1 CRGAQS: Meteorological Modeling prepared for Southwest Clean Air Agency 19 June 2006 prepared by...

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CRGAQS: CRGAQS: Meteorological ModelingMeteorological Modeling

prepared for Southwest Clean Air Agency

19 June 2006

prepared by Alpine Geophysics, LLCENVIRON International Corp

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MM5 SimulationsModel Option MM5 Simulation

Run1 Run2 Run3(UW Forecast)

Run 4(PortlandSIP)

Run 5(2 +surf)

Run 6*(2+surf+BM)

Land Surface Model Pleim-Xiu Pleim-Xiu 5-Layer Soil NOAH Pleim-Xiu Pleim-Xiu  

Planetary Boundary Layer

ACM ACM MRF MRF ACM ACM 

Radiation RRTM RRTM CCM2 RRTM RRTM RRTM  

Shallow Convection None None None None None None  

Cumulus Parameterization

KF 2 (36/12) KF 2 (36/12)

KF (36/12)

KF (36/12)

KF 2 (36/12)

BM (36/12)

Moist Physics Reisner I Reisner I Reisner II GSFC Graupel Reisner I Reisner I  

Analysis Nudging Surface

None None None None U/V U/V 

Analysis Nudging Aloft

U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q U/V/T/Q 

Surface Obs Nudging

None U/V (No Gorge)

None None U/V (w/Gorge)

U/V (w/ Gorge)

* Run6 similar to WRAP configuration

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Analysis RegionsAnalysis Regions

WG = Western Gorge

CG = Central Gorge

EG = Eastern Gorge

PS = Puget Sound

NC = North Coast

WV = William

EC = East of Cascades

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August 2004 4km Humidity August 2004 4km Humidity Bias/ErrorBias/Error

5

August 2004 4km Humidity August 2004 4km Humidity MeanMean

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August 2004 4km TemperatureAugust 2004 4km TemperatureBias/ErrorBias/Error

7

Aug 2004 4km TemperatureAug 2004 4km TemperatureMeanMean

8

Aug 2004 4km WindAug 2004 4km WindRMSE/ErrorRMSE/Error

9

Aug 2004 4km WindMean Speed

10

Aug 2004 12km HumidityBias/Error

11

Aug 2004 12km HumidityMean

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Aug 2004 12km TemperatureBias/Error

13

Aug 2004 12km TemperatureMean

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Aug 2004 12km WindRMSE/Error

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Aug 2004 12km WindSpeed Mean

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Nov 2004 4km HumidityBias/Error

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Nov 2004 12km HumidityMean

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Nov 2004 4km TemperatureBias/Error

19

Nov 2004 4km TemperatureMean

20

Nov 2004 4km WindRMSE/Error

21

Nov 2004 4km WindMean Speed

22

Nov 2004 12km HumidityBias/Error

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Nov 2004 12km HumidityMean

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Nov 2004 12km TemperatureBias/Error

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Nov 2004 12km TemperatureMean

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Nov 2004 12km WindRMSE/Error

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Nov 2004 12km WindMean Speed

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MM5 Configuration Selection

Based on Overall Synthesis of the Candidate Simulations, Run 6 is chosen as best performing

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Run 6 Performance Evaluation

Qualitative Precipitation Analysis Comparison with 0.25o (~27km) CPC Episode Total CPC analysis does not extend over water

Gorge Mean Value Analysis Compare Time Series of Spatial Mean Model/Obs.

Wind Vector Analysis

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Qualitative Precipitation4km Aug 2004

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Qualitative Precipitation12km Aug 2004

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Qualitative Precipitation4km Nov 2004

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Qualitative Precipitation12km Nov 2004

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Qualitative PrecipitationSummary

MM5 generally captures spatial extent and magnitude of precip.

MM5 shows smaller scale structure that can not be verified with the coarse CPC analysis

MM5 underestimates precip. in: Southeastern Oregon in August Oregon coast and Portland in November

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Aug. 2004 Mean Humidity4km Gorge

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

5

10

15

20

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

g/k

g

ObsHum PrdHum

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

5

10

15

20

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

g/k

g

ObsHum PrdHum

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

5

10

15

20

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

g/k

g

ObsHum PrdHum

West

Central

East

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Aug. 2004 Mean Temperature4km Gorge

Observed/Predicted Temperature

270

280

290

300

310

320

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

Observed/Predicted Temperature

275280285290295300305310

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

Observed/Predicted Temperature

270

280

290

300

310

320

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

West

Central

East

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Aug. 2004 Mean Wind Speed4km Gorge

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

05

10

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

05

10

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

01020

8/ 5

8/ 6

8/ 7

8/ 8

8/ 9

8/1

0 8

/11

8/1

2 8

/13

8/1

4 8

/15

8/1

6 8

/17

8/1

8 8

/19

8/2

0 8

/21

8/2

2 8

/23

8/2

4

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

West

Central

East

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Nov. 2004 Mean Humidity4km Gorge

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

2

4

6

8

10

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

g/k

g

ObsHum PrdHum

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

2

4

6

8

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

g/k

g

ObsHum PrdHum

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

2

4

6

8

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

g/k

g

ObsHum PrdHum

West

Central

East

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Nov. 2004 Mean Temperature4km Gorge

Observed/Predicted Temperature

260265270275280285290295

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

Observed/Predicted Temperature

260265270275280285290295

11/ 4

11/ 5

11/ 6

11/ 7

11/ 8

11/ 9

11/1

011

/11

11/1

211

/13

11/1

411

/15

11/1

611

/17

11/1

8

K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

Observed/Predicted Temperature

260265270275280285290295

11/ 4

11/ 5

11/ 6

11/ 7

11/ 8

11/ 9

11/1

011

/11

11/1

211

/13

11/1

411

/15

11/1

611

/17

11/1

8

K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

West

Central

East

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Nov. 2004 Mean Wind Speed4km Gorge

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

0

5

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

0

5

10

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

0

5

10

11/ 4 11/ 5 11/ 6 11/ 7 11/ 8 11/ 9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

West

East

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Mean Value AnalysisSummary

MM5 generally overestimates humidity in August and underestimates in November

Significant humidity phase difference in eastern gorge in mid-August.

MM5 tends to underestimate daytime and overestimate nighttime temperatures Typical pattern but larger than normal

Model overestimating temperatures in central gorge early in Nov. episode.

Wind speed trends generally captured

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Wind Vector Analysis

Hourly wind vectors have been prepared Brief subset for presentation

Black vectors MM5 winds Red vectors Obs. winds

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Aug 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Aug 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Nov 2004 4km Wind Vector

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Wind Vector AnalysisSummary

MM5 generally captures up-gorge flow in Aug. and down-gorge flow in Nov.

Flows follow gorge quite closely Gorge monitors show more variation between

nearby monitors than MM5 fields Indication that obs. influenced by small scale features

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SummarySummary

Significant Effort was put into determining the best performing options in MM5

MM5 is still performing less well than performance benchmarks based on historic MM5 applications. Gorge more complex than other areas. Monitors more likely to be

influenced by small scale flows Gorge analysis regions have fewer sites than were used for benchmarks Nov. case has weak synoptic forcing. MM5 traditionally performs better

under stronger forced conditions

MM5 Captures August Up-gorge flows MM5 Captures November Down-gorge flows

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Next StepsNext Steps

Prepare emissions using WRAP 2002 inventory projected to 2004 replaced by ODEQ/SWCAA data for selecteed WA and OR Counties 36 and 12 km WRAP 2002 projected to 2004 4 km add OR and WA inventories

• Some issues/inconsistencies with OR/WA data

CMAQ and CAMx base case modeling and model performance evaluation

Evaluate need/usefulness of 1.33 km MM5 modeling