when

• Shipping industry:Shipping industry:– fighting for survival with at least 2 year expected depressed

market ahead– deep modification of the face of the world fleet expected– but medium and long term prospects are intact

• Numerous and deep impacts on the marine Numerous and deep impacts on the marine insurance industryinsurance industry

712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

After the sharpest decline for more than 70 years, global economy is on its way to

recovery…

812 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Sharp recovery of Global Economy expectedin 2010… but already a peak?

ANNUAL GDP GROWTH 2001 - 2011

World

Advanced economies

Emerging and developing economies

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

+6,4%

+4,3%

+2,4%+2,5%

-0,6%

-3,2%

+6,8%

+4,6%

+2,6%

912 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

World Trade in volume is set to vigorouslyrebound in 2010...

Volume of World Merchandise Export2005 - 2010

Annual % Change

+ 6,0%

+ 9,5%

+ 2,1%

+ 8,5%+ 6,5%

-12,2%-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Years

%

1012 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

..combined with the recent resurgencein Commodity prices…

REAL COMMODITIES PRICES 2001-2010

(Index 100=2005)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil

AgriculturalRaw Mat

Metal

1112 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

…result in a positive outlook for Global Trade in value terms: return to pre-crisis level in 2011?

WORLD TRADE VALUES 2001 - 2011 (in billion dollars )

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

+ 16%

- 23%

+ 16%

+ 8%

1212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

The shipping industry reacted strongly to 2009 turmoil but short term prospects remain

challenging…

1312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Whilst World Trade collapsed, world fleet grewby 7% in 2009 generating strong overcapacity…

WORLD MERCHANT FLEET of ships of 300gt and overEvolution of GT, DWT and Number of ships between 1995 and 2010 (1st of Jan)

Nb Ships+ 29%

mGT+ 92%

mDWT+ 81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

…and World Fleet is still expected to grow in2010 by another 7%.

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

mD

wt

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

*

World Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1999-2010* (in mDwt)

Reductions Additions

* Est. based on Q1

1512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

The market will have to absorb 40% of existingfleet in the next 3 years…

100.1 129.3

177.8

222.8

263.5

Tankers

BulkCarriers

LNG/LPG

Container

Others

Generalcargo

460.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

mD

WT

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Apr. 20

10

ORDERBOOK - Evolution by type of shipsin million of DWT

363.8

570.4 566.7

1612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

…resulting in a quite gloomy and unstablefreight market.

FREIGHT MARKET (indices by month) - January 2001 to April 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)

General Freight Index

Grain Freight Index

Index 1972 = 100

1275

177

1712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER

Conclusion

• Worldwide economy and Global Trade:Worldwide economy and Global Trade:

• Stronger recovery in 2010 than expected…

• …but uncertainty beyond :

• a strong recovery, a long lasting crisis or a double-dip?

• or all of them depending on the geographical area?

• At least 2 years to reach pre-crisis level

• Shipping industryShipping industry

• Despite strong reactions…

• …overcapacity is here to stay and casts a cloud overthe years to come for the shipping industry

• Numerous and deep impacts marine insuranceNumerous and deep impacts marine insurance