1 Conduct of Contemporary War and Warfare The Art of Strategy: To gain the most favorable and...

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Conduct of Contemporary War and Warfare

The Art of Strategy: To gain the most favorable and durable outcome possible at the least cost in blood, treasure, and time

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Use examples and ideas from all three readings to address the following:

•Group 1. What is a Theory of Victory and in what ways should War Termination fit within it?

•Group 2: Describe a plausible theory of victory for ISIS. Be sure to discuss Ends (Aims) and Ways from their perspective.

•Group 3: Explain three significant challenges in translating military success into desired political ends.

•Group 4: Describe a plausible theory of victory for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. Be sure to discuss Ends (Aims) and Ways from their perspective.

•Group 5: Evaluate the merits of Historian Jeremy Black’s statement that ‘… success in war is a cultural construct.’

•Group 6: Describe a plausible theory of victory for the Taliban. Be sure to discuss Ends (Aims) and Ways from their perspective.

•Group 7: In what ways can changes in domestic coalitions affect war aims, policy, and strategy?

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Primordial ViolenceChance and Probability

Reason

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

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Political Decisions

ENDS: Desired OutcomesGuidanceBoundariesPriotities

Organize Ways and Means into Theory of Success that achieves desired outcomes within policy guidance and boundaries

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 5

GROUP 5

1. “… SUCCESS IN WAR IS A CULTURAL CONSTRUCT.”

2. ATHENS3. SUCCESS / DECISIVE VICTORY4. OVERLAPPING BARGAINING

SPACE

PEOPLE PERCEIVE THINGS DIFFERENTLY

Crisis Diplomacy War Diplomacy Peace

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 3

Crisis Diplomacy War Diplomacy

Conventional War paradigm

Contemporary War

Political Diplomatic

MilitaryEconomic

Socio-CulturalCrisis

Peace

End of Crisis;Peace

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 1

The Myth of Decisive Victory

• Assumption that wars should be short, sharp, and sweet

• Few wars have led to quick and decisive victories

• Ignoring this has led to costly mistakes in military planning

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Political Decisions

ENDS: Desired OutcomesGuidanceBoundaries

Organize Ways and Means into Theory of Success that achieves desired outcomes within policy guidance and boundaries

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

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Critical Understanding

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

DestroyEliminate

ContainIsolateDeter

DisruptSuppressDegrade/AttritUndermine

CreateEstablish

PromoteSupportDefeat

AssistAid

Level of Commitment

CoordinateCollaborate

Critical Understanding

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Strengths Weaknesses

OpportunitiesRisks

How to …•Exploit their vulnerabilities?•Undermine their strengths?•Mask my vulnerabilities?•Exploit my strengths?

Thus a victorious army wins its victories before seeking battle; an army destined for defeat fights in the hope of winning – Sun Tzu

Seize something he cherishes and he will conform to your desires – Sun Tzu

Critical Understanding

• Political• Diplomatic• Military• Intelligence• Economic• Cultural• Social

WAYS: How do I employ elements of national power (capabilities) to achieve desired outcomes (Ends) …

… in a dynamic, competitive, interactive environment

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

… that addresses vulnerabilities and strengths…

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

• Political• Diplomatic• Military• Intelligence• Economic• Cultural• Social

OR…

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What Resources (MEANS) do I need for WAYS to achieve ENDS

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

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Critical Understanding

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Decisive Victory

Negotiated Ending

Strategic Withdrawal

Level of Commitm

ent

Likely Durabilit

y

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Negotiated Endings

Imposed Settlement

Strategic A

dvantage

Favorable Settlement

Truce

Un-Favorable Settlement

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Deliberate Strategy

GOAL

Threats & Opportunities

Emergent Strategies

Realized StrategyRejected Efforts

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Deliberate Strategy

GOAL

Threats & Opportunities

Emergent Strategies

Rejected Efforts

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Deliberate Strategy

GOAL

Threats & Opportunities

Emergent Strategies

Rejected Efforts

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Prefe

rence

Entrapment

Information

Group 7

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Effort

Time

Success

Quagmire?

Time

Effort

Success

Success

Critical Understanding

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

A Proper Theory of VictoryEmergent Strategies

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 2 (4,6)

Group 2: ISIS Victory Theory

Establish an Islamic Caliphate throughout the Muslim world•Modern notions of statehood and national boundaries must be discarded•In the medium/long term their aims may extend to the whole of the Middle East and then the broader Sunni world.  Forge a pure conservative form of Islam •Elimination of Shias•Impose Sharia Laws 

Stage one: Ensuring survival through arms/political stalemate• >Split the US led coalition: Exploit the fact that the members of the coalition have different agendas, keep

their attention on each other. Airstrikes are not enough.

• >Intimidation: Continue the propaganda of hatred of other sects (Shias), but not to the point where Iran is encouraged to step in

• >Underground Propaganda: seeks to gain Sunni support in the following states: Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, etc.

• >Engage in corruption (in Baghdad): This may sound counter intuitive, but corruption enables ISIS to launder money, and obscure their financial pipelines. It keeps societies weak, maintains the “collapse of the Arab civilization, enabling radical Islam to look more attractive. “2-in-1” effect

• >Keep current stronghold: do not over expand.

• >Governance: Provide basic government services to controlled population, at least just better than the previous Iraqi/Syrian governments could provide

• >Run the War Economy: Allow the population to do business as usual, do not interfere or weaken the competitiveness of business. They must provide jobs and those jobs will generate the tax necessary to run basic government services. Maintain and protect the local infrastructure

• >Oil: keep selling oil, find more middlemen, increase the network.

Stage Two (Long Term): Spreading Radical Islam and Insurgency.• >Goals in other (Muslim) states: weaken governments by causing

sectarian divisions; promoting sunni hatred of their governments; engaging

in corruption and weakening institutions. This will give rise to radical

islam.

• > Insurgency based operations: Focus on instigating radical uprisings, by

not having ISIS directly invade other states, but having them do it from the

inside out, while establishing the terrorist network.

• >Domino Effect: timing is essential - one uprising should encourage the

next

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 2 (4,6)

Strengths Weaknesses

OpportunitiesRisks

How to …•Exploit their vulnerabilities?•Undermine their strengths?•Mask my vulnerabilities?•Exploit my strengths?

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 2 (4,6)

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Group 2 (4,6)

Deliberate Strategy

GOAL

Threats & Opportunities

Emergent Strategies

Realized StrategyRejected Efforts

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

IS Effectiveness(-)

Coalition Effectiveness (+)

IS Effectiveness (+)

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination

Emergent Strategies Coalition Effectiveness (-)

Status Quo

I II

IVIII

IS precipitous collapse

IS offensive culminates; consolidates control

IS consolidates control; continues advance; coalition splits

IS collapsing; govt’s rejected; coalition splits

Progress

A plausible ‘Theory of Victory’ for the Taliban

‘Theory of Victory’:

1) Departure of foreigners

2) Full implementation of Sharia law

3) Complete replacement of the current Afghan government

Ways to achieve victory:

Theory of Victory vs. Real World

Recipe for victory in the real world for the Taliban might be:

R (power of resistance) = M (total means available) x W (strength of will)

Bring power of resistance as close as possible to zero

• Groups 1 and 2: Refine, as necessary, the Emergent Strategies Quad chart; Identify one intelligence question per quadrant that should help your protagonist anticipate the direction the conflict is heading.

• Groups 3 and 4: For your protagonist, identify three critical friendly and enemy strengths and weaknesses, and three potential risks and opportunities they offer.

•Groups 5-6: Following Biddle’s model of higher-end and lower-end aims and their implications; identify a plausible higher-end and lower-end aim (END) for your protagonist and identify the likely implications on potential WAYS and MEANS.

•Group 7: From the Coalition perspective, identify three potential “intelligence” failures (using Betts’ concept of the term) that could have strategic implications in the conflict against IS.

Lesson 5: Intelligence and Strategic Design

Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination