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2
Overview
• Structure of Decisions
• Value-Focused Thinking– Definition– Benefits– Obstacles– Requirements
• Summary
3
Structure of Decisions
ValuesWhat do we want?
InformationWhat do we know?
AlternativesWhat can we do?
Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities
5
Change Thinking
Alternative-Focused Thinking Value-Focused Thinking
Initial
AlternativesEvaluate
Values
New & Initial
Alternatives
Evaluate
(Values)
If you want better decisions,
find better alternatives!
6
Benefits of Value Focused Thinking
Thinking About Values
creatingalternatives
guidingstrategicthinking
inter-connectingdecisions
guidinginformation collection
facilitatinginvolvement
identifying decisionopportunities
evaluatingalternatives
improvingcommunication
uncovering hiddenobjectives
Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.
7
VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking
Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
• Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making• Strategic objectives are stable over time• Means to obtain these objectives vary over time
8
SPACECAST 2020
Value Model
Missions from JCS PUB 3-14
FORCEENHANCEMENT
FORCEAPPLICATION
SPACECONTROL
SPACESUPPORT
CONTROL & EXPLOIT SPACE
9
Greg Parnell's Professional Values
Be an excellent teacher & mentor
Publish important research & be in
demand as consultant
Perform significant professional service
Be an internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of
Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research)
10
VFT: Facilitates Involvement in Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions
Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
Focuses stakeholder interaction on values• Discussions more productive• Key issues become explicit• Postpones discussion of alternatives
11
VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives
Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4
StrategicObjective
• Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover• Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives
Objective 1
12
VFT: Improving Communications
• Facilitates communications and understanding between all stakeholders• Avoids technical language of many specialties
Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
13
VFT: Decision Opportunities
• Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives• Objectives not being attained• Objectives that are or will be degrading
• Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value
Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
14
Greg Parnell's Professional Values
Develop world classdecision & risk analysis courses
Develop outstandingoperations research courses
Teach undergraduatecourses that attract
operations research students
Provide sound academic & professional advice
Be an excellent teacher& mentor
Work on challengingproblems
Attract excellentMS thesis students
Be a member
of PhD committees
Build strong researchprogram
Obtain funding for
summer & students
Get research & consultingwork published
Publish important research& be in demand as consultant
Maintain & build friendshipsUniversityCommunity
Nationally/Internationally
Perform university ServiceMath Sciences Dept
H & S SchoolVCU
Support INFORMS/MORSProfessional Objectives
Local/National
Increase program awareness - Locally
Nationally/Internationally
Build network to helpgraduates get jobs
Enhance Math Sciences (OR)undergraduate &
Perform significantprofessional service
Be a internationally recognized decision analyst& Professor of Mathematical Sciences
(Operations Research)
Develop research agenda & thesis
research topics
graduate programs
15
VFT: Evaluating Alternatives
Objective 1
Measure of Merit A
Subobjective A
Measure of Merit B
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit C
Subobjective C
Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
50%30%20%
30%40%30%
Develop value model to evaluate alternatives• Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives• Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of achieving subobjectives• Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives
16
SPACECAST 2020 Value Model
Weighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight X Task Weight X Mission Weight
FORCEAPPLICATION
NAVIGATION &POSITIONING
INTELLIGENCE &SURVEILLANCE
1000
100
25
10
INITIAL LINKSIN THEATER
CRISISAVAILABILITY
3000
1000
600
300
DECOMPRESSEDMB/SEC/LINK
CAPACITY
US + INTNTL
ALL US
ALL AF
FEW
COMMON-USESYSTEMS
INTEROPERABILITY
PLATOON
BATTALION
DIVISION
CORPS
LEVEL OFSECURE LINKS
SECURITY
COMMUNICATIONS WEATHERMONITORING &
CONTROL
MAPPING,CHARTING, &
GEODESY
WARNING,PROCESSING, &DISSEMINATION
FORCEENHANCEMENT
SPACECONTROL
SPACESUPPORT
CONTROL & EXPLOIT SPACE
0.35 0.35 0.20 0.10
0.20 0.25 0.22
0.19
0.08 0.180.07
0.37 0.22 0.22
MEASURE OF MERIT
FORCEQUALITY
ORDER OF MAGNITUDE
CURRENT
IMPROVEMENT:MINOR
SIGNIFICANT
CAPABILITY
MISSION
TASK
OBJECTIVE
(0.0)
(0.1)
(0.5)
(0.9)
17
• Value model indicates the important information • Collect information to
• Create better alternatives • Credibly evaluate alternatives
VFT: Guiding Information Collection
Objective 1
Measure of Merit A
Subobjective A
Measure of Merit B
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit C
Subobjective C
Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
50%30%20%
30%40%30%
18
VFT: Creating Alternatives
Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
• Advocates will propose several alternatives • Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value
Alternative AAlternative B
Alternative BAlternative C
20% 30% 50%
19
• Value model assessments of alternatives • Objective• Traceable • Robust
VFT: Interconnecting Decisions
Objective 1
Measure of Merit A
Task A
Measure of Merit B
Task B
Measure of Merit C
Task C
Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
50%30%20%
30%40%30%
20
SPACECAST 2020
Operational Analysis Summary
Space Modular Systems
Ionospheric Forecasting
Space Traffic
Control (SPATRACS)
Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV)
Super GPS
Weather Forecasting System
Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW)
Global Surveillance, Recon, & Targeting System (GSRT)
Solar Mirror
High Power Microwave
Particle Beam
Weather Control
TAV High Energy Laser (HEL)
Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle
(Sensitivity to Weights)
Space Solar Monitoring
1
2
3
4
5
VALU
E
TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE
AsteroidDetection
21
Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking
• Alternative Focused Thinking
• “Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post”
• Worrying too much about the “weights”
• Lack of an environment that encourages creativity
22
Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking
• Study leadership support• Support from study team• Experienced analysis team
23
SummaryVFT offers significant benefits
Thinking About Values
creatingalternatives
guidingstrategicthinking
inter-connectingdecisions
guidinginformation collection
facilitatinginvolvement
identifying decisionopportunities
evaluatingalternatives
improvingcommunication
uncovering hiddenobjectives
Value-Focused Thinking helps us use our strategic objectives to create value
Value Model Has a Central Role
Objective 1
Measure of Merit A
Subobjective A
Measure of Merit B
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit C
Subobjective C
Objective 2 Objective 3
StrategicObjective
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