1 oenb.info@oenb.at Methodological changes in Austrias balance of payments Impact on trade in goods...

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Methodological changes in Austria’s balance of payments

Impact on trade ingoods and services statistics

Patricia WalterOesterreichische Nationalbank, Balance of

Payments DivisionSeptember 2007

Oesterreichische National bank

Agenda

• A new balance of payments system: motivation and concepts

• Cooperation with Statistics Austria

• New survey on trade in services

• First results

• Future Outlook

A new balance of payments system: Motivation • Until 2006, compilation of the Austrian balance of

payments via a MFI based settlement system

– Complemented by surveys for the financial account– Compilation of trade in services completely settlement

based, except for travel

• Growing negative effects on data quality and compilation efficiency

A new balance of payments system: Motivation

– Common currency in the Euro area blurres the distinction between national and foreign transactions

• Travel item: new survey based compilation already introduced with the introduction of the Euro

– Step wise development of a single Euro payments area diminishes the useability of payments for statistical purposes

– Intra-company settlement systems (cash centres) loosen the connection between payments and transactions, concerning volumes as well as regional structures

A new balance of payments system: Concepts• In January 2006, OeNB switched to a direct reporting

system

– From this key date onwards • No settlement data have been available any more• Complete data collection substituted by surveys

• Main components– Sample design varies with type of transaction and

industrial sector– Reporting population consists of about 7.000 economic

entities, from these about 5.000 report on trade in services– Legal basis attributes the central bank the same status as

to the NSI, giving access to registers and administrative data

• First results

• Future Outlook

Cooperation with Statistics Austria

• Basic agreement on cooperation between OeNB and NSI, Statistics Austria– Concentration on the respective expertise– Statistics Austria in real economies and the OeNB in financial

markets– „Cooperation framework agreement“, yardstick

„memorandum of understanding“ between ECB and EUROSTAT

• Concrete tasks are laid down in service provider contracts like for compiling exports and imports of services– Statistics Austria collects data from non financial companies– OeNB from insurance companies and banks

• Synergies are gained within the scope of external statistics– Including the harmonization with National Accounts

non-financial corporations

financial corporations

general government

private households

nonprofit institutions

serving households

CURRENT ACCOUNT

Services

Income

employment income

investment inmcome

Current Transfers

CAPITAL ACCOUNT

FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

Direct Investment

Portfolio Investment

Financial Derivatives

Other Investment

Official Reserves

Errors and Omissions

Respondents of trade in services

In % of total

Trade in services only 70,0%

Trade in services and one category of financial transactions 21,8%

Trade in services and two categories of financial transactions 7,9%

Trade in services and three categories of financial transactions 0,4%

Intra/Extrastat

„XINTIP“

Matrix

Current Account

Verification

Estimation

Services Survey

AdministrativeData

Travel Survey

Aggregation

Data Base

BoP-Sets

Transmission

EUROSTAT

CA x Country x SectorC/D/N

StatisticsAustria

Services SurveyInvestment

Income

Aggregation

• First results

• Future Outlook

• Concentration survey for identifying the statistical population

– Carried out within the scope of Austria‘s structural business survey 2003 (EG, EURATOM no. 58/97)

• Covered 32,247 out of 266,258 Austrian business units • Service industry: different thresholds in turnover between € 750.000 and

1,5 Mio. • Manufacturing industry: threshold in number of employees > 20

– Not included i.a.• Financial corporations• Public and private services (education, health, welfare; )

– Gap estimates• Settlement data for unit-non-response• Imputation of remaining reporting deficits (MEDIAN, turnover and sector

classes)• Estimates for businesses below survey thresholds (Regression, services

exports and imports to turnover)

New survey on trade in services: population analysis

Businesses with

services exports

Services exports

in € 1,000

Businesses with

services imports

Services imports

in € 1,000 Net

Survey data 5,214 17,334,917 4,973 13,718,530 3,616,387

Totals after estimates 47,137 20,132,846 43,641 15,739,222 4,393,624

New survey on trade in services: survey design

Number of businesses

Coverage in % of concentration survey

Coverage in % of total

Services exports

Services imports

Services exports

Services imports

4.800 99 99 89 91

– Thresholds depending on type of industrial sector• € 200,000 or 50,000 for services exports as well as imports

per year

– Two different reporting concepts• Quarterly report on services exports and imports regarding

partner countries and classification of services• Quarterly report on services exports and imports regarding

partner countries together with yearly report on the classification of services

– Transportation– Travel– Communication services– Construction services– Insurance services– Financial services– Computer and information services– Royalties and licence fees– Other business services – Personal, cultural and recreational services– Government Services, n.i.e.– Employment income, debet– Current transfers

New survey on trade in services: survey design

• Transportation: cif/fob correction

Until 2006 Credit, c Debet, d Net

Goods, G Gc Gd -Td Gc – Gd + Td

Transport services, T Tc Td Tc - Td

Services not allocated,S.N.A. S.N.A.c S.N.A.d + Td S.N.A.c – S.N.A.d – Td

New survey on trade in services: changes in concepts

Since 2006:Te = Volume x distance x freight rate, Te < Td Credit, c Debet, d Net

Goods, G Gc Gd -Te Gc – Gd + Te

Transport services, T Tc - Tec Td + Ted Tc – Tec – Td – Ted

• Insurance services

– Calculation of insurance service charge, for exports and imports

• Gross premium – gross claim = net premium per country and period

• (gross premium – gross claim)/gross premium = x[%] long-term

• Gross premium * x% = insurance service charge per country and period

– Database harmonized with Financial Market Authority (EU regulation no. 1225/1999 to 1228/1999)

– Mirror Data are available for imports

• Financial services

– Completely corrected for financial derivatives

• Government services

– Inclusion of compensation of employees by international organizations

• Methodological changes I

– Compilation until 2006: statistics of overnight stays and guest interviews, settlement data

– Since 2006: hyprid type of compilation– New seasonality due to change of time of recording: from

time of settlement to travel

• Methodological changes II

– Distinction between different components – Inclusion of expenditures from seasonal workers and

students– Exclusion of payments from foreign and illegal workers– Correction for national components, especially for package

New compilation of the travel item

• First results

• Future Outlook

• Table 1

– First results for 2006 and provisional recalculations for 2005

First results: data and recalculations

Methodological effectsCURRENT ACCOUNT gross volumes decrease, net value increases CURRENT ACCOUNT

Goods imports increase, net value decreases GoodsServices gross volumes decrease, net value increases Services

Transportation imports increase, exports and net value decrease Transportationof which: Passenger transport exports decrease of which: Passenger transport

Sea transport Sea transport

Air transport exports decrease Air transport

Other transport imports increase Other transport

Travel imports decrease, net value increases TravelCommunication services Communication services

Construction services Construction services Construction abroad Construction abroad

Construction in the compiling economy Construction in the compiling economy

Insurance services gross volumes decrease Insurance servicesFinancial services gross volumes decrease Financial services

Computer and information services exports and net value increase Computer and information servicesRoyalties and licence fees Royalties and licence feesOther business services exports and net value increase Other business services

Merchanting Merchanting

Other trade related services Other trade related services

Operational leasing services Operational leasing services

Miscellaneous business, professional and technical services exports increase

Miscellaneous business, professional and technical services

Personal, cultural and recreational services imports increase, net value decreases

Personal, cultural and recreational services

Government services, n.i.e. exports and net value decrease Government services, n.i.e.

Services not allocated -Income Income

Compensation of employees Compensation of employeesInvestment income Investment income

Direct investment Direct investment

Portfolio investment Portfolio investment

Other investment Other investment

Current transfers Current transfers

Public sector gross volumes decrease Public sectorPrivate sector imports decrease, net value increases Private sector

CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ACCOUNTFINANCIAL ACCOUNT FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

Errors and omissions Errors and omissions

Austrian Balance of Payments

First Results: methodological effects2005 2006

First Results: structural findings

2003-2005 2006Credit Credit

1 Other business services + s.n.a. 36,0% 1 Travel 36,8%2 Travel 31,4% 2 Other business services 26,0%3 Transportation 19,1% 3 Transportation 22,8%4 Insurance services 3,8% 4 Communication services 3,0%5 Financial services 2,6% 5 Construction services 2,6%6 Construction services 2,3% 6 Insurance services 2,4%7 Communication services 1,7% 7 Computer and information services 2,2%8 Government Services, n.i.e. 1,6% 8 Financial services 1,7%9 Personal, cultural and recreational services 0,7% 9 Government Services, n.i.e. 1,1%10 Computer and information services 0,6% 10 Royalties and licence fees 0,9%11 Royalties and licence fees 0,4% 11 Personal, cultural and recreational services 0,5%

Ranking RankingServices Classification Services Classification

• First results

• Future Outlook

• Step wise recalculation of historic data back to 1995 (forthcoming year end 2007)

• Revision of the reporting population for the survey on trade in services

– Recurrent concentration survey on the basis of Austria‘s structural business survey

– Cooperation with the Statistics Department of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce

• Step wise realization of FATS

• Connection of trade in services data with structural business statistics

• Survey among households on imports of services

Future outlook

1 oenb.info@oenb.at Methodological changes in Austrias balance of payments Impact on trade in goods...

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