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Response of Australian Temperature Extremes to Climate Variability and Change
Regional Climate Research SectionNCAR Earth System Laboratory
NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially supported by the Willis Research Network, the DOE Research Program to Secure Energy for
America and NSF EASM Grants 1048841 and 1048829
Greg Holland
Collaboration with Cindy Bruyere Mari Jones and Abby Jaye
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• Working Hypothesis: o Global temperature extremes change
slowly- if at all – under GWo Maxima from advection increase substantially.
• The Record Australian Summer 2013
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Summary
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Stations Used
Giles
Sydney
Mel
Alice
Monash Informal Talk 1213 4
In Situ and Advective Extremes
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2Giles Jan 1957-2013Mel Jan 1857-2013
Maximum Temperature (oC)
Norm
alized
Fre
qu
en
cy
In Situ/Advective
In Situ
Monash Informal Talk 1213 5
Both Can Occur Together
Advective
In Situ
(Mari Jones)
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Seasonal: Desert In Situ Temperatures
• Extremes bumping up against the maximum possible• Skewed distribution develops
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Giles Maxima
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Climate Change: In Situ Temperatures
Variable, but marked increase in hot days and no change in extremes.
• Analysis Bdy Conditions, including SST, Interactive Land
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WRF Simulations
WRF Vs Observed Max TemperaturesAfter 17 days integration
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Hea
t Bui
ld U
p
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Diu
rnal
Var
iatio
n
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2xCO
2 Si
mul
ation
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Clim
ate
Chan
ge Im
pact
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Trend 1970-2011>35oC Maximum Temperature
(Bureau of Meteorology 2013)
In Situ Advective
• Global extreme temperatures change slowly, if at all, with GW
• For In Situ temperature extremes, PDF skews to more hot temperatures
• Advected temperature records increase substantially
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Summary
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