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WHEN AND HOW TO USE STATISTICSIN A UX WORLD
Niki Lin | niki.lin@internetarchitects.be | +32 471 01 34 39
A primer about good use of statistics
WHY ARE WE BAD WITH STATISTICS
We are good at assessing probability, but odds are we’re a bit off
1.
5
1. Why are we bad with statistics
Current Situation
A website generates statistics that cause ideas that lead to action
77
2. Measure and Compare
Is this already being measured?
› If you are measuring it, chances are, someone else already has• For UX on websites: SUS
› Review published literature to see how other researchers measure• How are items phrased and compared
• What scales are being used
• How close do our methods match published findings
11
3. Precision
Continuous statistics
• Google Analytics
measures everything
continuously
• This results in a different
approach to define a “test
group”
• When do we have enough
data to decide on an A/B
test?
13
3. Precision
Estimate example
• Idea: let’s set up a service
to sell t-shirts printed with
memes from 9gag.
• How can we estimate the
sales of this?
15
3. Precision
Estimate: Fermi equation
› Famously used by Drake to estimate the number of
extraterrestrial life
› Estimating things through the relation of entities
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3. Precision
Fermi equation: 9gag T-shirt
› How many users are on 9gag each month
› What percentage of users requires a shirt that month
› What percentage of shirts sold are shirts with memes
› How long are users on the site each month
› How many memes are exposed per time frame
› What percentage of meme are liked enough to want a shirt
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3. Precision
Fermi equation: 9gag T-shirt
Shirts Sold = Market Size x Need x Niche-interest x Time x Exposure x Selection
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3. Precision
Fermi equation: 9gag T-shirt
10 000 000 visitors/month (in the US)
times 5/12 shirts needed/visitor/month
Times 5/30 000 meme-shirts bought/ shirts needed (global)
Times 297 view-minutes / user / month
Times 11 memes-seen / view-minutes
Times 1/300 memes-liked-to-buy / memes-seen
Equals 7 562 average number of meme shirts bought per month by the users
22
4. What to do with all those results?
Back to the current Situation
A website generates statistics that cause ideas that lead to action
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4. What to do with all those results?
Deciding afterwards…
Statistics that cause ideas that leads to action
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4. What to do with all those results?
… results in an emotional decision
Statistics that cause ideas that leads to action are often emotional
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4. What to do with all those results?
So what’s wrong?
A website generates statistics that cause ideas that lead to action
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4. What to do with all those results?
Add a plan
Plan an action plan about statistics that defines action plans
B
A
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