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11
Industry Plenary and Round Table
16th World CongressStockholm 2009
Steve HemingerExecutive Director
Metropolitan Transportation CommissionSan Francisco Bay Area, USA
22
33
FreightFreight
44
Growth in U.S. Container Trade ContinuesGrowth in U.S. Container Trade Continues
2000-2028
Source: Global Insight
55
1,4371,437
6,1656,165
(TEUs in thousands)
20202020
20042004
HoustonHouston
13,10113,101
LA/LBLA/LB1,0101,0102,15
22,152
MiamiMiami
2,0432,0433,3823,382
OaklandOakland
4,4784,478
15,83515,835
NY/NJNY/NJ
1,8091,809
5,5665,566
VirginiaVirginia
1,8601,860
6,6396,639
CharlestonCharleston
1,6621,662
9,4209,420
SavannahSavannah
1,7981,7984,3964,396
TacomaTacoma
1,7761,776 2,5572,557
SeattleSeattle
59,42059,420
Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression
Dramatic Increase in Port ActivityDramatic Increase in Port ActivityVolume of trade: 2004 and 2020
Source: U.S. DOT
66
Truck Rail Water Air Total
More trade means more domesticfreight movementsMore trade means more domesticfreight movements
West region +65%
South region +71%
Central
region +71%
Northeast region +58%
U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020
U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020
20202020
20002000
% change 2000-2020% change 2000-2020
62% 44% 39% 181% 57%
10,70010,700
17,29617,296
2,0092,009
2,8912,891
1,0541,054
1,4701,470
13,77213,772
21,68221,682
992525
(tons in millions)
Source: U.S. DOT
77
Metro MobilityMetro Mobility
88
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours AnnuallyIn Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
99
Metros Capture Huge Market ShareMetros Capture Huge Market Share
10 Megaregions
Metro Areas>1 Million
1 Share of U.S. Population 68% 58%
2 Share of GDP 78% 61%
3 Share of Traffic Congestion 92% 97%
4 Share of Transit Ridership 93% 92%
5 Share of Population Exposure to Criteria Pollutants 94% 88%
Sources: U.S. Census, Texas Transportation Institute, U.S. Conference of Mayors, EPA
1010
Fuel Efficiency/Energy Security/Climate Change
Fuel Efficiency/Energy Security/Climate Change
1111
Annual Petroleum Production, Imports and Consumption In the U.S., 1949–2006
Annual Petroleum Production, Imports and Consumption In the U.S., 1949–2006
Source: Energy Information Administration
11
1212
International Fuel Economy ComparisonInternational Fuel Economy ComparisonComparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards
for new-sale light-duty vehicles
Sou
rce:
UC
Berk
ele
y
12
1313
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use: 1985-2006U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use: 1985-2006
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2007
1414
SafetySafety
1515
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMTU.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMT
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
1616
Lessons from the San Francisco Bay Area
Lessons from the San Francisco Bay Area
1717
Premise 1: Transportation is Critical Premise 1: Transportation is Critical
Sources: USEIA, BAAQMDSources: USEIA, BAAQMD
Transportation: Transportation: 14%14% TransportationTransportation: :
41%41%
WorldWorld Bay Bay AreaArea
Green House Gases Compared
1818
Premise 2:Tighter Emission Standards Necessary But Not Sufficient
Premise 2:Tighter Emission Standards Necessary But Not Sufficient
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
1990=100
Baseline VMT
Baseline CO2
CO2 Pavley
C02 State 2020 Goal
1919
Premise 3: Location Matters
Premise 3: Location Matters
Growing Cooler: Compared to sprawl, compact development results in a 20 to 40 percent reduction in
VMT and hence in CO2
2020
Premise 4: Price MattersMore
Premise 4: Price MattersMore
Core Pricing:Driving is more expensive in the urban core with parking costs and bridge tolls
2121
A Local-Regional Partnership is EssentialA Local-Regional Partnership is Essential
Land Use Transportation
Sustainable Communities StrategySustainable Communities Strategy
Local AuthorityLocal Authority Regional AuthorityRegional Authority
2222
Some Impacts Now…Many Much LaterSome Impacts Now…Many Much LaterShort TermShort Term Long TermLong Term
Parking PolicyParking Policy
EV InfrastructureEV Infrastructure
Carbon taxes/Road PricingCarbon taxes/Road Pricing
Compact & Complete CommunitiesCompact & Complete Communities
Transit-oriented Employment CentersTransit-oriented Employment Centers
SCS Mobility Management Tools
2323
U.S. ExamplesU.S. Examples
Federal Policy – Transportation for Tomorrow Focus on Metro Mobility Urban Partnership Program to conduct large scale
demonstrations of strategies to improve urban mobility Multi-modal traveler information systems to influence
travel decisions Transit-oriented development to encourage alternatives to
private cars Car sharing High Occupancy Toll lanes Traffic management systems to use existing capacity Intellidrive program to design connectivity between
vehicles and the roadway
2424
Working Together in the FutureFocus on Urban Mobility
Working Together in the FutureFocus on Urban Mobility
Share developments in technology and policy that focus on solving metropolitan transportation problems
Example: CIVITAS program – bring good ideas to scale Traveler information systems designed for the next
generation In-vehicle and roadside communication in real time Improve intermodal freight movement to reduce impacts on
urban centers Dynamic management of existing infrastructure Integrate pricing, fare payment, parking charges
Link land use planning and transportation investment to improve urban mobility
2525
Cooperation between ModesCooperation between Modes
Establish common targets for GHG emission reduction, urban congestion mitigation, safety and equity
Optimize modal contributions to meeting these targets Achieve dynamic management of existing
infrastructure to optimize existing capacity. Implement intermodal electronic payment systems to
allow ease of movement while achieving pricing objectives
Supply real-time information to help make informed decisions
2626
System Management & ITSSystem Management & ITS
System management approach relies on ITS projects to: Manage traffic, Improve freeway and arterial operations, Ensure rapid response to and clearance of
freeway incidents, Inform travelers about options on-demand and in
real-time, and Simplify access with electronic payment systems.
2727
ITS SolutionsITS Solutions
Freeway Performance Initiative & Related Efforts Ramp metering Traffic detection Information systems
511 Traveler Information Services
Vehicle Infrastructure Integration / IntelliDriveSM
Electronic Payment Systems
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