The role of Electrical vehicles in Europe

The role of Electrical vehicles in Europe -

Outcome from the ERA-Net Project EV-STEP

PD. Dr. Markus Blesl

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung,

Universität Stuttgart

Copenhagen, Electro-mobility and EV-Step regional workshop

17th November 2014

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Motivation and objective

● What will be the perspective electro-mobility in the transport sector of

the EU-28 as a whole and in the countries is one main question at the

moment ?

● Varied assumptions concerning energy, climate and environmental

policy in the EU can have impact on the role of electro-mobility.

● The penetration of electric vehicle concepts can have impacts on the

sustainability of both, transport sector and the total energy system.

2

Analyze with a scenario analysis the role of electro-mobility in the

energy system in the EU-28 and there member states

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 3

TIMES PanEU

• Technology oriented bottom-up partial equilibrium model

• 30 region model (EU 28, No, CH, IS)

• Energy system model

• SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, ocean, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro)

• Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants

• Residential and Commercial: End use technologies (space heating, water heating, space cooling and others)

• Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), food, other industries, autoproducer and boilers

• Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation

• Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use technologies

• Time horizon 2010 - 2050

• GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Schematic representation of the consideration

of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) energy storage in

TIMES PanEU

• Idea: Electric vehicles (BEV, PHEV) serve as energy storage if connected to grid

• Thus, they could provide (peak) electricity if necessary

• Recharging during off - peak times

• However, keep sufficient energy for vehicle trips

• Additional battery cycles decrease battery lifetime!

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

5 /

38

Development of specific investment cost of

batteries

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 6

Overview of the scenarios

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population Mio. 497 500 499 491 476

Average growth per annum % 0,01 0,00 -0,2 -0,3

GDP 1012€07 12,0 15,1 17,9 20,9 24,5

Average growth per annum % 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6

REF REF- EU EU-GHG reduction

target

Renewable

Electromobility national targets no national targets no

Biofuels national targets no national targets no

EU-ETS: -21% till 2020 comp. 2005

afterwards -1,74% p.a.

Overall GHG reduction -20% till

2020 and -80% till 2050

Increasing reliance on RES, 60% share in electricity consumption

2050

Social economic assumptions:

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Mobility demand in the EU28

7 /

38

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

EU-28

Passenger traffic

(without aviation) Bio.

Pkm 5.857 6.458 6.796 6.884 6.911

car/motorcycles % 83,6 83,8 84,0 84,2 84,5

bus % 8,8 8,4 8,1 7,9 7,7

train % 7,6 7,8 7,9 7,9 7,8

Aviation PJ 2.066 2.947 3.399 3.634 3.787

Good transport Bio. tkm 2.549 3.268 3.762 4.009 4.133

trucks % 72,3 74,8 75,1 75,2 75,0

rail % 16,7 14,7 14,4 14,5 14,6

navigation % 11,0 10,4 10,5 10,3 10,3

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Scenario analysis CO2 Emissions (EU-28)

8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

40002010

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2020 2030 2040 2050

Em

iss

ion

s o

f C

O2

[Mt]

International Aviation

Transport (without int. Aviation)

Agriculture

Commercial

Residential

Industry

Conversion, production

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Net Electricity Supply (EU-28)

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

45002010

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2020 2030 2040 2050

Sh

are

of

ren

ew

ab

le e

lec

tric

ity g

en

era

tio

n o

f to

tal

gro

ss

ele

ctr

icit

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n

Ne

t e

lec

tric

ity s

up

ply

[T

Wh

]

Electricity storage(excl. pump storage)Electricity ImportsDesertecNet Imports w/oDesertecOthers / Waste non-ren.

Other Renewables

Biomass / Waste ren.

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Hydro (incl. pumpstorage)Nuclear

Gas CCS

Gas w/o CCS

Oil

Lignite CCS

Lignite w/o CCS

Coal CCS

Coal w/o CCS

Share of renewableenergies

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Final Energy Consumption Electricity (EU-28)

10

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000M

od

ell

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ele

ctr

icit

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n [

PJ

]

Agriculture

Transport

Residential

Industry

Commercial

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Final energy consumption transport by

transport mode(EU-28)

11

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000S

tati

sit

c

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

fin

al

en

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n

[PJ

]

navigation

aviation

rail

trucks

Bus

individualtransport

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000S

tati

sit

c

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al

en

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n [

PJ

]

Others

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Electricty

Gas

Kerosin

Gasoline

Diesel

Final energy consumption transport by

energy carier (EU-28)

12 /

38

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 13 / 3

7208

62266362

62116326

5392

5693

5386

5608

4725

5149

4450

4669

4201

4723

2943

3222

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000S

tati

sit

c

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

fin

al en

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n [

PJ]

Others

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Electricty

Gas

Kerosin

Gasoline

Diesel

Final energy consumption cars by energy

carrier (EU-28)

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 14

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Sta

tistic

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

ca

r s

toc

k i

n

[10

00

ve

h]

others

FCEV + FCHEV

BEV + PHEV

HEV (all fuels)

gas (natural gas,LPG)

bio liquides

conventional(gasoline, diesel,biofuel blending)

Stock of cars by engine type (EU-28)

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Stock of trucks and buses (EU-28)

15

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Sta

tistic

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

RE

F

RE

F-

EU

EU

-

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

tru

cks a

nd

bu

s s

tock [

1000 v

eh

]

others

FCEV +FCHEV

BEV + PHEV

HEV (all fuels)

gas (naturalgas, LPG)

bio liquides

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe

Conclusion and Outlook

16

● The penetration of electrical vehicles not only depends on the share

of renewables it is influenced mainly by the GHG reduction target.

● Till 2030 the assumed cost reduction for batteries and the GHG

reduction targets are to low to bring electro-mobility in the transport

sector without subsidies.

● Supporting electro-mobility influence the penetration in the midterm,

in the long term it’s the option to decarbonize the transport sector.

● A sensitivity analysis related the battery cost and the share of

renewable electricity generation of the gross electricity generation will

follow.

Markus Blesl 17th November 2014 The role of electrical vehicles in Europe 17 / 38

Thank you for your

attention !

Heßbrühlstr. 49a, 70565 Stuttgart

Tel.: +49 711 / 685 878 65

E-mail: Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de

IER Institut für Energiewirtschaft Rationelle Energieanwendung