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1
TRENDS IN BRAZIL’S PRODUCTION AND
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
ITTO MARKET DISCUSSION
Libreville - Gabon | November, 2013
Ivan Tomaselliwww.stcp.com.br
4
FORESTS AND RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY
BRAZIL (2012)
- 8 million sq. km
- 60% Forests
4.5 million sq. km
PLANTATIONS
- 7 million ha
- 1% country area
- 90% pine/eucalyptus
5
FORESTS AND RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY
BRAZIL (2012)
TROPICAL TIMBER (Natural Forest)
- 52 million m³/year
PLANTATIONS TIMBER (pine and eucalyptus)
- 178 million m³/year
Source: IBGE 2013, compiled by STCP
6
FORESTS AND RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
Plantation Natural Forests
LOG PRODUCTIONBRAZIL
Source: IBGE 2013, compiled by STCP
Annual Growth Rate
Natural Forest - 6% / year
Plantation + 5% / year
8
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS
HISTORY OF FOREST SECTOR
1500-
1800
• Log Exports
1800-
1900
• Timber Imports
1900-
1960
• Araucária (Parana Pine) Industry
1960-
1900
• Tropical Timber Industry
1980-...
• Plantation Timber / Based Industry
Colonial Period
USA/Finland/Canada
Lumber/Plywood/Pulp
Lumber/Plywood
Pulp/Lumber/Wood Panels
9
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS
CURRENT PRODUCTION (2012)LUMBER - Natural Forest (Tropical) 6.0 million m³ - Plantation 9.2 million m³PLYWOOD - Natural Forest (Tropical) 480 thousand m³ - Plantation 2.1 million m³RECONSTITUTED PANELS (MDF/Particle Boad/Hardboard)
- Plantation 7.3 million m³PULP - Plantation 14.0 million tons
Global RankingMDF 3ºPulp 4ºEucalyptus Pulp 1º Source: ABIMCI, IBGE, FAO (2013), compiled by STCP
11
MARKETS AND TRADE
PRODUCTMARKET SHARE (2012)
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONALLUMBER - Tropical 94% 6% - Conifer (plantation) 92% 8%PLYWOOD - Tropical 88% 12% - Conifer (plantation) 53% 47%RECONSTITUTED PANELS (plantation) 98% 2%PULP (plantation) 42% 58%
Source: ABIMCI, MDIC (2013), compiled by STCP
12
MARKETS AND TRADE
MARKET TRENDS
- Tropical Lumber Exports
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1,10
4
1,10
9
1,31
8
1,55
6 1,89
4
1,75
6
1,54
3
1,58
1
957
530
537
452
380
307 304332
393
544579
571 670
477
257264 238
194
Volume (thousand m³) Value (US$ million)
Thou
sand
m³ U
S$ mm
illion
Unit Value(2000)
US$ 278/m³
Unit Value(2012)
US$ 511/m³
Volume ↓ x Unit Value ↑
Volume declined 76% in the last 10 yearsSource: ABIMCI (2013), compiled by STCP
13
MARKETS AND TRADE
MARKET TRENDS
- Tropical Lumber Export Price
Source: STCP Database.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Jatoba (Green) Cambara KD Angelim Pedra (Green)
US$
/m³ F
OB
Prices increased in the last 10 years: - Jatoba 148% - Cambara 70% - Angelim Pedra 216%
14
MARKETS AND TRADE
MARKET TRENDS
- Tropical Plywood Export
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
632
663
747
825
1,00
3
731
454
391
252
116
101
75 58
218 204228
246
373
276
213207
155
65 58 4636
Volume (thousand m³) Value (US$ million)
Thou
sand
m³ U
S$ million
Unit Value(2000)
US$ 344/m³
Unit Value(2012)
US$ 622/m³
Volume ↓ x Unit Value ↑
Volume declined 93% in the last 10 yearsSource: ABIMCI (2013), compiled by STCP
15
DECLINE IN EXPORTS OF TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS IS A GLOBAL TREND
MARKETS AND TRADE
Peru Brasil Malasia Bolivia ITTO TotalProducers
Total
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
-74.9
-50.1
-15.0
34.6
-9.1 -10.3
% P
erio
d G
row
th R
ate
(200
8-20
12)
Source: ITTO (2012), compiled by STCP
- Tropical Lumber Export Volume (2008-2012)
16
DECLINE IN EXPORTS OF TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS IS A GLOBAL TREND
MARKETS AND TRADE
Bolivia Brasil Peru Indonesia Malasya
LatinAmerica/Caribbean
-80.0
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
-75.0-70.1
-52.4
-18.7
1.5
-57.6
% P
erio
d G
row
th R
ate
(200
8-20
12)
Source: ITTO (2012), compiled by STCP
- Tropical Plywood Export Volume (2008-2012)
18
PERSPECTIVES
TRADE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE…
The international trade of tropical timber products has been affected by:
- Competition with other timber products (plantations);- Development of new competitive products and finishing materials;- Increase in the logistics costs for tropical timber;- Increase in transaction costs (local and international- EU FLEFT, United States’
Lacey Act, Australia’s Illegal Logging Act, etc); - Market access: barriers and impediments;- Lack of market promotion and product image- Reduction and restrictions on supply;- Lack of investments on technology developments to increase competitiveness.
19
PERSPECTIVES
TROPICAL PLANTATION TIMBER IS AN ALTERNATIVE…
There are successful tropical plantations that can enhance competitiveness of tropical timber products in the global market
- Teak- Acacia- Eucalyptus- African Mahogany- Others
Efforts are needed to maintain competitiveness: - Increase productivity of plantations and industrial operations - Develop and improve products performance
20
PERSPECTIVES
TO ENSURE THAT TROPICAL FORESTS ARE SUSTAINABLY MANAGED AND TROPICAL TIMBER INDUSTRY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVE THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF TROPICAL COUNTRIES IS FUNDAMENTAL A GLOBAL COORDINATED EFFORT TO INCREASE THE COMPETITIVENESS OF TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS IN THE MARKET
It is important to consider:- Reduction of transaction costs and market barriers / impediments- Technology developments to improve use of resources and products
performance- Market promotion to improve image
21
PERSPECTIVES
LEARNING FROM OTHERS - The International Jute Study Group (IJSG) successor to the International Jute Organisation (IJO)
www.jute.org
Objectives: • To provide an effective framework for international cooperation, consultation and policy development among members with regard to all relevant aspects of the world of jute economy;•To promote the expansion of international trade in jute and jute products by maintaining existing markets and by developing new markets, including the introduction of new jute products and the development of new end-uses;•To provide a forum for the active participation of the private sector in the development of the jute sector;•To address the issues of poverty alleviation, employment and development of human resources, particularly women, in the jute sector;•To facilitate the improvement of structural conditions in the jute sector through improvement of productivity and quality, and promotion of the application of new processes and technologies;•To create and increase awareness of the beneficial effects of the use of jute as an environmentally friendly, renewable and biodegradable natural fibre;•To improve market intelligence with a view to ensuring greater transparency in the international jute market in collaboration with other organizations, including the Food and
22
PERSPECTIVES
LEARNING FROM OTHERS - The International Coffee Organization (established in 1963)
Private Sector Consultative Board
The Private Sector Consultative Board (PSCB) is an ICO body which provides a platform for the representatives of private sector organizations of producing and consuming countries. Established in 1999, it consults with and advises the Council on issues relevant to the coffee sector, either on request or on its own initiative.The PSCB comprises 16 leading industry representatives from producing and consuming countries, along with their alternates and advisers. It generally meets at the time of the International Coffee Council meetings in March and September each year and its Chairperson reports to the Council on the outcome of its meeting. At the meetings, PSCB representatives review a range of coffee issues including sustainability initiatives, food safety aspects, quality and coffee and health. The PSCB has agreed that its main mission and objective should be to increase the world coffee market in value and volume. One of the constraints for increasing coffee consumption was the misconception that coffee is bad for your health held by part of the population. On the contrary, there is significant scientific information available on various positive health benefits associated with coffee drinking.www.ico.org
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