1 National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Where America’s Climate and Weather Services...

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction:Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

January 28, 2004

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Overview

• Define NCEP• Long Term Performance• Annual Operating Plan• Issues

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Define NCEP

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NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.

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NCEP’s Strategic Vision

First choice for global and national climate and weather analyses, forecasts and guidance

First alert for all climate and weather hazards

Preferred Partner in developing numerical models and new weather, water, climate and space weather products and services

Striving to be America’s

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NCEP Center Locations

Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

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131 Contractors/24 Visitors

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What Does NCEP Do?

Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation

Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions

Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and

Warnings Aviation Warnings

(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to

Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring –

geomagnetic storm forecasts

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products

Model Development and Applications, including Data AssimilationOcean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave ModelsSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

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NCEP Budget FactsFY 2003 Allocations by Center

Center Labor Non-labor Total Reimb/LO FTEsOD $1,356,322 $3,574,400 $4,930,722 $45,000 10NCO $6,786,724 $22,441,300 $29,228,024 $677,640 74

EMC $4,751,618 $2,499,500 $7,251,118 $7,182,716 47HPC $4,297,118 $73,500 $4,370,618 $157,893 43OPC $2,401,397 $52,400 $2,453,797 $25,107 24CPC $4,892,284 $554,100 $5,446,384 $2,098,700 50AWC $5,314,155 $735,100 $6,049,255 $670,500 54SPC $3,281,498 $565,800 $3,847,298 $0 32TPC $4,215,427 $441,100 $4,656,527 $167,893 41TOTAL $37,296,543 $30,937,200 $68,233,743 $11,025,449 375

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NCEP Budget FactsHistorical Base Funding

01020304050607080

FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003

Fiscal Year

$ in

Mill

ions

$68.2$62.0

$54.8$50.1

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Government Performance and Results Act Scores and

Long Term Performance

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GPRA Scores

Performance Measure

Actual2002

Actual 2003

Goal2004

Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)

124 nm 107 nm 129 nm

Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 Threat Score

.30 .29 .25

U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)

18 17 21

NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

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NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

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TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Hurricane Isabel

Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast

3-day forecast

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)0

100

200

300

400

500Er

ror (

naut

ical

mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2002

Isabel2003

HPC QPF Verification1-inch Threat Score

HPC QPF verification vs. the modelsDay 1, 1 inch

HPC QPF verificationDay 1, 1 inch, Jan-Dec 2003

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D ecem be r 200 1 - Fe brua ry 2002 A bove N ormalB elow N ormal

Observed

Temperature

D ecem ber 1998 - Feb rua ry 1999

D ecem ber 1997 - Feb rua ry 1998

D ecem ber 1999 - Feb rua ry 2000

D ecem be r 2000 - Feb rua ry 2001

Forec ast(H alf M onth L ead)

H ow F ar in A d v an ce T h e F o reca st W a s M a d e(M o n th s)

0 .5 1 .5 2 .5 3 .5 4 .5 5 .5 6 .5 7 .5 8 .5 9 .5 1 0 .5 1 1 .5 1 2 .5L ea d

-5 0

-4 0

-3 0

-2 0

-1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

Hei

dke S

kill

Winters

1995-961995*1996-971997-981998-991999-20002001-022000-01

(DJ F, J F M )

*J F M Only

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23

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Other Measures

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Eta Model Performance MetricRatio of Annual 48h Precipitation Threat Score to 24h Score in 1999

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28

29

30

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

JUL NOV MAR JUL NOV MAR JUL NOV

Num

ber o

f Mon

thly

Hits Access

introducedJuly 17, 2001

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

# of graphics produced per day 23180183333623 24774 28898

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Annual Operating Plan

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GPRA 

NWS GOALS 

NCEP GOALS

KEY DELIVERABLES

MILESTONES

BUDGET ALLOCATION

ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN

EXECUTIVESUMMARIES 

NTOPELEMENTS

NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Agency Goals

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Performance MeasuresGoals/ObjectivesOperating PlansMilestones

NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Process

Nov.Dec.

LateSept.

MidSept

Early Sept.EMC/NCO1st draft

Aug.Service Ctr. 1st drafts(New NTOPS)

Jan.NCOWrkst rev.

Dec.EMCreview

NTOPS1st draft

Performance PlansFTE allocation

Final NTOPWhen budgetIs allocated

ExecutiveSummary

OpsPlan

AnnualOperatingPlan

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FY 2004 Annual Operating PlanKey Milestones

Management• Complete Transition of Space Environment Center to NCEP• Conduct Ocean Model Review• Improve IT Security Management Processes• Complete New NCEP Strategic Plan• Begin TPC/OPC Cross Training in Connection With Synergy Plan

Infrastructure• Begin Construction of New NOAA Weather & Climate Prediction

Center• Complete Central Computer System Upgrades• Install and Establish Backup Operations on NCEP Backup Computer

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FY 2004 Annual Operating PlanKey Milestones

Programmatic• Implement Breakthrough Climate Model• Expand Winter Weather Experiment• Implement the North American Monsoon Experiment Field Campaign• Participate in THORPex Planning Activites: Produce North American Plan• Make Decision on First Round of Joint Hurricane Testbed Projects• Produce Operational Global/Regional UV Index Contour Maps for DoD• Implement Day 1 Air Quality Forecasts for Northeast U. S.• Enhance Fire Weather Guidance Products• Begin Development of Wave Model (WaveWatch III) for Great Lakes Domain• Implement WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure• Implement Improvements to Global Forecast System• Upgrade NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System• Complete AIRS Assessment to Make Decision on Operational Use• Initial operating capability for US/Canadian Ensemble forecast system

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Issues

• FY 2004 Budget– Adjustments-to-Base– New Building– Backup Computer

• Space in WWB• Role of NCEP in NOAA’s New Strategic Plan

(Ocean & Environment)• Role of NCEP in Interactive Forecast Processing

System Era

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Appendix

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Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecasts48 hours

0

50

100

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Nau

tical

Mile

s

Nautical Miles ActualNautical Miles Goals

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U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill

-50

0

50

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Skill

Skill ActualSkill Goals

40

Precipitation ForecastDay 1 Threat Score

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Thre

at S

core Day-1 Threat Score Actual

Day-1 Threat Score Goals