1 Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still Transforming December 11,...

Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still

Transforming

December 11, 2009

Some Food for Thought

• What are the basic problems the world system seems to be facing at the moment?

• Are global imbalances here to stay or will they be eliminated surely but slowly or even better quite fast?

• What will the engine of growth for the world economy or are there none in sight at the moment?

• How likely is decoupling in the near future?• How is an important and sizeable emerging market like Turkey

affected in this crisis and are there any stories that come from hers?

• Are there any paradigmatic shifts in the way analysts may be thinking about growth dynamics in emerging markets?

• What does the fiscal picture look like for developed and emerging market economies going forward ?

GDP Growth

Source: TURKSTAT

6.2%5.3%

9.4%8.4%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GDP Growth

Source: TURKSTAT

GDP Growth

6.3%5.7%8.1%

3.8%3.2%4.2%

2.8%1.0%

-6.5%-7.9%

-14.7%-16%

Private Consumption Private Investment

Public Consumption Public Investment

Public and Private Sectors’ Contributions to Growth

Source: TURKSTAT

Net Exports’ Contribution to Growth

Source: TURKSTAT

Exports Imports Net Exports

Contributions to Growth

Source: TURKSTAT

2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3

Private Consumption Public Consumption Public Investment

Private Investment Change in Stocks Net Exports

Sectors’ Contributions

Source: TURKSTAT

Agriculture Industry Services

Source: TURKSTAT

2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3

Construction Trade Transportation Financial Intermediation Services Other Services

Private Fixed Capital Investments

Source: TURKSTAT

Mil. TL Mil $ Growth (Real)2002 43,391 28,563 16.9%2003 62,005 41,842 23.6%2004 97,378 68,291 36.1%2005 115,064 85,593 16.2%2006 143,299 99,817 15.0%2007 155,442 119,808 5.3%2008 152,229 118,927 -10.0%

2009 H1 63,228 39,243 -31.6%

16.2% 15.0%

-10.0%

-31.6%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 H1

Growth Forecasts

Source: YK Economic Research

Medium Term Real GDP Growth Forecast

Annual forecastsQuarterly forecasts.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

3.2% 4.5%

Industrial Production (YoY Growth)

Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

-13.3%

-20.8%

-18.5%

-17.3%-17.8%

-23.8%-21.3%

-10.3%

-17.8%

-3.7%2.8%

5.1%5.1% -0.7%

-19.0%

-21.4%

-18.5%

-14.7%

-23.1%

-12.9%

-9.0%-6.3%

IPI Eff. Days-Adjusted IPI

Industrial Production : MoM Growth ( Seasonally and Effective Days Adjusted Series )

-1.28%

-4.97%

-12.77%

-1.53%

2.88%1.42%

-4.09%

-0.01%

-2.73%

-0.27%-1.73%-2.34%

Effective Days Adjusted and SA IPI MoM

Industrial Production : Sector Growth Rates

Sectors' YoY Growth Rates

Industrial Production :September / Contributions

Contributions

Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09

Food&Bev. Textiles Wearing App. Chemicals

Basic Metal Machinery&Eq. Motor Vehicles Other Man. Industry

Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level

Production Loss (in terms of one month's output

multiple) Months in Crisis

Average Production Loss

per MonthSlope of LR Trend

before the Hit Slope of Recovery

Gap ( Potential vs.

Current)Adjusted Recovery

Slope First HitBegining of the

Recovery

Total Industry 2.98 17 17.5% 0.0306 0.0931 0.843 0.0785 Jun-08 Apr-09

Mining and Quarrying 1.73 16 10.8% 0.0425 0.0909 0.927 0.0843 Jul-08 Mar-09Coal Mi. and Ext. of Peat 1.85 16 11.6% 0.0771 0 0.852 0.0000 Jul-08 N/ACrude Pet. and Nat. Gas 0.13 3 4.4% 0.1125 0 0.977 0.0000 Dec-08 Jan-09Metalic Ore Mining 2.19 12 18.3% 0.1609 0.419 0.993 0.4160 Nov-08 Mar-09

Other Mining 2.04 12 17.0% 0.0127 0.2846 0.982 0.2794 Nov-08 Jun-09Manufacturing Industry 3.10 17 18.2% 0.0261 0.1023 0.851 0.0871 Jun-08 Apr-09Food&Bev. 0.57 11 5.2% 0.0141 0 1.026 0.0000 Dec-08 Oct-09Tobacco 0.87 8 10.9% 0.0137 0.058 0.924 0.0536 Mar-09 Jun-09

Textiles 1.26 11 11.4% -0.0210 0.0822 1.024 0.0842 Dec-08 Mar-09Wearing App. 2.29 17 13.5% -0.0056 0.0148 0.905 0.0134 Jul-08 Apr-09Leather 1.21 12 10.1% -0.0104 0.0767 0.970 0.0744 Nov-08 Jan-09Wood 1.84 15 12.3% 0.0829 0.1658 0.956 0.1585 Jul-08 Mar-09

Paper 1.71 16 10.7% 0.0305 0.06 0.917 0.0550 Jul-08 Mar-09Publishing 1.70 16 10.6% 0.0206 0.0315 0.886 0.0279 Jul-08 Jan-09Ref. Petroleum 3.51 13 27.0% 0.0061 0.0303 0.712 0.0216 Jul-08 Apr-09Chemicals 2.74 20 13.7% 0.0453 0.1312 0.891 0.1169 Mar-08 Jan-09

Plastics 3.13 17 18.4% 0.0289 0.1552 0.888 0.1379 Jun-08 Mar-09Non-Metalic 2.82 17 16.6% 0.0182 0.0583 0.914 0.0533 Jun-08 Apr-09Basic Metal 4.04 16 25.2% 0.0459 0.0622 0.753 0.0468 Jul-08 Jan-09Metal 4.88 18 27.1% 0.0385 0.1192 0.737 0.0878 May-08 May-09

Machinery&Eq. 2.94 16 18.4% 0.0201 0.1967 0.908 0.1785 Jul-08 Apr-09Electrical Mach. 3.80 15 25.3% 0.0590 0.2826 0.877 0.2477 Aug-08 Apr-09Radio, TV 0.70 7 10.1% -0.0056 0 1.431 0.0000 Sep-08 Feb-09Medical&Opt. Ins. 3.94 16 24.6% 0.0831 0.0855 0.805 0.0688 Jul-08 Mar-09

Motor Vehicles 6.91 18 38.4% 0.2619 0.2483 0.586 0.1455 May-08 Mar-09Other Trans. Eq. 3.72 10 37.2% 0.1481 0.2919 0.598 0.1747 Jan-09 Aug-09Furniture 3.60 19 18.9% 0.0791 0.1799 0.782 0.1406 Apr-08 Mar-09El., Gas and Wat 1.40 14 10.0% 0.0360 0.0396 0.899 0.0356 Sep-08 May-09

Total I

Coal M

. of P

Pet. a

nd Nat

uring In

dustry

Food&Bev

Tobacco

Textil

Publishin

Ref. P

Chemic

Furnitu

El., G

at0.0%

Production Loss (in terms of one month's output multiple)

Average Production Loss per Month

Slope of LR Trend before the Hit

Total I

Coal M

. of P

Pet. a

nd Nat

uring In

dustry

Food&Bev

Tobacco

Textil

Publishin

Ref. P

Chemic

Furnitu

El., G

Gap ( Potential vs. Current)

Total I

Coal M

. of P

Pet. a

nd Nat

uring In

dustry

Food&Bev

Tobacco

Textil

Publishin

Ref. P

Chemic

Furnitu

El., G

Adjusted Recovery Slope

Total I

Coal M

. of P

Pet. a

nd Nat

uring In

dustry

Food&Bev

Tobacco

Textil

Publishin

Ref. P

Chemic

Furnitu

El., G

Capacity Utilization

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Capacity Utilization Capacity Utilization_Sa

Sources of Capacity Underutilization

Shortage of Demand in Domestic Market Shortage of Demand in Foreign Market Financial Problems

Non-Farm Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: TURKSTAT

% 16.4

Thresholds for TRY/USD Exchange Rate

THRESHOLDS FOR TRY/USD EXCHANGE RATE*

2003 2004 2005 20072006

* Thresholds correspond to unobserved switching Markov regimes estimated by Yapı Kredi Economic Research.

2008 2009

High level regime --» Mean:1.52, Std. Deviation: 0.09

Low level regime --» Mean:1.31, Std. Deviation: 0.07

Source: YK Economic Research

Inflation

Monthly Inflation

Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09

Monthly inf lation Monthly SA

YoY Inflation

Apr-08 J un-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 J un-09 Aug-09 Oct-09

Contributions to Monthly Inflation

Miscellaneous

Hotels and Restaurants

Education

Culture

Communication

Transportation

Health

Houseware

Housing

Clothing and Shoes

Tobacco and Liquor

Food and Beverages

Contributions to Yearly Inflation

Miscellaneous

Hotels and Restaurants

Education

Culture

Communication

Transportation

Health

Houseware

Housing

Clothing and Shoes

Tobacco and Liquor

Food and Beverages

Inflation

Source: TURKSTAT

PPI CPI Man. Industry2006 11.6% 9.7% 12.3%2007 5.9% 8.4% 4.3%2008 8.1% 10.1% 6.4%

Sep-09 0.6% 0.4% 0.6%Oct-09 0.3% 2.4% 0.2%

Nov-09 1.3% 1.3% 1.1%

Dec-08 -3.5% -0.4% -3.8%Jan-09 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%Feb-09 1.2% -0.3% 0.3%

Inflation: Goods vs. Services

Source: CBRT

Goods Food Services

Inflation Expectations

Source: CBRT

12-Month Ahead CPI (%) 24-Month Ahead CPI (%) End-Year CPI (%)

Gross External Debt Profile of Turkey

50% 49%47%

35%30% 28%

33% 34%

64%67%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Public Sector CBRT Private Sector

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

GENERAL GOVERNMENT NOMINAL DEBT STOCK (EU-DEFINITION) / GDP

39.539.4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

General government consolidated gross debt as a percentage of GDP

EU (25 countries) 59.3EU (15 countries) 60.4Italy 104.1Greece 94.8Belgium 83.9Euro area 66.3Hungary 65.8Germany 65.1France 63.9Portugal 63.6Austria 59.5Netherlands 45.7Poland 44.9United Kingdom 44.2Turkey 38.8

Legend ( Series: 2007 )

3.5 - 18.2 18.2 - 29.4 29.4 - 40.4 40.4 - 59.5 59.5 - 104.1 N/A Source: EUROSTAT

Net Public Debt Stock / GDP

38.8 36.2 37.9 35.7 35.230.0 28.1 26.5

2.01.3

25.227.6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Net Domestic Debt Stock Net External Debt Stock

Net Public Debt Stock / GDP

25.6 26.131.2 29.9 31.3 27.6 26.2 25.7

40.735.4

6.43.2 2.9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Net TL Debt Stock Net FX Debt Stock

Central Administration Budget- 2009 Realizations

Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research

Jan. - Oct. 2008

Jan. - Oct. 2009

real change (%)

2008 budget realization

2008 budget realization/ 2008

budget target (%)

2009 budget target

Jan. - Oct 2008 / year-end real.

Jan. - Oct. 2009 / year-end target

Central Administration Revenues 175,768 175,368 -5.0 208,898 102.1 248,758 84.1 70.5 Tax Revenues 140,321 139,164 -5.6 168,087 98.2 202,090 83.5 68.9 Non-Tax Revenues 30,357 30,817 -3.4 34,298 121.6 40,867 88.5 75.4 Other 5,090 5,387 0.7 6,513 126.6 5,146 78.2 104.7Central Administration Expenditures 180,655 218,600 15.2 225,967 101.5 259,156 79.9 84.4 Non-interest expenditures 137,305 168,356 16.7 175,306 105.3 201,656 78.3 83.5 I. Personnel expenditures 41,295 47,412 9.3 48,825 100.3 57,211 84.6 82.9 II. Government premiums to social security 5,030 5,717 8.2 6,402 99.9 7,243 78.6 78.9 III. Purchases of goods and services 16,828 19,836 12.2 23,941 104.5 25,454 70.3 77.9 IV. Current transfers 57,363 77,071 27.9 70,116 101.3 87,956 81.8 87.6 Duty lossesof SEEs 1,474 3,431 121.5 2,041 131.5 3,081 72.2 111.4 Transfers to social security institutions 31,710 48,548 45.7 36,156 95.2 50,501 87.7 96.1 Agricultural transfers 5,503 3,913 -32.3 5,811 107.6 4,951 94.7 79.0 Other transfers 18,676 21,178 7.9 26,108 107.5 29,422 71.5 72.0 V. Capital expenditures 11,151 11,656 -0.5 18,441 156.6 14,839 60.5 78.5 VI. Other expenditures 5,638 6,664 12.5 7,583 99.9 8,953 74.3 74.4 Interest expenditures 43,351 50,244 10.3 50,661 90.5 57,500 85.6 87.4Primary Balance 38,464 7,012 -82.7 33,592 88.4 47,102 114.5 14.9Budget Balance -4,887 -43,232 - -17,069 94.8 -10,398 28.6 415.8

SELECTED ITEMS FROM CENTRAL ADMINISTRATION BUDGET (YTL million)

Revenues vs. Non-interest Expenditures (Real)

Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research

3-Month MA YoY Growth Rate

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

Revenues Non-interest Expenditures

6-Month MA YoY Growth Rate

-20.0%

-10.0%

Revenues Non-interest Expenditures

External Balance

Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

12-Month Rolling

-100,000

-50,000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Foreign Trade Deficit Exports Imports

YoY Growth

Exports Imports

Financial Account (6-Month Rolling)

Source: Turkstat, YK Economic Research

-20,000

-10,000

10,000

20,000

Portfolio Investment Banks Other Sectors

Financial Account (6-Month Rolling)

Source: Turkstat, YK Economic Research

-10,000

-5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Portfolio Investment Banks Other Sectors

Primary Surplus (% of GDP)

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, YK Economic Research

6.05.4

90-99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f

Current Account Deficit (12-Month Rolling)

Source: CBRT, TDM, YK Economic Research

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09

Current Account Energy Balance

Non-Debt Financing of CA Deficit

05-2004 11-2004 05-2005 11-2005 05-2006 11-2006 05-2007 11-2007 05-2008 11-2008 05-20090.0%

100.0%

125.0%

Non-debt Financing (1, left scale) Current Account Deficit (2, left scale) (1)/(2) (right scale)

FDI ($ bln)

Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, YK Economic Research

1.82.8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f

Bond Rates & O/N

Source: ISE, CBRT

Secondary Market CBRT O/N

Real Interest Rate & Real Exchange Rate

* deflated via CPI

** CPI based, 1995=100

Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT

Oct-02

Mar-03Aug-03

Jan-04Jun-04

Nov-04Apr-0

5Sep-05

Feb-06Jul-06

Dec-06May-07

Oct-07

Mar-08Aug-08

Jan-09Jun-09

Real Interest Rate (left scale) Real Effective Exchange Rate

Shares in Bond Stock

Non-Bank Sector

Foreign Investors

Bond Stocks (Billion TL)

5-J an-0723-Mar-07

8-J un-0724-Aug-07

9-Nov-0725-J an-08

11-Apr-0827-J un-08

12-Sep-0828-Nov-08

13-Feb-091-May-09

17-J ul-092-Oct-09

Foreign Investors (right scale) Banks' total bond portfolio (right scale)

Consumer Credits (% ch of 8W rolling)

8-Week Rolling

Housing Car Loans Other Consumer Credits

Commercial Credits (% ch of 8W rolling)

8-Week Rolling

Commercial Credits Consumer Credits

CBRT Expectations Survey

Source: CBRT

End-Year Exchange Rate (TL/$)

Source: CBRT

3-Month Ahead 6-Month T-Bill Rate (comp, %)

3-Month Ahead 5-Year Semi-Annually Couponed Gov. Bond Rate (comp, %)

Source: CBRT

2009 Growth (%)

Relative Currency Performances31 December 2007= 1.00

Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research

Turkey Brazil Argentina South Africa

Turkey Hungary Russia Poland

Relative Currency Performances31 December 2008= 1.00

Turkey Brazil Argentina South Africa

Turkey Hungary Russia Poland

MSCI Indices (31 Dec 2007 =1.0)

1.20 12

Turkey Brazil Hungary Poland Russia South Africa

MSCI Indices (31 Dec 2008 =1.0)

2.40012

Turkey Brazil Hungary Poland Russia South Africa

Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets

Middle Class in the Making

GENERAL

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

GENERAL

0.81.0 1.1

-3.1-3.5

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

0.2 0.2

-0.4-0.5

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO

1.61.4

-1.9 -2.0-2.5

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR

-1.3-1.5

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

1.4 1.4 1.3

-4.4-5.0

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQ., ROUTINE MAINT. OF THE HOUSE

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQ., ROUTINE MAINT. OF THE HOUSE

1.82.5

-6.1-7.0

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

HEALTH

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

HEALTH

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

TRANSPORT

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

TRANSPORT

3.1 2.83.6

-10.6-12.0

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

COMMUNICATIONS

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

COMMUNICATIONS

1.42.1

-7.0-8.0

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

RECREATION AND CULTURE

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

RECREATION AND CULTURE

3.62.5

-12.4-14.0

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

EDUCATION

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

EDUCATION

2.0 2.1

-12.5-15.0

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

1st 20%

2nd 20%

3rd 20%

4th 20%

5th 20%

MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES

1.01.4 1.6

1st 20% 2nd 20% 3rd 20% 4th 20% 5th 20%

Quintile Inflation Divergence from the Headline

Divergence from the Headline

1.%20 2.%20 3.%20 4.%20 5.%20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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