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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
@ Copyright 2002, Department Infrastructure
The Impact of Climate The Impact of Climate Change on the Rainfall Change on the Rainfall
Distribution in SurinameDistribution in Surinameby
Nurmohamed Riad J.1
1 ADEK University of Suriname, Faculty of Technological Sciences, Department Infrastructure, Leysweg, POB 9212, Paramaribo, Suriname (S.A), Phone:+597-465558 ext 351, Fax: +597-495005,
E-mail: riadnur@hotmail.com, Website: www.uvs.edu, Homepage: http://www.geocities.com/riadnur/Index.htm
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
ContentContent
Introduction in Climate Change
Objectives
Study Area and Data Used
Results and Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature
Methodology
Impact Climate Change on Rainfall and Temperature
Conclusions and Recommendations
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Introduction (1)Introduction (1)
Before year 2000, Earth’s Average Global Surface Temperature (TGS) has increased 0.6+0.2oC
By year 2100 (2 x CO2) TGS will increase 1.5 to 4.5oC => Climate Change (IPCC)
Temperature change => precipitation change, inclusive change in intensity and frequency of rainfalls, location and patterns of extreme weather evens
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Introduction (2)Introduction (2)
Climate Change Impact:
• Change in rainfall => change in river runoff, biodiversity, forestry, coastal and marine ecosystems
• Sea level rise => saltwater intrusion in coastal groundwater's, flooding low lying areas
Change in quantity and distribution of rainfall => effect availability of freshwater, its use, planning and management of water resources projects, extreme draughts, forest fires
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
ObjectivesObjectives
Analysis of historical monthly and annual rainfall time series to identify trends,
Analysis of historical monthly and annual temperature time series to identify trends, and
Predictions of future rainfall and temperature quantity and distribution
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Study AreaStudy Area
Area Suriname: +163,800km2, +85% covered with forest
Climate: tropical humid, mean daily temperature: 23-31oC, mean annual rainfall: <1500mm-3000mm/year, mean annual evaporation: 1600-1900mm/year
Four Seasons a year: (a) the long rain season (April-mid August), (b) the long dry season (mid August-December), (c) the short rain season (December-February) and (d) the small dry season (February-April)
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Data UsedData Used
11 rainfall stations:
daily data: 1900-1999
7 temperature stations:
daily data: 1971-1999
(1) Albina,(2/6) Brownsweg,(3), Coeroeni,(4) Cultuurtuin,(5) Friendshiptotness,(6) Kabalebo,(7) Moengo,(8) Sipaliwini,(9) Stoelmanseiland,(10) Tafelberg, (11) NwNickerie.
Record lengths >15 years
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
MethodologyMethodology
Linear regression analysis,
The 5-year moving average, and
Extrapolation of historical trends and simulations of Global Circulation Models (HadCM2 (UK), ECHAM4 (Germany), CGCM1 (Canada), GFDL-TR (USA), CSIRO2-EQ (Australia) and CCSR-NIES (Japan))
Analyzing long term annual and monthly data of rainfall, temperature and climate change impacts:
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Results and Analysis (1)Results and Analysis (1)
Rainfall Analysis and Trends:
Annual average rainfall 1961-1985
• increasing with +3-41 mm/year (Albina,Brownsweg,Coeroeni,Cultuurtuin,Kabalebo, Moengo,NwNickerie,Stoelmanseiland)
• decreasing with -2.4- -14.5 mm/year (Friendshiptotness,Sipaliwini,Tafelberg)
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Results and Analysis (2)Results and Analysis (2)
Rainfall Analysis and Trends:Cultuurtuin
y = 10.854x + 1282.6
R2 = 0.064
y = -2.8106x + 2334.8
R2 = 0.0545
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Time (years)
An
nu
al R
ain
fall
(mm
)
Long period Short period Trend (short period)
Trend (long period) 5 per moving average
Trend for annual average rainfall at station Cultuurtuin during a 25 year period (1961-1985) and 100 year period (1900-1999)
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Results and Analysis (3)Results and Analysis (3)
Annual average rainfall, 1900-1999
• increasing with +0.83-16.34 mm/year (Albina,Brownsweg, Coeroeni,Kabalebo, Stoelmanseiland)
• decreasing with -2.4- -14.34 mm/year (Cultuurtuin, Friendshiptotness, Moengo, NwNickerie, Sipaliwini,Tafelberg)
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Results and Analysis (4)Results and Analysis (4)
Temperature Analysis and Trends:
Annual average temperature 1971-1985
• increasing with +0.001-0.081oC/year (all stations)
Annual average temperature 1900-1999
• increasing with +0.001-0.063oC/year (all stations)
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Results and Analysis (5)Results and Analysis (5)
Temperature Analysis and Trends:
y = 0.0284x + 26.89
R2 = 0.359
y = 0.0812x + 26.525
R2 = 0.7349
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999Time (years)
An
nu
al A
vera
ge
Tem
per
atu
re (
oC
)
Short period Long periodTrend (long period) Trend (short period)
Trend for annual average temperature at station Cultuurtuin during a 15 year period (1971-1985) and 28 year period (1971-1999)
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Climate Change Impact on the Rainfall Climate Change Impact on the Rainfall Quantity and DistributionQuantity and Distribution
Observed Rainfall
Data(1961-1985)
Rainfall Period Rainfall
(mm) (year) (mm)
value (%) value (%) value (%) value (%) value (%) value (%)
2162 2030 2140 (-1) 1929 (-11) 2088 (-3) 2159 (-0.1) 2315 (7) 2171 (0.4)
2162 2060 2126 (-1.6) 1726 (-20) 2152 (-0.5) 2192 (1.4) 3008 (40) 2178 (0.7)
2162 2100 2107 (-2.5) 1444 (-33) 2056 (-5) 2146 (-0.7) 2836 (31) 2189 (1)
Average Annual precipitation (mm)Historical Rainfall Trend Data
Modelled Rainfall
ModelsHadCM2 ECHAM4 GFDL-TR CCSR-
NIESCSIRO 2-
EQ
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Climate Change Impact on the Temperature Climate Change Impact on the Temperature Quantity and DistributionQuantity and Distribution
Observed Temp. Data
Historical Temp.
(1971-1985)
Trend Data
Temp. Period Temp.
(oC) (year) (oC)
value (change)
value (change)
value (change)
value (change)
value (change)
value (change)
26.8 2030 27.9 (1.1) 28 (1.2) 27.9 (1.1) 27.5 (0.7) 27.5 (0.7) 27.3 (0.5)
26.8 2060 28.6 (1.8) 29 (2.2) 28.8 (2) 28.1 (1.3) 28.2 (1.4) 27.7 (0.9)
26.8 2100 29.6 (2.8) 30.3 (3.5) 30 (3.2) 28.9 (2.1) 29.1 (2.3) 28.3 (1.5)
Average Annual Temperature (oC)
Modelled Temperature
ModelsCSIRO 2-
EQHadCM2 ECHAM4 GFDL-TR CCSR-
NIES
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Conclusions and Recommendations (1)Conclusions and Recommendations (1)
Decreasing and increasing trend in annual rainfall in Suriname
Historical Trend Analysis:
Increasing trend in annual temperature in Suriname
Reason(s) and relation between rainfall and temperature trend need to be analyzed
Moving average better indicator for detail trend analysis
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Conclusions and Recommendations (2)Conclusions and Recommendations (2)
Future Analysis/Predictions (2000-2100):
Trends:
• Annual rainfall => decrease -1- -2.5%
• Annual temperature => increase 1.1-2.8oC
Global Circulation Models:
• Annual rainfall => decrease/increase -0.1--33%/0.4-31%
• Annual temperature => increase 0.5-3.5oC
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5th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, GuyanaADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana
Conclusions and Recommendations (3)Conclusions and Recommendations (3)
For further studies, Regional Climate Change scenarios are needed and additional climatic data from French Guiana, Guyana and Brazil need to be collected
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