View
214
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
1
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Delivering Cost Data to the MoD to Support Business Cases
Paul Duvall Deputy Team Manager HVR Practice – Through Life Cost Modelling
Association of Cost Engineers
3 Nov 09
4
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Generic Process?
Whole Life Cost Model(Deterministic) £
MDAL(Master Document Assumptions List)
• SME Cost Assessments• Supplier Cost Data• Equipment Reliability Data• DLOD Base Assumption
Risk Register
• SME Risk Assessments
Probabilistic Risk Model
Whole Life Cost Model (Probabilistic)
£ ££ £
CapturesUncertainty
CapturesRisk
Provides 10, 50, 90%Confidence Figures
5
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Risk Modelling Terminology
UncertaintyCurrent Potential Variation in project cost or duration which will not be “firm” until contract sign-up= 3pt Range
RiskEvent which may or may not happenwhich would add to assumed project cost or duration= Probability * Impact
Opportunity Event which would reduce the assumed project cost or duration= Probability * Impact
6
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Measuring Confidence/Optimism Bias
50%
90%
Whole Life Cost
Pro
ba
bili
ty o
f O
cc
urr
en
ce
10%
Uncertainty
--Uncertainty & Post Mitigated
Risks
--Uncertainty & Pre Mitigated Risks
-
Uncertainty & Post Mitigation Risks +
Mitigation Cost-
SPE
50%
90%
Whole Life Cost
Pro
ba
bili
ty o
f O
cc
urr
en
ce
10%
Uncertainty
--Uncertainty & Post Mitigated
Risks
Uncertainty & Post Mitigated
Risks
--Uncertainty & Pre Mitigated Risks
Uncertainty & Pre Mitigated Risks
-
Uncertainty & Post Mitigation Risks +
Mitigation Cost
Uncertainty & Post Mitigation Risks +
Mitigation Cost-
SPESPE
7
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
CMTL
Allocation of Cost
• Input
− Defence Lines of Development
− TEPIDOIL (I)
− Training, Equipment, Personnel, Infrastructure, (Concepts &) Doctrine, Organisation, Information, Logistics………………… (Interoperability).
− Cost Resource Breakdown Structure (CRBS)
− PBS/WBS/BOM etc
• Output
− Budget Holder
− EPP/ESP
− RDEL/CDEL
− TLF
− Procurement, Upkeep, Update, Upgrade, Capital Spares, Fuels, Other Costs
8
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Current Issues
Allocation of Uncertainty
• Use of Global Uncertainty Factors
− Impact:
− uncertainty applied across ALL elements of model
− Does not reflect increasing uncertainty as estimate extends into the future
• Identification of Uncertainty
− Annualised or Totals?
Allocation of Risk
− Foreign Exchange Risk
− Correlation?
9
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Global Uncertainty
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
resultSingle
resultTwenty
resultHundred
11
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Through Life Costing Capability (Case Study)
Concept Assessment
IG MG
Demonstration Manufacture In-Service Disposal
Costing RequirementsBOI StudiesCost of OwnershipTrade StudiesOptions AnalysisAffordability AnalysisRisk Assessment
Costing RequirementsBOI StudiesCost of OwnershipTrade StudiesOptions AnalysisAffordability AnalysisRisk Assessment
Costing RequirementsBOI StudiesCost of OwnershipTrade StudiesOptions AnalysisStrategiesRisk Assessment
Costing RequirementsBOI StudiesCost of OwnershipTrade StudiesOptions AnalysisStrategiesRisk Assessment
Cost RequirementEarned value MeasurementWhole Life CostsCost of OwnershipTrade StudiesSupport Strategies
Cost RequirementEarned value MeasurementWhole Life CostsCost of OwnershipTrade StudiesSupport Strategies
Costing Requirement Earned Value MeasurementCost of OwnershipUpkeep Strategies
Costing Requirement Earned Value MeasurementCost of OwnershipUpkeep Strategies
Cost Forecasting Tools
OSCAMPortfolio
Cost Forecasting ToolsFACETOSCAMPortfolio
Bespoke WLF modelsCRBS, DLODS
Cost Forecasting ToolsFACETOSCAM
EVM toolsPortfolio
Bespoke WLF modelsCRBS, DLODS
FACET
12
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Concept Phase - Exemplar
Exemplar: Assessment of Options for Auxiliary Warship
• Family of Advanced Cost Estimating Tool (FACET) used to generate the acquisition cost for the development and manufacture of 6 ships.
• Using the established performance criteria key Design inputs were identified and agreed.
• Excursions:
− reduced displacement
− smaller helicopter or fewer larger helicopters
− fewer (vertical) replenishment points
13
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
Through Life Costing Capability (Concept)
Programme cost (2009 prices)
£0M £500M £700M £800M £900M £1000M £1100M
Iteration 1
Iteration 2
Iteration 3
Iteration 4
13101220 1400
11661078 1254
1027940 1114
838753 923
£1200M £1300M £1400M
Bu
dg
et
FACET provides the capability of generating iterations against variations in performance and design rapidly
Budget Line clearly indicates the difficulty of procuring 6 Auxiliary warships to meet the original KURs
Budget £1100 m
15
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
In-Service Phase Exemplar
OSCAM - Operational SupportCost Analysis Model
Can provide detailed analysis of support costs
Can provide rapid cost assessment
Can show effect of running options and allows comparison
16
© Copyright QinetiQ Limited 2009
In-Service Cost Option Analysis
Running Options (Exemplar)
• Baseline: aircraft maintenance based on three lines of maintenance
• Excursion: actions previously handled by the intermediate level are split between Govt (Organic) and Contractor Depots
Recommended