˘ ˇ - KQED · Map produced by TNC CA Science - 11/30/2009...

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O R E G O N

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K L A M A T HK L A M A T H

M O U N T A I N SM O U N T A I N S

E A S T E A S T

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M O D O C M O D O C

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V A L L E YV A L L E Y

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Santa

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Santa

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Needles

Redding

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Crescent City

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Blythe

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Los Angeles

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Map produced by TNC CA Science - 11/30/2009Z:\Projects\Pv1\mxds\Pv1_DSI_map_poster_noLGP.mxdThe Nature Conservancy (TNC) uses the most current and complete data available. GIS data and product accuracymay vary. Using GIS products for purposes other than those for which they were intended may yield inaccurate ormisleading results. TNC reserves the right to correct, update, modify, or replace GIS products without notification.

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DATA AND METHODS

The observed climate data are from the PRISM climate layers from 1900-1999 at 800m resolution. Tolearn more about this dataset and the methods used to generate it, please visithttp://www.prism.oregonstate.edu.

The future climate projection summaries were generated from 15 global climate models (GCMs) run tosupport the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Forth Assessment Report. To learn moreabout these data, please visit http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php. We converted anddownscaled these data using a change factor approach and a spline interpolation to match the 800mresolution of the PRISM data.

The drought stress index is calculated by comparing the future (2070-2099) 30-year mean projection ofannual precipitation for every 800m pixel to the observed annual precipitation values between 1900 and1999. The index is calculated based on the number of observed years that are greater than the futureprojection. Thus a value of 70 means that the future projection is drier than 70 of the 100 yearsbetween 1900 and 1999. We classified this value into the following categories: 0-50 is low, 50-66 ismedium, 66-99 is high, and 100 is unprecedented. We calculated these values for all 15 of the GCMs,and generated a standard deviation between these values. We consider a standard deviation of 20 orgreater as "high" uncertainty and a standard deviation of less than 20 as "low" uncertainty.