: Observing the Information Society: What Do We Not Know? Bill Dutton with Hsiao-hui Chen, Martin...

:Observing the Information Society:

What Do We Not Know?

Bill Dutton with Hsiao-hui Chen, Martin Dimov, Jianbin Jin

Oxford Internet Institute (OII) University of Oxford

www.ox.ac.uk

Presentation for Seminar ‘Observing the Information Society in Portugal: State of the Art, Lisbon, 13 December 2006.

• 2003 and 2005• Cross-sectional surveys versus panels• Probability sample of England, Scotland & Wales

• Respondents: 14 year olds and older

• Face-to-face interviews• Sponsorship from Hefce, AOL, BT, Ofcom, and

Wanadoo (Orange)

Oxford Internet Surveys (OxIS)

Oxford Internet Surveys (OxIS)

2003 2005

Fielded in June-July February-March

Number of respondents

2,030 2,185

Response rate

66% 72%

• The World Internet Project (WIP)

- Initiated 2000, UCLA, now at USC

- Data for 22 nations (and expanding)

- www.worldinternetproject.net

• Britain: Oxford Internet Surveys (OxIS)

The World Internet Project

The Development of a Cyberinfrastructure

Themes of Social Research

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2005

InternetMobile

Centrality of the Internet in Britain, 2000-05

Source: Oxford Internet Survey: www.oii.ox.ac.uk

The Development of a Cyberinfrastructure

Digital Divides Shaping Access

Themes of Social Research

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

______________________________________________________

Percent Internet Use, circa 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Hungary

Iran Chile Spain Italy Czech Macao Britain JapanSweden

SingaporeCanada

USA

2005

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

______________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________

Percent Internet Users, 2003-5

Has Internet adoption reached a plateau?Adoption in Britain (2003–2005)

59 60

6 8

35 32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

Current users Lapsed users Non-users

2003 2005

OxIS 2003: N=2,029 (All respondents); OxIS 2005: N=2,185 (All respondents)

Broadband connection per householdwith Internet access (2003-2005)

59

19

0 20 40 60 80 100

% Broadband

% of householdswith Internet

access

2005 2003

OxIS 2003: N= 1,172 (Households with Internet access);OxIS 2005: N = 1,330 (Households with Internet access)

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

______________________________________________________________________

Percent Who Use the Internet: Lowest and Highest Economic Quartiles,

circa 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Hungary

Iran China Czech ItalySweden Macao Spain

CanadaSingapore

USA

1st Quartile

4th Quartile

Patterns of the Digital Divide in Britain

No Mobile phone

No PC

No Home Internet

Up to £12,500

51+

Big city + Suburban

University education

Home InternetPC

Secondary education£37,500 to £50,000

£25,000 to £37,500

Village + FarmOver £50,000

Male

21-30

£12,500 to £25,000

FemaleLower education

Mobile phone 31-50

up to 20 Small city

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

? = 0.953

? = 0.038

Digital Divide in Portugal

MaleFemaleVillage + farmBellow secondary No home Internet

Do not use computerSmall city

31-5021-30

Mobile phone

51+

Big city + suburban

SecondaryHome InternetUse computer

University

up to 20

No Mobile phone

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

-2 -1 0 1 2

?=0.957

?=0.037

Patterns of Digital Divides in Portugal

Patterns of Digital Divides in Bulgaria Divide in Bulgaria

up to 150 BGN

No Cell PhoneUniversity Education51+

up to 20

SofiaBellow secondary Education

Home InternetUse Internet

No Home Internet801 BGN and over

Big city Female

21-30Male

151-350 BGN

Small town

No Internet

Rural/village

601-800 BGN

31-50Secondary Education

351-600 BGN

Cell Phone

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

-2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2

?=0.906

?=0.08

8

Source: eBulgaria survey, 2005, Vitosha Research£1 = 2,63 BGN

Patterns of Digital Divides in Hong Kong Divide in Bulgaria

Home internet

University

Female

up to 10000

Mobile phoneSecondary

10001-2000021-30

20001-30000

Bellow secondaryMale

Internet

30001-40000

31-50

30001-40000

51+

No internet

No home internet

up to 20No mobile phone

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

_=0,93

_=0,056

Patterns of Digital Divides in Macao Divide in Bulgaria

Male Female

Secondary24001 and overUniversity

18001-2400021-30

Mobile

Home internet

Internet

No home internet

6001-1200012001-18000 51+

No internet

31-50

up to 6000

Bellow secondary

up to 20

No mobile

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

_=0,881

_=0,105

The Development of a Cyberinfrastructure

Digital Divides Shaping Access

Digital Choices: Gender and Age?

Themes of Social Research

Generally speaking, how interested would yousay you are in the Internet (2005)

012

427

348

36159

3919

1 1760

0 20 40 60 80 100

%

Don't know

Very interested

Interested

Not very interested

Not at all interested

Users Drop-outs Non users

N=2,185 (All respondents)

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

____________________________________________________

Internet Use by Gender, circa 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Hungary

Iran Chile Spain Italy China Czech Macao BritainSwedenJapan

SingaporeCanada

USA

Male

Female

Internet Use by Life Stage, 2003-2005

Source: OxIS 2003, Number of respondents = 2,030 – OxIS 2005 Number of respondents = 2,185

Pupils: age 14-22 years and in full time education.Working age: employed of any age and all other persons not in employment up to age 55. Retired: 55 or over and not in employment.

98 97

67 68

2230

0102030405060708090

100

%

Pupils Working Age Retirees

2003

2005

Interest in the Internet by Age

66

7868

52

73

2127

32

47

21

7

2734

7379

93

0102030405060708090

100

14-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%

Not at all/not very interested Interested/very interested

N = 2,185 All respondents

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

____________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

Internet Use by Age, circa 2003

91%95%

80% 81%

60%

70%66%

45%

14%

37%32%

56%

63%73%

50%

75%

4%9%

12%

32%

22%

39%

12%

67%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

USA Korea Britain Japan Germany Spain Italy Hungary

16-24 35-44 55-64

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

Internet Use by Age, circa 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Iran

HungaryMacao China Spain Italy

Singapore

Czech Japan BritainSwedenCanadaUSA

16-24

35-44

55-64

Places of Access by Age

68

7

43

70

5657

42

2816

2913

1619

34

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%

1 3 or moreN = 1,309 (Current Internet users)

Always On Broadband

47

60

0

64

535046

3732

18

32

2226

22

40

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%

Only when I use it All the timeN = 1,309 (Current Internet users)

Multi-tasking by Age

41

75

7

73

4847

352831

297

1417

2924

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%

No Yes most of the timeN = 1,309 (Current Internet users)

The Development of a Cyberinfrastructure

Digital Divides and Choices Shaping Access

Internet, Google or TV Generation

Divides and Choices in Patterns of Use

Themes of Social Research

On average how often do you…..?

1. Several times a day2. Daily 3. Weekly4. Monthly5. Less than monthly6. Never

OxIS 2005 Question

92

87

83

78

77

74

71

66

66

61

56

55

54

54

48

47

45

42

39

39

36

33

33

26

22

21

17

13

13

10

10

9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

% of users

Check email

Product info

Surf/Browse

Look up fact

Travel plans

Buying online

Book travel

Send email attachments

Local events info

News

Instant messaging

Weather forecasts

Sports information

Downloading/listening to music

Play games

Look up word definition

Online banking

Look for jobs

School material

Paying bills

Look for jokes

Download/watch videos

Listen to radio

Chat

Family tree

Distant learning

Read blogs

Phone calls

Sexual sites

Invest stock & funds

Religious sites

Gamble

Factors Identified

1) Entertainment (find jokes; play games; download or listen to music; download or watch videos)

2) Information (get information about local events; look for news; look for sport news; check the weather)

3) Banking (paying bills; online banking; investing in stocks or funds)

4) Learning (look up a word definition; look up a fact; look for school information; distant learning)

5) Communication (check email; instant message; send email attachments)

6) Planning (make travel plans; look for jobs; book travel online)

e-Communication (2005)

92

6756

2613

0

1020

30

4050

60

7080

90

100

%

Check email Send emailattachments

Instantmessaging

Chat Phone calls

Users

N= 1,309 (Current Internet users)

e-Entertainment (2005)

53 4836 33 33

01020304050607080

90100

%

Downloadlisten to music

Play games Jokes Downloadwatch videos

Listen to radio

Users

N= 1,309 (Current Internet users)

ExcellentGoodFairBad/Poor

Self-rated Internet ability

2.50

2.00

1.50

Mean of e-Information

2.763

2.462

2.09

1.372

Use for Information by Expertise

e-Information by Age

One Way Anova: F = 3.7, Sig = .001

Look for Health Information by Age

3643 46 46

35

2528

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

% Yes

N = 1,309 Current Internet Users

e-Banking by Age

One Way Anova: F = 9.4, Sig = .000

75+65-7455-6445-5435-4425-3418-2414-17

Age

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

Mean of e-Entertainment

Use for Entertainment by Age

FemaleMale

Gender

2.15

2.10

2.05

2.00

1.95

1.90

1.85

1.80

1.75

Mean of e-Entertainment

Mean of Entertainment by Gender

FemaleMale

Gender

2.15

2.10

2.05

2.00

1.95

1.90

1.85

1.80

1.75

Mean of e-Entertainment

Mean of Entertainment by Gender

Secondary37,500 to 50,00012,500 to 25,000

Big city + suburbanSmall city

Bellow secondary [one 1]

25,000 to 37,500Up to 12,500

Travel plans

Female

31-50University

Over 50,000

News

Village + farm

Male

Weather

51+

up to 20

21-30 Local events

Job search

Blogs

Humour

Sports Family tree

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

? = 0.555

? = 0.250

Patterns of Use in Britain, 2005

Up to 12,500 Bellow secondary [one1 ]

12,500 to 25,000Small city

Secondary

up to 20

Games

Male

21-30

Music

Videos

Erotic sites

Gambling,sweepstakes

Religion

Over 50,000 University

Radio

Big city + suburban

51+

Vilage + farm Surfing,browsing

Female31-50

25,000 to 37,50037,500 to 50,000

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4

? = 0.554

? = 0.312

Patterns of Interest in Media Content in Britain, 2005

The Development of a Cyberinfrastructure

Digital Divides and Choices Shaping Access

Internet, Google or TV Generation

Divides and Choices in Patterns of Use

Developing Trust in an Experience Technology

Themes of Social Research

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Newspapers

Television

Internet

Mean reliability rating

2005

2003

How reliable and accurate would you rate the information found in/on …. ?

Source: OxIS 2003, N = 1717, 1965, 1985; OxIS 2005 N = 1507, 1944, 1886

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Major companies

The Government

Television news

Newspapers

Internet Providers

Mean confidence rating

2005

2003

How much confidence you have in the people running … [What about the Internet? How much confidence to you have in the people providing Internet services?]

Source: OxIS 2003, Number of respondents = 2,030; OxIS 2005 Number of respondents = 2,185

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Scientists

Doctors

People known

People in country

People online

Mean confidence rating

2005

2003

Please tell me how much confidence you have in the following groups of people …[Most people you can communicate with on the Internet.]

Source: OxIS 2003, Number of respondents = 2,030; OxIS 2005 Number of respondents = 2,185

The Development of a Cyberinfrastructure

Digital Divides and Choices Shaping Access

Internet, Google or TV Generation

Divides and Choices in Patterns of Use

Developing Trust in an Experience Technology

The Societal Impact: Reconfiguring Access

Themes of Social Research

Technological Determinism: Utopian v Dystopian

Perspectives on Social Impacts

Providing information online (2005)

18 16 16 14

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

Post pictures/photos

Distributionlist for email

Post ondiscussion/message

boards

Have awebsite

Keep a blog

Users

N= 1,309 (Current Internet users)(e) Proxy use

Technological Determinism: Utopian v Dystopian

Dual Effects

Perspectives on Social Impacts

Technological Determinism: Utopian v Dystopian

Dual Effects

Substitution

Perspectives on Social Impacts

____________________________________________________

Average Number of Hours per Week Watching TV:Internet Users and Non-Users

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sweden

Spain

Canada

Chile

China

Czech

Macao

USA

Singapore

Iran

Hungary

Japan

Britain

2005 Non-Use

2005 Users

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sweden Chile Macao USA Singapore Hungary Japan Britain

Number of Hours

2003 Users

2003 Non-Use

2005 Users

2005 Non-Use

____________________________________________________

Average Number of Hours per Week Watching TV:Internet Users and Non-Users

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

“Has the use of the Internet increased or decreased your contact with your family and friends?” (2005)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Singapore

USA IranCzech

HungaryMacao Spain

Sweden CanadaChina

IncreasedSame

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

Technological Determinism: Utopian v Dystopian

Dual Effects

Substitution

Domestication: Social Shaping of Technology

Perspectives on Social Impacts

Technological Determinism: Utopian v Dystopian

Dual Effects

Substitution

Reinforcement: Social Shaping of Technology

Reconfiguring Access

Perspectives on Social Impacts

Changing Cost Structures

Restructuring the Architecture of Networks

Redistributing Power between Senders-Receivers

Expanding, Contracting the Geography of Access

Creating or Eliminating Gatekeepers

Enabling or Disabling User Control

How ICTs Reconfigure Access:

Where would you go first if looking forinformation on… (2005)

241818

33

7

35

20

10

27

812

34

7

44

39

43

9

34

5

19

35

10

24

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

Name of localMP

Taxes Planningjourney/holiday

Book that youheard about

Local schools

Use the telephone Personally visit person/locationGo to book/directory Use the InternetDon't know

N=2,185 (All respondents)

Where would you go first for Information (Name of MP) by Age

19

39

8

2421201817

118 11

253740

48

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

%

Go to book/directory Use the InternetN = 1,309 (Current Internet users)

Do you read any newspapers or news serviceonline that you do not read in print? (2005)

80% No

20% Yes

Yes

No

N= 1,309 (Current Internet users)

Met people or made friends online – 2005

80% No

20% Yes

Yes

No

N= 1,309 (Current Internet users)

Friends Met Online, Britain 2005

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Mean

Median

Number

In person

Not in person

Source: OxIS: www.oii.ox.ac.uk/oxis/

Average Number of Online Friends Met in Person

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

_______________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

0.8

1.9

0.6

1.0

2.32.2

0.9

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

USA Korea Japan Singapore Spain Macao Hungary China(Urban)

Number of Online Friends Never Met in Person

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

____________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

2.6

3.2

1.1

2.83.3 3.3

7.7

0

2

4

6

8

USA Korea Japan Singapore Macao Hungary China(Urban)

Average Number of Online Friends Met in Person: by User Category

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.org/

____________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

0.40.7

0.20.4 0.6

1.00.6

0.9

1.7

3.64.0

0.9

3.73.4

3.9

3.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

USA Korea Japan Singapore Spain Macao Hungary China(Urban)

Light Users (Less than 5 hours a week)

Heavy Users ( 24 hours or more per week)

Average Number of Online Friends Never Met in Person by User Category

Source: http://www.worldinternetproject.net/

____________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

0.8 1.20.5 0.7

3.3 3.64.4

6.75.8

4.55.2

3.7

9.6

12.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

USA Korea Japan Singapore Macao Hungary China(Urban)

Light Users (Less than 5 hours a week)

Heavy Users (24 hours or more per week)

Infrastructure v. New Technology

Digital Divides

Digital Choices

Stratification of Age Groups: Generations

Experience Technologies

Reconfiguring Access

Emerging Themes of Social Research

Common Variables v. Identical Questions

Comparison of Within Systems Analyses

Qualitative Visualization v. Quantitative Precision

Multi-trait, Multi-method

Focus on Users v. Population as a Whole

Emerging Analytical Strategies

OxIS (Feb-March) 2007

OII, University of Oxford

www.oii.ox.ac.uk

E-mail: oxis at oii.ox.ac.uk